Sustainable Development and Adaptation to Climate Change: A Role for Defence? The French perspectives

Abstract

Since the mid-2000s, there have been debates on the issue of whether Defence should be involved in the fight against climate change. Many reports were issued by various actors among the American defence and security community (See CNA (2007) National Security and the threat of climate change. CNA Corporation, Alexandria). The CNA Military Advisory Board has issued three other reports on the link between energy and national security), eventually leading the US and the UK to identify climate change as a security issue in their respective security doctrines (US Department of Defence (2010) Quadriennal defence review (QDR) 2010. DOD, Washington, DC); UK Cabinet Office (2008) The national security strategy of the United Kingdom: security in an interdependent world; UK Government (2010) Securing Britain in an age of uncertainty: the strategic defence and security review). There was and still remains much defiance and mistrust from traditional actors in the climate change debate towards the defence and security community. Even after the subject was discussed within the UN (UN Secretary-General’s report on “Climate change and its possible security implications” (A/64/350), prepared in response to the request of member States, in UN General Assembly (UNGA) resolution 63/281 (2009)) and the European Union (2008 Paper from the High Representative and the European Commission to the European Council on climate change and international security (S133/08)), under the broad topic of the links between climate change and international security, the path for action and the possible role of Defence is not yet agreed upon. Climate negotiations are progressing slower than ever while the negative effects of climate change are already being felt around the world.

In the meantime, the Defence community has been learning to integrate environmental constraints into its activities for some time; many initiatives are now taken at various levels (national and international) to lessen the defence-related activities’ impact on the environment, including its GHG (greenhouse gases) emissions. The Defense community should identify the risks posed by climate change to global and national security and how they impact Defence planning and missions; and ensure that Defence activities contribute as little as possible to the causes of climate change. In order to be sustainable, there needs to be an integration of mitigation and adaptation.

The goal of this chapter is to illustrate that climate change is already a fundamental determinant of our future and that, as such, it cannot be ignored by defence planners. By learning from the experience of the French Defence regarding sustainable development, we are able to better define potential adaptations to climate change.

After a brief definition of the French context regarding adaptation, we will first describe the French Defence approach regarding Sustainable Development and its current evolution. We will then discuss the need for a strategic approach to climate change adaptation for Defence and how it can build on the Sustainable Development policy. Finally, we will try to draw lessons and define next steps to tackle this complex issue.

Former Research Officer at the Directorate for Strategic Affairs, France. The views expressed by the author are her own, and do not reflect official policies of the French Ministry of Defence.

Appendices

Appendix A: Resilience of Infrastructures and Networks in a Changing Climate: French Experiences

Impact of climate change on cities, transport and energy networks is a matter of particular interest in France since the government decided to implement a global adaptation policy (national adaptation strategy) in 2006.²⁷

At the ministerial level, knowledge about impacts and adaptation to climate change is gathered by Onerc (National observatory on the impact of climate change), the French adaptation portal.²⁸ Onerc is also in charge of coordinating the implementation of the national adaptation policy. Thus Onerc published in 2009²⁹ and 2010³⁰ extensive analyses of sectoral impacts of climate change and adaptation options, in order to facilitate the design of the first national adaption action plan in 2011.³¹ The following sections highlight some findings of these works.

1.1 The Urban Issue of Climate Change Resilience: Impact Identification and Strategic Planning in Paris

Interest in climate action is growing in French cities. In the last decades, climatic extreme events raised public awareness: heat wave in 2003, recurring summer droughts since 2000, rain and coastal floods. Moreover, since the Grenelle’s laws,³² cities beyond 50,000 inhabitants are required by law to set up a local climate action plan that combines mitigation and adaptation to climate change measures, by the end of 2012. Paris, one of the front runner French cities in climate action, has already its own “Climate Plan” and has invested in knowledge improvement to enable the update of this plan by the end of this year. The following sections highlight these current issues.

1.1.1 An Urban Heat Island Issue That Influences Health Infrastructures

Towns and cities create micro-climates, due especially to the existence of urban heat islands (UHI). UHI are urban areas where higher air temperatures are detected in comparison with temperatures observed in the rural areas that surround them. According to several studies, the maximum intensity of a UHI can go from 2 °C for a town of 1,000 inhabitants up to 12°C for a city of several million inhabitants.

For example, during the heat wave in France in 2003, the temperature differences were of 8 °C between the centre of Paris and some near rural areas (Fig. 17.3). In practice, the difference in temperature between the centre of a city and rural areas depends on the architectural characteristics of the city (such as its spread, its density and the height of the buildings) and the characteristics of the rural area used as a control.

