Abstract
Spatial planning and climate change science are part of a complex and uncertain context. The general response to this, and this can be seen throughout both the spatial planning and the climate change community, is to try to reduce uncertainty by introducing more procedures, developing more detailed models and increasing control of processes. However, gaining more detailed knowledge does not always increase certainty, or as Kevin Trenberth (2010) puts it: ‘More knowledge less certainty’. Both spatial planning and climate change, even more so if the two are linked, could gain from introducing self-organising principles. In order to be able to do so, the spatial system needs to be understood as a complex adaptive system, in which processes of self-organisation and emergence create ever changing spatial patterns, which, when used purposefully, will increase the system’s capability to respond effectively to unexpected change and uncertainty, for instance as a result of climate change. Providing the individual spatial elements in the landscape with a surplus of ‘technical skills’ will enable these spatial entities to self-organise and adapt more easily, thereby collaboratively increasing the adaptive capacity of the system. In order to create the conditions, which allow these self-organising processes to take place, current spatial planning practice needs to let go of its preference to regard spatial systems as being simple and problems as being tame. Complex Adaptive problems, such as climate change, cannot be dealt with within the current spatial planning framework. They require fundamental rethinking of the models underpinning spatial planning and introducing a new planning methodology. Swarm Planning claims to offer this methodology, using the dynamics of swarms as a metaphor. The behavioural patterns of swarms in nature are governed by the principles of self-organisation and emergence, rather than being planned and controlled by an outside authority. When these principles are built into a complex spatial system, the system can start displaying the properties of a swarm: responding to interventions and impulses it will change its shape, but not its content. The elements that make up the system will still be the same, yet they will interact in way that is more responsive to changing and uncertain circumstances, thereby increasing its adaptive capacity. The purpose of this chapter is to develop Swarm Planning as a planning methodology, which is better equipped to deal with uncertainties and to effectively plan for the complex problem of climate change. This new methodology looks at spatial systems as complex adaptive systems and uses the properties of these systems spatially to increase the resilience and adaptive capacity of the system. The chapter will first examine different views on dealing with uncertainty, it will then describe the properties of swarms and complex adaptive systems and their applicability to a Swarm Planning method and the chapter will conclude with describing a Swarm Planning design, illuminating the potential benefits.
This chapter has been published previously in the double blind peer reviewed conference proceedings of the 4th International Urban Design Conference ‘Resilience in Urban Design’, Surfers Paradise, 21–23 September 2011: ‘Roggema et al. (2011) Swarming landscapes, new pathways for resilient cities’.
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Notes
- 1.
Deep uncertainty is defined as the condition where analysts do not know or the parties to a decision cannot agree upon (1) the appropriate models to describe interactions among a system’s variables, (2) the probability distributions to represent uncertainty about key parameters in the models, or (3) how to value the desirability of alternative outcomes (Lempert et al. 2003, 2006).
- 2.
As an example, the very simple rules in nature (for birds and fish) are (1) Stay as close as possible to the middle, (2) Move in same direction and with same speed as the others and (3) Stay 2-3 body-lengths away from neighbours.
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The Bridge: Six–Seven
The Bridge: Six–Seven
Chapters 5 and 6 mainly focused on the application of the Swarm Planning Framework for climate adaptation. Chapters 7 and 8 applied the framework to design landscapes for climate mitigation or, the arrangement of landscapes that harvest enough sustainable energy. Chapter 7 is elaborating the availability and local potentials of possible renewable energy resources as the basic informant of spatial design. Four separated spatial scales are distinguished, each with their own characteristics. For each scale renewable energy potentials need to be discovered, mapped, used in the design and calculated. This methodology, Energy Potential Mapping (and Design) emphasises that current policy aims are, compared with local and regional potentials, not extremely ambitious. For nearly every spatial scale a surplus of energy can be harvested using renewable resources. This article/chapter is published in the proceedings of the Passive Low-Energy Architecture (PLEA) conference, 2009.
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Roggema, R. (2014). Swarming Landscapes, New Pathways for Resilient Cities. In: Swarm Planning. Springer Theses. Springer, Dordrecht. https://doi.org/10.1007/978-94-007-7152-9_6
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