Abstract
This analysis examines the predictability of several key forecasting parameters using the ECMWF Variable Ensemble Prediction System (VarEPS) for tropical cyclones (TCs) in the North Indian Ocean (NIO) including: tropical cyclone genesis, pre-genesis and post-genesis track and intensity projections and regional outlooks of tropical cyclone activity for the Arabian Sea and the Bay of Bengal. Based on the evaluation period from 2007 to 2010, the VarEPS TC genesis forecasts demonstrate low false alarm rates and moderate to high probabilities of detection for lead-times of one to seven days.
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© 2014 Capital Publishing Company
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Webster, P.J., Belanger, J.I., Curry, J.A. (2014). Extended Prediction of North Indian Ocean Tropical Cyclones Using the ECMWF Variable Ensemble Prediction System. In: Mohanty, U.C., Mohapatra, M., Singh, O.P., Bandyopadhyay, B.K., Rathore, L.S. (eds) Monitoring and Prediction of Tropical Cyclones in the Indian Ocean and Climate Change. Springer, Dordrecht. https://doi.org/10.1007/978-94-007-7720-0_11
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DOI: https://doi.org/10.1007/978-94-007-7720-0_11
Publisher Name: Springer, Dordrecht
Print ISBN: 978-94-007-7719-4
Online ISBN: 978-94-007-7720-0
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