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Recent Developments in Technological Forecasting

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Book cover Forecasting in the Social and Natural Sciences

Abstract

Technological forecasting means the prediction of characteristics or use of “technology.” The methods used by technological forecasters are in principle no different from those used by forecasters in other application areas. However, the unique problems of the field require that the methods be adapted to those problems. This paper discusses recent developments involving refinements in the methods which have been in use for the past several decades. It also describes some important recent work on estimating upper limits to the progress of technologies, and on quantitative measures of multi-attribute technologies. Finally, it discusses several issues common to all forecasting application areas, as they are dealt with in technological forecasting. These issues include validation, disasters of forecasting, determinism in forecasting, and some examples of forecasts with practical applications.

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Author information

Authors and Affiliations

  1. University of Dayton, Dayton, OH, 45469, USA

    Joseph P. Martino

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  1. Joseph P. Martino
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Editor information

Editors and Affiliations

  1. Department of Sociology, Duke University, Durham, NC, USA

    Kenneth C. Land

  2. N.C.A.R., Boulder, CO, USA

    Stephen H. Schneider

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© 1987 D. Reidel Publishing Company

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Martino, J.P. (1987). Recent Developments in Technological Forecasting. In: Land, K.C., Schneider, S.H. (eds) Forecasting in the Social and Natural Sciences. Springer, Dordrecht. https://doi.org/10.1007/978-94-009-4011-6_9

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  • DOI: https://doi.org/10.1007/978-94-009-4011-6_9

  • Publisher Name: Springer, Dordrecht

  • Print ISBN: 978-94-010-8279-2

  • Online ISBN: 978-94-009-4011-6

  • eBook Packages: Springer Book Archive

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