Fig. 17.3

Minimum temperature (night) in Paris and around Paris during the heat wave of 2003. We can see differences of up to 8 °C created by the urban heat island effect (Source: V. Masson, G. Pigeon, A. Lemonsu, C. Marchadier CNRM, Météo-France) (http://www.cnrm-game.fr/spip.php?rubrique134&lang=en)

A UHI has a recurrent daily variability and its intensity is generally stronger at night. It expands progressively during the night time cooling period and is a response to a rate of cooling that is slower in the denser areas than in the periphery. In the majority of cases, the maximum attained by a UHI seems to be a few hours after the sun has set, the UHI generally diminishes rapidly after sunrise.

The intensity of the UHI diminishes as the wind rises. We note that a UHI disappears when wind speeds are over 11 m/s. When there is a moderate wind (3–6 m s-1), the temperature field is shaped like a vertical flow depending on the wind direction.

The intensity of a UHI diminishes when there is an increasing cloud cover. Clouds act by modifying the night-time radiative cooling during which a UHI is formed. The influence of seasons has been detected not only on cities in temperate climates but also in other types of climates (Mexico and Cairo for example). Nevertheless, the maximum intensity of UHIs (the difference between temperatures in town and the rural areas that surround them) is the same whatever the season.

This structural phenomenom generates adverse cumulative effects during heatwaves periods: peak temperature is increased through a retarded night cooling process. UHI and heatwaves make a dangerous cocktail for urban vulnerable persons (elderly persons and children).

That’s why since 2004 an early warning system and crisis management scheme is developped in France, called “Heatwave plan”. It combines information networks and investments to reduce heat impacts on vulnerable persons (cooling devices, drinking water distribution, health infrastructure improvement, hospitals networking). The plan is coordinated at the national and local level.

1.1.2 Heatwave and Transport Network Failures

In August 2003, the high temperatures created very high constraints on railway tracks (buckling) and their basement (through drying). Thus, a section of the suburban rail network has been closed during 3 week in Paris. This failure generated many direct and indirect costs at the city level and the national railway company is today investing money and time in upgrading tracks and distension seams.

High air temperature has also generated a global discomfort for travellers in Paris public transports. Today, shaded areas have been built in the parking zones.

1.1.3 Floods and Low Water Issues: Impacts on Transportation and Sewage Infrastructure

The Seine river crossing Paris played a very bad trick to Parisians in 1910, with the highest flood ever seen in Paris. Today, despite the development of many anti-flooding devices upstream and downstream, the City is very cautious with this topic because a vast part of Paris is a low lying area and if the same flood comes again, it will probably cause many infrastructure disruptions as illustrated below with the electric and subway networks (Figs. 17.4 and 17.5).

Fig. 17.4

Area of fragile electric power supply if the present protection fails to meet the threat of a flood of the height of that in 1910, or if the floods are higher (Source: Police headquarter of Paris)

Fig. 17.5

Vulnerability of the Paris metro network if there was a repeat of the 1910 flood. The red lines represent the Paris Metro section affected (unaffected sections are in grey) (Source: Police headquarter of Paris)

In the future climate, latest research suggests that the annual run-off of the Seine will decrease by 15 % and mainly during summer (−25 %). Nevertheless, modelling doesn’t anticipate any significant change in flooding patterns. The decrease in summer flow will challenge sewage water treatment capacities.

Appendix B: Coastal Flooding of Infrastructures and Cities

Rising sea levels, on one hand, will have consequences in terms of material losses due to the slow submerging of the coast and on the other, potential consequences in terms of a threat to human lives from the increased risk of coastal flooding following storms.

The permanent rising of sea levels caused by climate change will lead to an increase in the geographic spread of areas submerged by storm tides and an increase in their intensity and in their frequency in areas already at risk. This effect will be at least stronger in the future since climate change could lead to acceleration in coastal erosion and will probably alter the existing natural barriers to coastal flooding.

In France, low lying areas such as the Mediterranean regions or the Vendée, Charente-Maritime, Nord-Pas-de-Calais and the Aquitaine region are the most seriously threatened.

As an illustration the following map shows the level of risk for part of the Languedoc-Roussillon region. With one meter rise in sea level (a very pessimistic scenario) the areas in red are the ones that would be directly threatened by permanent flooding; the areas in orange areas are already threatened by high tides and storms and they will see their risk increased; the areas in yellow are considered as safe today but would be at risk with an average higher sea level of over one meter. In blue are the areas that are at present urbanised and which have grown strongly in the last decades (Fig. 17.6).

