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A Model of the Influence of Certainty and Probability “Effects” on the Measurement of Utility

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Risk, Decision and Rationality

Part of the book series: Theory and Decision Library ((TDLB,volume 9))

Abstract

This study documents a model of how certainty and probability “effects” independently produce two kinds of differences between individual preferences and the expected utility model. First, the use of certainty equivalents in the measurement of preferences results in an effect similar to but more subtle than that previously demonstrated: the dependence of the utility functions on probability is intensified by an individual’s degree of risk aversion. Secondly, both the use of certainty and individual perceptions of probability combine independently to generate preferences which concord with Kahneman and Tversky in that they are not linear in probability.

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References

  • Cohen, M. and Jaffray, J.-Y. (1985), ‘Certainty effect vs. probability distortion: an experimental analysis of decisionmaking under risk, ’ draft manuscript.

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  • Hershey, J., Kunreuther, H. and Schoemaker, P. (1982), ‘Sources of Bias in Assessment Procedures for Utility Functions,’ Management Science, 28, 936–954.

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  • Mccord, M. and de Neufville, R. (1983), ‘Empirical Demonstration that Expected Utility Decision Analysis is not Operational,’ in Stigum and Wenstop, eds., Foundations of Utility and Risk Theory with Applications, D. Reidel, Dordrecht, Holland.

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  • Mccord, M. and de Neufville, R. (1986), ‘Lottery equivalents: reduction of the certainty effect problem in utility assessment,’ Management Science, 32, 56–60

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© 1988 D. Reidel Publishing Company, Dordrecht, Holland

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de Neufville, R., Delquie, P. (1988). A Model of the Influence of Certainty and Probability “Effects” on the Measurement of Utility. In: Munier, B.R. (eds) Risk, Decision and Rationality. Theory and Decision Library, vol 9. Springer, Dordrecht. https://doi.org/10.1007/978-94-009-4019-2_13

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  • DOI: https://doi.org/10.1007/978-94-009-4019-2_13

  • Publisher Name: Springer, Dordrecht

  • Print ISBN: 978-94-010-8283-9

  • Online ISBN: 978-94-009-4019-2

  • eBook Packages: Springer Book Archive

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