Abstract
For most cities sustainable travel is an important transport policy aspiration, implying amongst other objectives much less dependence on oil and much reduced carbon dioxide (CO2) emissions. Some jurisdictions have adopted stringent CO2 reduction targets. But all, including the more progressive cities, are experiencing major difficulties in moving towards greater sustainability in travel behaviour. The private car (fuelled by petrol and diesel) remains the mainstream mode of travel under current trends and prospective trajectories. The different baselines, projections, and opportunities are considered for two very different contexts, London and Jinan (China), drawing on two previous modelling studies carried out by us. The likely possibilities for reducing transport CO2 emissions are examined, developing normative and qualitative scenarios, combined with a more quantitative understanding of the likely make up of the future images. Each scenario is compared relative to the current business as usual projections for transport CO2 emissions. The conclusion comments on the potential for achieving change, on the need for the more radical “discontinuity” measures which may move towards sustainable mobility, and also on the continuing difficulties in implementation.
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Notes
- 1.
Much of the analysis reported in this chapter draws on work carried out by the authors and wider team members in the Visioning and Backcasting for Transport in London study (VIBAT-London), UCL UrbanBuzz Programme, 2007–2009, and VIBAT-Jinan study, University of Oxford Future of Cities Programme, 2010–2011. See Hickman, Ashiru, and Banister (2009) and Zhao, Liu, Hickman, and Banister (2012).
- 2.
More commentary can be found in the original VIBAT-London and VIBAT-Jinan studies (see footnote 1).
- 3.
The modelling approach is very different by city – with a much more detailed dataset and modelling capability available to use in London; Jinan utilised the transportation data available locally such as motorisation rates. More details can again be found in the VIBAT-London and VIBAT-Jinan studies (see footnote 1).
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Hickman, R., Banister, D., Liu, J., Zhao, J. (2014). Integrated Transportation Solutions: Images of the Future. In: Gärling, T., Ettema, D., Friman, M. (eds) Handbook of Sustainable Travel. Springer, Dordrecht. https://doi.org/10.1007/978-94-007-7034-8_16
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