Fig. 17.6

Map of the Languedoc-Roussillon region, with urbanisation in blue and altitude in relation to sea level in yellow/orange/red. (Source: [2] (http://www.developpement-durable.gouv.fr/IMG/pdf/001-3.pdf)

In that scenario, around 100, 000 households and business will be lost at the end of the century only in that region.

We need to make clear the fact that sea defences are not generally considered to be the only adaptive solution when faced with the risk of submerged coastlines. Although they may carry out their defensive role well, they may aggravate or create problems elsewhere; the solution to the certain problems creates problems for others. In addition in some cases, the construction of defences may lead to an increase in vulnerability. This occurs when, from a false sense of security brought on by the defences, new facilities are developed in the protected areas; the risk in these areas being never zero, this can lead to even higher losses if there is a serious climate event and so, in the final analysis, increased vulnerability. It would seem more sensible to consider a policy of prevention which limits the installation of facilities and people in areas that are at risk and protect what is already there rather than consider new defences. We need to note, therefore, that physical defences (for example sea walls) will never be sufficient unless they are linked to a land use policy. In particular it is vital to avoid urbanisation and development of areas liable to flooding situated outside the defended area. From a technical point of view, if sea level rise by one meter, latest research suggests that sea wall need to be elevated by at least 1.8 m just to keep their current defence ability.

Beyond the city focus, it has been estimated that nearly 20,000 km of roads and 2,000 km of railways will be affected by a one meter rise of sea level in France. The cost associated to the damage would range up two Billion Euro only for the road infrastructure.

2.1 Energy Infrastructure and Climate Change

2.1.1 Heatwave and Transport Network Failures

Nuclear power plants were seriously challenged during the 2003 heat wave. Technically speaking, cooling the plants was not a problem; the constraint was that suppliers had to abide by the regulation on thermal discharge (i.e. the maximum temperature authorized for water discharges in the rivers). These constraints have generated a costly burden: 5.3 TWh were lost in 2003 during the heat wave and were purchased abroad on the spot market.

Since 2004 the national electric company has invested in the adaptation of the powerplant to high temperature spells. 350 million Euro will be spent on the 2004–2019 period. At the end of 2011, around 180 million Euro have already been spent to improve cooling devices,

2.1.2 Drought, Forest Fires and Transport Network Failures

Climate modelling projects an increase of forest fire prone areas in France: in the north of the country and in altitude regions. This is an issue of major concern because forest fire disrupt directly or indirectly infrastructure and networks. For example, high voltage lines must be switched off in case of forest fire, generating blackouts downstream. Forest fires also disrupt transport networks and challenge emergency and health assistance. In France, current sensitive areas in the South of the country will become even more sensitive in a near future. And areas that are not sensitive today will become newly sensitive. To respond to these challenges, the fire management scheme is currently reviewed to gradually upgrade its efficiency (Fig. 17.7).

Fig. 17.7

Forest fire prone areas extension between today (left) and around 2040 (right). Red = highly sensitive; orange = sensitive (Source: Inter ministerial mission 2010) (http://portail.documentation.developpement-durable.gouv.fr/documents/cgedd/005957-01_rapport.pdf)

2.2 Next Steps

The vulnerability assessments illustrated above have been used to design the first national action plan to adapt to climate change³³ in 2011. This action plan will be implemented starting now until 2015 through several concrete actions to reduce the vulnerability of the main socio-economic sectors and to further improve knowledge of climate change impacts in France.

The UHI issue is currently studied using more detailed assumptions and approaches. Adaptation options to reduce the problems during heat waves have been recently modelled in Paris.³⁴ Through local adaptation planning at the regional and city levels (encouraged by Grenelle’s laws), several cities are implementing actions to reduce the UHI impact (for example, Paris and Lyon through accelerated vegetization).

The Ministry in charge of transports and the national railway company are currently reviewing their construction norms to check if they need an upgrade to remain valid under a warmer climate.

Coastal vulnerability can be better assessed today since national laser cartography (LIDAR) has been performed on French coasts in the last 2 years.

The national electricity company is improving the cooling devices of their power plants and has shifted its annual upgrade programme to be better prepared in case of a summer heat wave.

More than half of the French regions have today adopted their own climate action planning policy document to be more resilient to climate change in the future.