Advantages and Limitations of Discovery Process Modeling: The Case of the Northern West Siberian Gas Plays

Abstract

Discovery process modeling represents one of the most advanced tools available for hydrocarbon resource assessment of plays in semimature to mature areas. Information on the underlying size/frequency distribution of hydrocarbon pools and on the efficiency of exploratory effort are combined to estimate the number and sizes of undiscovered fields. This methodology, along with complimentary statistical validation tests, has been most fully developed in the computer software written at the Geological Survey of Canada (GSC).

Direct incorporation of geologic judgement is viewed as a key advantage to the GSC methodology. The problems of play definition and of accurately reflecting the incorporated subjectivity in the analysis are of critical importance in its application by those engaged in hydrocarbon exploration. Several ad hoc procedures are developed to handle those problems. These issues are examined in the case of assessing the undiscovered potential of the world’s richest gas province: the northern West Siberian Basin.