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Global Change: Population, Land-Use and Vegetation in the Mediterranean Basin by the Mid-21st Century

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Book cover Greenhouse Effect, Sea Level and Drought

Part of the book series: NATO ASI Series ((ASIC,volume 325))

Abstract

The likelihood of a temperature increase induced by the release of CO2 and other warming gases in the atmosphere is discussed. A 3°C increase in the Mediterranean Basin by the mid-21st century is retained as a plausible assumption arising from a number of Global Circulation Models. The possible consequences of such a temperature rise on vegetation, crops and land-use are analysed. On the whole, in spit of some negative aspects, the consequences would seem rather beneficial to the North of the basin. However, they would be seriously detrimental to the South due to increased aridity. In the southern basin the consequences of a possible climatic change would however be trivial by comparison with the impact of the ongoing population growth. The present 285 million people in the 14 Afro-Asian Mediterranean countries considered in the study could reach, depending on different growth scenarios and projections, a low of 0.8 billion and a high of 1.95 billion by the year 2050. The impact of such a population explosion would be similar to that arising from geological considerations, further worsened by increasing aridity from rising evapotranspiration. The northern basin would thus undergo a phase of biostasis while the southern basin would be submitted to an acute phase of rhexistasis.

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  1. CEFE & CNEARC, Montpellier, France

    H. N. Le Houerou Ph.D., D. Sc

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  1. H. N. Le Houerou Ph.D., D. Sc
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  1. Earth Technology Institute, Vrije Universiteit Brussel and Belgian Geological Survey, Brussels, Belgium

    Roland Paepe

  2. GSFC Institute for Space Studies, NASA, New York, NY, USA

    Rhodes W. Fairbridge

  3. Geological Survey of the Netherlands, Haarlem, The Netherlands

    Saskia Jelgersma

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Le Houerou, H.N. (1990). Global Change: Population, Land-Use and Vegetation in the Mediterranean Basin by the Mid-21st Century. In: Paepe, R., Fairbridge, R.W., Jelgersma, S. (eds) Greenhouse Effect, Sea Level and Drought. NATO ASI Series, vol 325. Springer, Dordrecht. https://doi.org/10.1007/978-94-009-0701-0_19

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