Incremental Change, Transition or Transformation? Optimising Change Pathways for Climate Adaptation in Spatial Planning

Abstract

In recent works different scholars characterise the current timeframe as turbulent and instable. The Earth system is being pushed outside its ‘Holocene range’ into the ‘Antropocene’ (Steffen et al. in Global Change and the Earth System: A Planet Under Pressure. Springer, Heidelberg, 2004), there is a looming crisis, which both causes and decreases the solvability of increasing instability (Walker et al. in Science 325:1345–1346, 2009). We live in a timeframe of a rapid change, uncertainty (Chapin et al. in Trends Ecol Evol 25:241–249, 2009) and turbulence (Ramirez et al. in Business Planning for Turbulent Times: New Methods for Applying Scenarios. Earthscan Publications Ltd, London, 2008), defined as: ‘the dynamic properties arise not simply from the interaction of the component organisations, but also from the ground itself. The ‘ground’ is in motion’ (Emery and Trist in Hum Relat 18:21–32, 1965). These kinds of typecasts pose ‘the greatest challenge for research and policy ever to confront humanity’ (Steffen et al. in Ambio 36:614–621, 2007), major changes of current systems are necessary (Olsson, Presented at the NCCARF-Seminar, Melbourne, Australia, Feb 10, 2011) and as a consequence, there is a need for novel and adaptive governance approaches at the global, regional and local scale (Dietz et al. in Science 302:1907–1912, 2003; Folke et al. in Ann Rev Env Resour 30:441–473, 2005; Berkman and Young in Science 324:339–340, 2009). Regarding climate change, and beyond ‘solving’ the climate crisis, adaptation of our societies is necessary and a broad spectrum of adaptation types, such as regulations, financing, adjusted procedures, as well as in spatial planning is required. Adaptation to climate change implies change from the current to an adapted situation. This change can occur in different ways: gradual and incremental, through a transition or in the form of a transformation. This chapter will examine the different possibilities to enhance the required change, develops a preferred pathway and applies this pathway in a case study.

This chapter is published in Sustainability: Roggema et al. (2012).

The Bridge: Four–Five

In Chaps. 2, 3 and 4 the theoretical basis is found for a spatial planning framework that is capable of dealing with complex issues, such as climate change. In Chaps. 5–9 this framework is applied to (practical) case studies. Chapters 5 and 6 focus on climate adaptation and the increase of resilience. In Chap. 5 the way a strategic intervention can be best placed in conjunction with creation of free space for spatial evolution is further elaborated for the case study of the Regional Plan for Groningen Province. The first statement in this chapter is that a spatial system functions as a complex adaptive system (CAS) and the chosen planning process to develop the regional plan does not acknowledge this. The planning process needs to be adjusted in order to give space to the wicked character of climate change: a ‘wicked bypass’ is introduced. Secondly, the complex spatial system can become more resilient when it reaches a higher level of complexity. A strategic intervention, or tipping point, might enforce the system to reach this new level. In a spatial sense a specific location needs to be identified where this strategic intervention can be placed. Extensive knowledge and understanding of the spatial system is necessary to confidently locate these places. Therefore, the climate and energy data are spatially mapped and the most suitable interventions are located in the spatial system. The care for a sustainable energy supply at the regional scale implies modifications in the landscape and in this sense energy supply is an adaptation measure. The resilience of the area is increased through implementing the strategic interventions and to create space around them. This chapter is published in the conference porceedings of UKSS 2008 and SB08.