Abstract
Because of the severity of the damage that can be caused by floods, and the high cost of controlling this damage, it is always important to calculate the size of flood-control structures as precisely as possible. An over-design normally results in unnecessary costs, while an under-design can pose a risk to human life and property. One flood characteristic which is very important in the design of flood-control structures, is the discharge corresponding to a return period T. We shall present a critical review of some of the methods developed in recent years for estimating this discharge, X T . This estimation is usually done by assuming the recorded flood discharges to come from a known probability distribution, an assumption which in itself leads to a certain error which is difficult to evaluate. To choose between different distributions, there are statistical tests which can be used. We shall discuss these tests, and give some general remarks on some of the various distributions that are currently employed in practice for flood frequency analysis. Main emphasis will be put on the log Pearson type 3 distribution, which is recommended both in the U.S. (by the Water Resources Council), and in Australia. The fitting of this distribution can be done by a number of methods. We shall present these methods by focusing on:
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the practical value of the method;
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the performance of the method with samples of small size, frequently found in hydrology.
After adjusting the LP distribution to the data, using a certain fitting technique, it is important to calculate the variance, and confidence intervals, for flood events X T . To do this, the common practice in hydrology is to use normal-asymptotic theory, an approach rarely adequate for samples of small size. It is therefore necessary when dealing with small samples, to look for alternative methods. Some recent research has been done in this direction, both in hydrology and in other fields. This research has been successful with many distributions and among them the log Pearson type 3. We shall discuss these recently developed methods, and focus on their advantages.
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© 1988 D. Reidel Publishing Company
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Bobée, B., Ashkar, F. (1988). Review of Statistical Methods for Estimating Flood Risk with Special Emphasis on the Log Pearson Type 3 Distribution. In: El-Sabh, M.I., Murty, T.S. (eds) Natural and Man-Made Hazards. Springer, Dordrecht. https://doi.org/10.1007/978-94-009-1433-9_25
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DOI: https://doi.org/10.1007/978-94-009-1433-9_25
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