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Swarm Planning pp 197-219 | Cite as

Beyond the Ordinary: Innovative Spatial Energy Framework Offers Perspectives on Increased Energy and Carbon Objectives

  • Rob RoggemaEmail author
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Part of the Springer Theses book series (Springer Theses)

Abstract

The way energy is supplied, converted and used is very inefficient (Stremke et al. 2010). The Sankey diagram illustrates that, on a global level, only 11.6 % of the energy sources is turned into useful energy (Cullen and Allwood 2010; Van den Dobbelsteen 2010) not only high prices of energy or the fact that burning fossil resources contributes to climate change motivate a transition towards sustainable energy supply. A structural change is also required because fossil resources (Including finite yet non-fossil nuclear energy) will be depleted in a period of less than 100 years (Hoogakker 2006). This is caused by the fact that running out of the first fossil resource subsequently leads to an accelerated depletion of the next. In the BP statistical review the R/P (Reserve to Production) ratio for coal, oil and natural gas is estimated 120, 45 and 60 years respectively (BP 2009), however, this does not take into account that when oil is finished, the depletion of gas and coal will be accelerated. Therefore, the longer term aim is to develop a society that functions without the use of fossil resources. Dril (2010) demonstrates that current policy will not enable to achieve this goal, because existing market powers object transition, implementation of change is too slow and policy cannot enforce a fundamental shift in energy supply. In addition, people seem not to be willing to pay for energy-efficient houses (Van Estrik 2009). The question that can be raised is if a transition towards non-fossil will occur through incremental steps or through discontinuous processes of subsequent breakthroughs. The incremental approach mainly focuses on achieving what is already possible. A certain agreed target, such as to reduce CO2 emissions by 20 % by the year 2020 (European Parliament Council 2009) or the energy agreement for the Northern Netherlands (Samenwerkingsverband Noord-Nederland et al. 2007), determines the maximum achievable level. The transition model as described by De Roo illustrates this continuous process (De Roo 2008). There is no incentive to realise higher targets than the maximum aim; the aim even limits the realisation of a fundamental change towards a complete sustainable energy supply. Several studies (Van den Dobbelsteen et al. 2007a, b; Broersma et al. 2009) illustrate that an approach based on the available potentials of a certain area, enables realising much higher targets. However, these high ambitions are only attainable through the enforcement of breakthroughs, as illustrated by Perez (Perez 2002) or, as complexity theory explores, enforcing a jump to a higher level of complexity (Geldof 2001; Zuijderhoudt 2007; Peeters and Wetzels 1997). This process of subsequent and discontinuous phases and shifts, as described elsewhere (Roggema et al. 2010), places the local energy potentials in a central position.

Keywords

Energy supply Energy potential mapping Transformation Complexity Non-fossil energy 

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Authors and Affiliations

  1. 1.Faculty of ArchitectureDelft University of TechnologyDelftThe Netherlands

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