Optimal Exploration Strategies: The Synthesis of Resource Assessments and Operations Research

Abstract

Resource appraisals or assessments provide a quantitative and rational foundation upon which subsequent decisions may be based. The appraisals are, however, generally relegated to or accorded a passive role in decision making. Eschewing this quantitative facet of resource appraisals diminishes the options open to the decision maker in formulating and comparing different exploration strategies or policies and hence his effectiveness. To illustrate the synthesis of resource appraisals and Operations Research to determine an optimal exploration strategy, a multiobjective decision problem is formulated to aid in allocating exploration effort in the search for Kuroko type Zn-Ag-Pb deposits in Greece. The decision model consists of two parts: 1. The optimal exploration budget was calculated for each area by maximizing the expected posterior expected monetary value. 2. Based on the area budget, exploration effort is divided between standard geologic field procedures and geophysical studies by simultaneously maximizing the probability of detection and the expected gain in information. In part 2 there are two decision variables. The multiobjective problem was solved by assuming that there was no articulation of preference, thus allowing a global criterion to be used.