Skip to main content

The time dimension in perception and communication of risk

  • Chapter

Part of the book series: Technology, Risk, and Society ((RISKGOSO,volume 4))

Abstract

Ideally, risk communications should transmit unbiased information about risks. Based on this information, prior knowledge, and values, the receiver should then be able to arrive at a well-grounded judgment or decision concerning how to act in relation to the risk in focus. Here, action stands for a continuum from no interest at all, increasing strength of attitude or opinion about the risk, to real action.

This is a preview of subscription content, log in via an institution.

Buying options

Chapter
USD   29.95
Price excludes VAT (USA)
  • Available as PDF
  • Read on any device
  • Instant download
  • Own it forever
eBook
USD   169.00
Price excludes VAT (USA)
  • Available as EPUB and PDF
  • Read on any device
  • Instant download
  • Own it forever
Softcover Book
USD   219.99
Price excludes VAT (USA)
  • Compact, lightweight edition
  • Dispatched in 3 to 5 business days
  • Free shipping worldwide - see info
Hardcover Book
USD   219.99
Price excludes VAT (USA)
  • Durable hardcover edition
  • Dispatched in 3 to 5 business days
  • Free shipping worldwide - see info

Tax calculation will be finalised at checkout

Purchases are for personal use only

Learn about institutional subscriptions

Preview

Unable to display preview. Download preview PDF.

Unable to display preview. Download preview PDF.

References

  • Arabie, P. and C. Maschmeyer. 1988. Some current model for the perception and judgment of risk. Organizational Behavior and Decision Processes 41: 300–329.

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • Arrow, K. 1970. Essays in the theory of risk bearing. Chicago: Markham.

    Google Scholar 

  • Baird, J.C. 1984. Prediction of environmental risk over long time scales. Department of Psychology and Mathematics/Social Science, Dartmouth College, manuscript.

    Google Scholar 

  • Balachandra, R. 1980. Perceived usefulness of technological forecasting techniques. Technological Forecasting and Social Change 16: 155–66.

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • Björkman, M. 1984. Decision making, risk taking, and psychological time: Review of empirical findings and psychological theory. Scandinavian Journal of Psychology 44: 31–49.

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • Boniecki, G.J. 1978. Man’s concern for his future still in doubt. Internationaljournal of Psychology 13: 239–44.

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • Boniecki, G. 1980. What are the limits to man’s time and space perspectives? Toward a definition of a realistic planning horizon. Technological Forecasting and Social Change 17: 161–75.

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • Bowman, C.H., M. Fischbein, H.J. Otway and K. Thomas. 1978. The prediction of voting behavior in a nuclear energy referendum. RM-78–8. Laxenburg, Astria: International Institute for Applied Systems Analysis.

    Google Scholar 

  • Christensen-Szalanski, J.J.J. 1984. Discount functions and the measurement of patients’ values: Women’s decision during childbirth. Medical Decision Making 4: 47–58.

    Article  CAS  Google Scholar 

  • Christensen-Szalanski, J.J.J. 1985. Patient compliance behavior: The effects of time on patient’s values of treatment regimens. Social Science and Medicine 21: 263–273.

    Article  CAS  Google Scholar 

  • Cohen, J. 1964. Psychological time. Scientific American 5: 116–24.

    Google Scholar 

  • Debrew, G. 1959. Theory of value. New York: Wiley.

    Google Scholar 

  • Easterbrook, J. A. 1959. The effect of emotion on cue utilization and the organization of behavior. Psychological Review 60:183–201.

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • Ekman, G. and O. Bratfish. 1965. Subjective distance and emotional involvement: A psychological mechanism. Acta Psychologica 24: 446–53.

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • Ekman, G. and U. Lundberg. 1971. Emotional reaction to past and future events as a function of temporal distance. Acta Psychologica 35: 430–41.

    Article  CAS  Google Scholar 

  • Ferejohn, J. and P. Page. 1977. On the foundations of intertemporal choice. Social Science

    Google Scholar 

  • Working Paper No. 196. Pasadena; Humanities and Social Science California Institute of Technology.

    Google Scholar 

  • Festinger, L. 1964. Conflict, decision and dissonance. Stanford; Stanford University Press.

    Google Scholar 

  • Fischhoff, B., P. Slovic, S. Lichtenstein, S. Read and B. Combs. 1978. How safe is safe enough? A psychometric study of attitudes towards technological risks and benefits. Policy Sciences 9: 127–52.

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • Fischhoff, B. 1975. Hindsight is not equal to foresight: The effect of out-come knowledge on judgments under uncertainty. Journal of Experimental Psychology: HPP 1: 288–299.

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • Fischhoff, B. and R. Beyth. 1975. “I knew it would happen”—Remembered probabilities of once-future things. Organizational Behavior and Human Performance 13: 1–16.

    Google Scholar 

  • Frank, L.K. 1939. Time perspectives. Journal of Social Philosophy 4: 293–312.

    Google Scholar 

  • Goldrich, J.M. 1967. A study in time orientation: The relation between memory for past experience and orientation to the future. Journal of Personality and Social Psychology 6: 216–21.

