The Development of Transmission Systems in the UK A Fifteen-Year Forecast

Abstract

It is necessary to stress from the start that the long-term forecasting of social and technological trends has, in general, an extremely poor record of accuracy. The Delphi method, in particular, has been critized, rightly in my view, for merely amplifying the prejudices and wish-fulfillment of a narrow group of experts. But trying to make long term forecasts of the likely development of transmission technologies and their impact upon the media industries in the ECc countries is at the,present time of especially dubious value for three reasons. First because we are dealing with a periode of rapid technological development. But secondly and more importantly because technological development in this field is increasingly market-driven. That is to say both research and development and implementation are determined by calculations of the likely demand for the services which these transmission technologies will carry. Thirdly the structure and development of those markets are heavily influenced by political decisions, eg the Franco-German DBS project. Both the time scale of economic decisions determined by the market and by resulting investment risk calculations and of political decision making, themselves increasingly determined by market calculations, are inherently short-term.