Abstract
The Delphi technique for judgmental forecasting by expert groups is described and the controversy surrounding its use is summarized. The technique clearly does not eliminate all unwanted psychological effects on group judgment. Furthermore, the design of most Delphi studies makes it impossible to separate the signal from the noise in expert judgment. A methodological standard for evaluating judgmental forecasts is proposed.
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© 1987 D. Reidel Publishing Company
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Stewart, T.R. (1987). The Delphi Technique and Judgmental Forecasting. In: Land, K.C., Schneider, S.H. (eds) Forecasting in the Social and Natural Sciences. Springer, Dordrecht. https://doi.org/10.1007/978-94-009-4011-6_5
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DOI: https://doi.org/10.1007/978-94-009-4011-6_5
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