Abstract
Estimates of upper bound magnitudes of seismic sources based on historical seismicity are commonly used as scaling parameters in areas that lack identified causative faults. The analysis of the earthquake catalogue of Slovenia and surrounding areas showed that for the region of Slovenia a doubly truncated exponential frequency-magnitude relationship may serve directly for this purpose, taking into account the following assumptions:
(1) The value of the upper bound magnitude, for which the corresponding least-squares estimator of the decay rate has a minimum standard error, is an optimal historical seismicity estimate of the upper bound magnitude.
(2) The difference between the estimated upper bound magnitude and the largest observed magnitude in an area with a well-defined earthquake catalogue is an appropriate increment (typically 0.1 to 0.2) for estimating upper bound magnitudes of seismic sources in the same area with the incremental technique.
There is an indication that such least-squares estimates are similar to or a bit greater than Kijko and Sellevol’s maximum likelihood estimates (1989). Both might be used with reasonable weights as alternatives for upper bound magnitudes in seismic hazard assessment in Slovenia.
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© 1996 Kluwer Academic Publishers
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Lapajne, J.K., Motnikar, B.Š. (1996). Estimation of Upper Bound Magnitude in Earthquake Hazard Assessment in Slovenia. In: Schenk, V. (eds) Earthquake Hazard and Risk. Advances in Natural and Technological Hazards Research, vol 6. Springer, Dordrecht. https://doi.org/10.1007/978-94-009-0243-5_4
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DOI: https://doi.org/10.1007/978-94-009-0243-5_4
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