Abstract
Concentrations of air pollutants can change rapidly over hours and days, sometimes reaching levels that can affect human health, particularly within the vulnerable population. Short term air quality forecasts that are reliable and sufficiently accurate can help the public protect their health on a daily basis by providing advice to help lower their health risks. This advice could include limiting short-term exposure to air pollution or reducing physical activity levels.
Short term changes in air quality are a function of both pollutant emissions and the changing state of the atmosphere. Predicting pollutant concentrations on an hourly and daily basis requires not only knowledge of the type and rate of emissions but also an understanding of how pollutants may move, change and disperse in the atmosphere over time. This chapter gives an air quality meteorologist’s perspective of the forecasting process, focussing on the atmospheric mechanisms that affect air quality. It summarizes the steps needed to produce a forecast, including the analysis of pollutant concentrations and atmospheric conditions as well as the prediction of their evolution over time.
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Notes
- 1.
Primary pollutants are emitted directly into the atmosphere where they can be converted to secondary pollutants through chemical and physical processes
- 2.
“Ambient” air is outside air to which the public is exposed. Generally it applies to air that is far from emission sources
- 3.
Synoptic meteorological data are measurements that have been made at the same time over a large area.
- 4.
Upper air meteorological data is measured directly by balloon-borne radiosonde instruments, as well as remotely by satellite
- 5.
Isobars are lines connecting points of equal atmospheric sea level pressure
- 6.
Microscopic aerosols less than 2.5 µm in diameter, often composed of multiple chemicals and usually formed through combustion or other chemical reactions.
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© 2014 Springer Science+Business Media Dordrecht
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Bukoski, B., Taylor, E. (2014). Air Quality Forecasting. In: Taylor, E., McMillan, A. (eds) Air Quality Management. Springer, Dordrecht. https://doi.org/10.1007/978-94-007-7557-2_6
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DOI: https://doi.org/10.1007/978-94-007-7557-2_6
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