    Article  CAS  Google Scholar 

  • Grommen, R. 1973. Tijdsperspectief en varieteit van aspiraties in volwassenheid en ouderdom. Unpublished doctoral dessertation, University of Leiden.

    Google Scholar 

  • Hawkins, S.A. and R. Halstie. 1990. Hindsight: Biased judgments of past events after the outcomes are known. Psychological Bulletin 107: 311–327.

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • Holsti, O.R. 1971. Crisis, stress and decision making. International Social Science Journal 23: 53–67.

    Google Scholar 

  • Hultsch, D.F. and R.W. Brotner. 1974. Personal time perspective in adulthood: A time-sequential study. Developmental Psychology 10: 835–7.

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • Janis, I.L.A. and L. Mann. 1977. Decision making: A psychological analysis of conflict, choice, and commitment. London: Collier, MacMillan.

    Google Scholar 

  • Jevons, W.S. 1905. Essays on economics. London: MacMillan.

    Google Scholar 

  • Jones, E.E. and L.A. Johnson. 1973. Delay of consequences and the riskiness of decisions. Journal of Personality 41: 613–37.

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • Jungerman, H. and F. Fleischer. 1985. As time goes by: Psychological determinates of time preferences. Paper presented at the Conference on “Time preference” Wissenschaftszentrum, December 16–17.

    Google Scholar 

  • Karlsson, G. and O. Svenson. 1987. Psychological aspects of nuclear waste disposal: long time perception and the question of discounting of risk. Swedish National Board for Spent Nuclear Fuel. Report 21.

    Google Scholar 

  • Keren, G. 1983. Cultural differences in the misperception of exponential growth. Perception and Psychophysics 34: 289–93.

    Article  CAS  Google Scholar 

  • Klineberg, I. 1968. Future time perspective and the preference for delayed reward. Journal of Personality and Social Psychology 8: 253–257.

    Article  CAS  Google Scholar 

  • Klineberg, S.L. 1967. Changes in the outlook on the future between childhood and adolescence. Journal of Personality and Social Psychology 7: 185–93.

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • Kok, G. 1983. The further away, the less serious: Effects of temporal distance on perceived value and probability of a future event. Psychological Reports 52: 531–35.

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • Lee, W. 1972. Temporal and contextual effects on utility (manuscript).

    Google Scholar 

  • Lewin, K. 1938. The conceptual representation and the measurement of psychological forces. Contemporary Psychological Theory 1:4.

    Google Scholar 

  • Loewenstein, G. 1986. The economics of intertemporal choice: A critical history. Chicago: Center for Decision Research, The University of Chicago.

    Google Scholar 

  • Lundberg, U., J.M. von Wright, M. Frankenheuser and U.J. Olson. 1975. Involvement in four future events as a function of temporal distance. Scandinavian Journal of Psychology 16: 2–6.

    Article  CAS  Google Scholar 

  • Makridakis, S. 1984. Judgmental biases in applied decision making situations. Acta Psychologica, manuscript.

    Google Scholar 

  • Matulef, N.J., R.E. Warman and T.C. Brock 1964. Effects of brief vocational counseling on temporal orientation. Journal of Counselling Psychology 11: 352–6.

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • McGrath, J.E. 1988. The social psychology of time. London: Sage.

    Google Scholar 

  • McNiel, B. J.: Pauker, S.G.: Sox, H.C. and A. Tversky 1982. On the elicitation of preferences for alternative therapies. The New England Journal of Medicine 21: 1259–1262.

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • Miller, N.E. 1959. Liberalization of basic S-R concepts. In S. Koch (ed.), Psychology: A study of a science, Vol. 2. New York: McGraw-Hill.

    Google Scholar 

  • Mischel, W. and J. Grusec. 1967. Waiting for rewards and punishments: Effects of time and probability on choice. Journal of Personality and Social Psychology 5: 24–31.

    Article  CAS  Google Scholar 

  • Mischel, W., J. Grusec and J.C. Masters. 1969. Effects of expected delay time on the subjective value of rewards and punishment. Journal of Personality and Social Psychology 11: 363–373.

    Article  CAS  Google Scholar 

  • Mishan, E.J. and T. Page. 1979. The methodology of cost benefit analysis, with particular reference to the ozone problem. Social Studies Working Paper, No. 249. Pasadena: California Institute of Technology.

    Google Scholar 

  • Nuttin, J. 1985. Future time perspective and motivation: Theory and research methods. Hillsdale: Lawrence Erlbaum.

    Google Scholar 

  • Page, T. 1977. Conservation and economic efficiency. Baltimore: John Hopkins.

    Google Scholar 

  • Platt, J.J., R. Eisenman, D. de Lisser and A. Darbes. 1971. Temporal perspective as a personality dimension in college students: A re-evaluation. Perceptual and Motor Skills 33: 103–109.

    Article  CAS  Google Scholar 

  • Ramsey, F. 1928. A mathematical theory of savings. Economic Journal 38: 543–559.

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • Shaklee, H. 1987. Estimating cumulative risk: Flood and contraceptive failure. Eugene Research Institute. Presented at Psychonomic Science meeting in Seattle November.

