Abstract
This article demonstrates the importance of context on forecast errors. It describes the development of an unrealistic transportation planning forecast for Denver, Colorado, noting its influence on air quality planning for Denver. The importance of two contextual features, procedural rationality and conflict of interest, to the introduction of error is discussed. The case described implies that different decision-making contexts define different rules of rationality, and substantive rationality may not fit the rules. The type of context and not necessarily a code of ethics will determine this.
“As for the Future, your task is not to forsee, but to enable it.” (Antoine de Saint-Exupéry)
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© 1987 D. Reidel Publishing Company
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Dennis, R.L. (1987). Forecasting Errors: The Importance of the Decision-Making Context. In: Land, K.C., Schneider, S.H. (eds) Forecasting in the Social and Natural Sciences. Springer, Dordrecht. https://doi.org/10.1007/978-94-009-4011-6_4
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DOI: https://doi.org/10.1007/978-94-009-4011-6_4
Publisher Name: Springer, Dordrecht
Print ISBN: 978-94-010-8279-2
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