Skip to main content

Abstract

Recent high resolution models consistently show that the global tropical cyclone (TC) frequency will decrease in the future due to global warming (Knutson et al., 2010). Sugi et al. (2002) pointed out that the reduction of global TC frequency in the future is closely related to the weakening of upward mass flux in the tropics. Recently, Sugi and Yoshimura (2012) found a clear decreasing trend of global TC frequency throughout the 228-year simulation for the period 1872-2099, which is also closely related to a decreasing trend of upward mass flux.

This is a preview of subscription content, log in via an institution to check access.

Access this chapter

Chapter
USD 29.95
Price excludes VAT (USA)
  • Available as PDF
  • Read on any device
  • Instant download
  • Own it forever
eBook
USD 129.00
Price excludes VAT (USA)
  • Available as PDF
  • Read on any device
  • Instant download
  • Own it forever
Hardcover Book
USD 169.99
Price excludes VAT (USA)
  • Durable hardcover edition
  • Dispatched in 3 to 5 business days
  • Free shipping worldwide - see info

Tax calculation will be finalised at checkout

Purchases are for personal use only

Institutional subscriptions

Preview

Unable to display preview. Download preview PDF.

Unable to display preview. Download preview PDF.

References

  • Held, I.M. and Zhao, M. (2011). The response of tropical cyclone statistics to an increase in CO2 with fixed sea surface temperature. J. Clim., 24: 5353-5364, doi:10.1175/ JCLI-D-11-00050.1.

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • Knutson, T., McBride, J., Chan, J., Emanuel, K., Holland, G., Landsea, C., Held, I., Kossin, J.P., Srivastava, A. and Sugi, M. (2010). Tropical cyclones and climate change. Nature Geoscience, doi:10.1038/ngeo0779.

    Google Scholar 

  • Mizuta, R., Yoshimura, H., Murakami, H., Matsueda, M., Endo, H., Ose, T., Kamiguchi, K., Hosaka, M., Sugi, M., Yukimoto, S., Kusunoki, S. and Kitoh, A. (2012). Climate simulations using MRI-AGCM with 20-km grid. J. Meteor. Soc. Japan, 90A: 233- 258.

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • Murakami, H., Mizuta, R. and Shindo, E. (2012a). Future changes in tropical cyclone activity projected by multi-model and multi-SST ensemble experiments using 60- km mesh MRI-AGCM. Clim. Dyn., Doi 10.1007/s00382-011-1223-x.

    Google Scholar 

  • Murakami, H., Sugi, M. and Kitoh, A. (2012b). Future changes in tropical cyclone activity in the North Indian Ocean projected by high-resolution MRI-AGCMs. Clim. Dyn., Doi 10.1007/s00382-012-1407-z.

    Google Scholar 

  • Sugi, M., Noda, A. and Sato, N. (2002). Influence of the global warming on tropical cyclone climatology: An experiment with the JMA global model. J. Meteorol. Soc. Japan., 80: 249-272, doi:10.2151/jmsj.80.249.

  • Sugi, M. and Yoshimura, J. (2004). A mechanism of tropical precipitation change due to CO2 increase. J. Climate, 17: 238-243.

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • Sugi, M., Murakami, H. and Yoshimura, J. (2009). A reduction in global tropical cyclone frequency due to global warming. SOLA, 5: 164-167.

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • Sugi, M., Murakami, H. and Yoshimura, J. (2012). On the mechanism of tropical cyclone frequency change due to global warming. J. Meteor. Soc. Japan, 90A: 399-410.

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • Sugi, M. and Yoshimura, J. (2012). Decreasing trend of tropical cyclone frequency in 228-year high-resolution AGCM simulations. Geophys. Res. Lett., 39: L19805, doi:10.1029/2012GL053360.

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • Yoshimura, J. and Sugi, M. (2005). Tropical cyclone climatology in a high resolution AGCM—Impacts of SST warming and CO2 increase. SOLA, 1: 133-136.

    Article  Google Scholar 

Download references

Author information

Authors and Affiliations

Authors

Corresponding author

Correspondence to Masato Sugi .

Editor information

Editors and Affiliations

Rights and permissions

Reprints and permissions

Copyright information

© 2014 Capital Publishing Company

About this chapter

Cite this chapter

Sugi, M., Murakami, H., Yoshimura, J. (2014). Mechanism of the Indian Ocean Tropical Cyclone Frequency Changes due to Global Warming. In: Mohanty, U.C., Mohapatra, M., Singh, O.P., Bandyopadhyay, B.K., Rathore, L.S. (eds) Monitoring and Prediction of Tropical Cyclones in the Indian Ocean and Climate Change. Springer, Dordrecht. https://doi.org/10.1007/978-94-007-7720-0_4

Download citation

Publish with us

Policies and ethics