    Google Scholar 

  • Shybut, J. 1968. Time perspective, internal vs. external control, and severity of psychological disturbance. Journal of Clinical Psychology 24: 312–5.

    Article  CAS  Google Scholar 

  • Slovic, P., B. Fischhoff and S. Lichtenstein. 1979. Accident probabilities and seat belt usage: A psychological perspective. Accident Analysis and Prevention 10: 281–285.

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • Slovic, P., B. Fischhoff and S. Lichtenstein. 1980. Characterizing perceived risk. In R. W. Kates, C. Hohenemser, and J.X. Kasperson (eds). Perilous progress: Managing the Hazards of Technology 91–125. Boulder: Westview Press, M.

    Google Scholar 

  • Stevenson, M.K. 1986. A discounting model for decisions with delayed positive or negative outcomes. Journal of Experimental Psychology: General 115: 131–154.

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • Svenson, O.1977. Intuitive extrapolation of a growth function. Scandinavian Journal of Psychology 18: 339–44.

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • Svenson, O. 1973. Cognitive processes in judging cumulative risk over different periods of time. Organizational Behavior and Human Performance 33: 22–41.

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • Svenson, O.1984. Time perception and long-term risks. Canadian Journal of Information Processing and Operational Research 22: 196–214.

    Google Scholar 

  • Svenson, O.1985. Cognitive strategies in a complex judgment task: Analyses of concurrent verbal reports and judgments of cumulated risk over different exposure times. Organizational Behavior and Human Decision Processes 36: 1–15.

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • Svenson, O. and L.J. Benthorn. 1990. Postdecision change in attractiveness of decision alternatives. Manuscript.

    Google Scholar 

  • Svenson, O. and A. Edland. 1987. Change of preferences under time pressure: Choices and judgments. Scandinavian Journal of Psychology 28: 322–334.

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • Svenson, O., A. Edland and P. Slovic. 1990. Choices and judgments of incompletely described decision alternatives under time pressure. Acta Psychologica, in press.

    Google Scholar 

  • Svenson, O. and B. Fischhoff. 1985. Levels of environmental decisions. Journal of Environmental Psychology 5: 55–67.

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • Svenson, O. and G. Karlsson. 1988. Decision making, time horizons and risk in the very long perspective. Unpublished.

    Google Scholar 

  • Svenson, O. and G. Nilsson. 1988. Time orientation, planning horizons and responsibility into theT future. SKN Report No. 20. Stockholm: Swedish National Board for Spent Nuclear Fuel. No. 20.

    Google Scholar 

  • Teahan, J.E. 1958. Future time perspective, optimism, and academic achievement. Journal of Abnormal and Social Psychology 57: 379–80.

    Article  CAS  Google Scholar 

  • Wagenaar, W.A. and S.D. Sagaria. 1975. Misperception of exponential growth. Perception & Psychophysics 18: 416–22.

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • Wagenaar, W.A. and H. Timmers. 1978. Extrapolation of exponential time series is not enhanced by having more points. Perception & Psychophysics 24: 182–4.

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • Wagenaar, W.A. and H. Timmers. 1979. The pond-and-duckweed problem; three experiments on the misperception of exponential growth. Acta Psychologica 43: 239–51.

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • Wallace, M. and A.I. Rabin. 1960. Temporal experience. Psychological Bulletin 57: 213–36.

    Article  CAS  Google Scholar 

  • Vlek, C. and P.J. Stallen. 1981. Judging risk and benefits in the small and the large. Organizational Behavior and Human Behavior 28: 235–71.

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • de Voider, M. 1979. Time orientation: A review. Psychologie Belgique 19: 61–79.

    Google Scholar 

  • von Wright, J.M. and R. Kinnunen. 1976. Scale of involvement in personal and global future events. Turku: University of Turku, Psychological Reports no 22.

    Google Scholar 

  • Wright, P. and B. Weitz. 1977. Time horizon effects on product evaluation strategies. Journal of Marketing Research 14: 429–443.

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • Örtendahl, M. and L. Sjöberg. 1979. Delay of outcome and preference for different courses of action. Perceptual and Motor Skills, Monograph Supplement 48: 3–57.

    Article  Google Scholar 

Download references

Authors

Editor information

Editors and Affiliations

Rights and permissions

Reprints and permissions

Copyright information

© 1991 Kluwer Academic Publishers

About this chapter

Cite this chapter

Svenson, O. (1991). The time dimension in perception and communication of risk. In: Kasperson, R.E., Stallen, P.J.M. (eds) Communicating Risks to the Public. Technology, Risk, and Society, vol 4. Springer, Dordrecht. https://doi.org/10.1007/978-94-009-1952-5_13

Download citation

  • DOI: https://doi.org/10.1007/978-94-009-1952-5_13

  • Publisher Name: Springer, Dordrecht

  • Print ISBN: 978-94-010-7372-1

  • Online ISBN: 978-94-009-1952-5

  • eBook Packages: Springer Book Archive

Publish with us

Policies and ethics