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Cross-National Morbidity Patterns

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Abstract

One piece of evidence for the merit of the conjecture regarding the unique cohorts of the 1930s–1960s is the comparison of morbidity patterns across countries and mortality regimes. There are two immediate questions based on the hypotheses: (1) Is the profile of older adults in low- and middle-income countries (and in particular the tip of the iceberg countries) worse than what is observed in developed countries, even after removing the potential effects of current disparities in standards of living?; and (2) Are current chronic health conditions closely associated with past individual history, including nutritional status, early experiences, illnesses, and deprivations experienced during early childhood? In answering these two questions another question arises: (3) What is the appropriate time period to make comparisons across countries which may be at very different points in their health transition?

The profile of older adult health in the tip of the iceberg countries will be found to be worse than what is observed in developed countries, even after removing the potential effects of current disparities in standards of living.

(Hypothesis #1)

Current health conditions, but particularly the prevalence of certain chronic conditions such as heart disease and diabetes in the tip of the iceberg countries, will be closely associated with individual history, including nutritional status, early experience with illnesses, and deprivations experienced during early childhood.

(Hypothesis #2)

Adapted from Palloni, McEniry, Wong, and Peláez (2006)

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Notes

  1. 1.

    Lannoy (1963).

  2. 2.

    Elo and Preston (1992).

  3. 3.

    McEniry et al. (2008), McEniry and Palloni (2010), and McEniry (2011b).

  4. 4.

    For example, in the US see Gordon (1964), Wilkerson and Krall (1947), and for England and Wales see Allender, Scarborough, O’Flaherty, and Capewell (2008), García-Palmieri et al. (1970), and Walker and Kerridge (1961). For later periods, in the US see Alexander, Landsman, Teutsch, and Haffner (2003), Cowie et al. (2006), Gregg et al. (2004), Hadden and Harris (1987), Harris et al. (1998), and for the Netherlands see Ubink-Veltmaat et al. (2003. Wilkerson and Krall (1947) estimated the prevalence of diabetes for 55–64 years old in the US was about 4 % overall and higher for females (7 %) compared with men (2 %). The prevalence of diabetes for US men aged 55–64 during the 1960s was 3.3 % (Gordon, 1964). In the 1970s, the prevalence of diabetes in the US among older adults began to increase. Hadden and Harris (1987) reported a prevalence rate of 12.8 % for adults aged 55–64 and 17.7 % for adults aged 65–74 from 1976–1980 data. Harris et al. (1998) described the prevalence of diabetes in the US for adults aged 60–74 to be about 13 % overall and about 24 % for Mexican-Americans in the year 1988–1994. In another study (Flegal et al., 1991), the prevalence of diabetes in Mexican-Americans and Puerto Ricans aged 45–74 years old in the early 1980s was about 14.3 % for both groups. The prevalence of diabetes was higher for women and higher than that of non-Hispanic whites.

  5. 5.

    Day (2001).

  6. 6.

    For example, in the case of Puerto Rico, mortality decline due to heart disease declined beginning in the 1980s (Palloni, McEniry, Dávila, & García Gurucharri, 2005).

  7. 7.

    For the US see Dawber, Moore, and Mann (1957), Ford and Giles (2003), Gordon and Garst (1965), Harper, Lynch, and Davey Smith (2011); and for England and Wales see Allender et al. (2008) and García-Palmieri et al. (1970). Even into the 1980s and 1990s, the prevalence of heart disease among adults 50 years and older was lower than what some developing countries are currently experiencing (for example, in the US see Ford & Giles, 2003).

  8. 8.

    The prevalence of all coronary heart disease (myocardial infarction, angina pectoris, coronary insufficiency) among 55–64-year-old men in the US National Health Survey (NHS) in 1960–1962 was 14 %.

  9. 9.

    Prevalence based on the Rose questionnaire (Ford & Giles, 2003; Rose, 1962).

  10. 10.

    The prevalence of coronary heart disease in Puerto Rico from the Puerto Rico Heart Health Program (PRHHP) for males aged 55–64 in 1965–1968 was 8 % (García-Palmieri et al., 1970, Table 10; National Heart, Lung, and Blood Institute, 2008).

  11. 11.

    Popkin, Horton, and Kim (2001).

  12. 12.

    Greenland and Robins (1994).

  13. 13.

    Marmot and Elliott (2005).

  14. 14.

    Trowell and Burkitt (1985).

  15. 15.

    Eriksson, Kajantie, Osmond, Thornburg, and Barker (2010) and Ravelli et al. (1998).

  16. 16.

    Kuh and Ben-Shlomo (2004).

  17. 17.

    Clark (1930).

  18. 18.

    Vázquez Calzada and Rivera Acevedo (1982).

  19. 19.

    McEniry et al. (2008).

  20. 20.

    McEniry et al. (2008) and Palloni et al. (2005).

  21. 21.

    McEniry (2011b).

  22. 22.

    Some of the text in the following discussion is taken directly from the author’s previous publications, including McEniry et al. (2008), McEniry and Palloni (2010), and McEniry (2011b).

  23. 23.

    Barker (2005).

  24. 24.

    Costa (2005), Doblhammer (2004), Gavrilov and Gavrilova (2005), Moore et al. (1999), Prentice and Cole (1994).

  25. 25.

    Finch and Crimmins (2004).

  26. 26.

    Scrimshaw (1968, 1997).

  27. 27.

    Palloni et al. (2005).

  28. 28.

    McEniry et al. (2008), McEniry and Palloni (2010), and McEniry (2009b, 2011b, c).

  29. 29.

    Godfrey and Barker (2000).

  30. 30.

    Barker, Eriksson, Forsen, and Osmond (2002), Eriksson, Forsen, Tuomilehto, Osmond, and Barker (2001), and Osmond, Barker, Winter, Fall, and Simmonds (1993).

  31. 31.

    Moore et al. (1999) and Simondon et al. (2004).

  32. 32.

    Becerra and Smith (1990).

  33. 33.

    John, Menken, and Chowdhury (1987).

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  1. Inter-university Consortium for Political and Social Research Institute for Social Research, University of Michigan, Ann Arbor, MI, USA

    Mary McEniry

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McEniry, M. (2014). Cross-National Morbidity Patterns. In: Early Life Conditions and Rapid Demographic Changes in the Developing World. Springer, Dordrecht. https://doi.org/10.1007/978-94-007-6979-3_4

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