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A Contrarian Conjecture, Road Map, Ideal Data, Approach

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Early Life Conditions and Rapid Demographic Changes in the Developing World

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Abstract

The previous chapter laid out the ground work for a conjecture regarding life expectancy and older adult health for the unique cohorts of the 1930s–1960s in some low- and middle-income countries. In the next section, more detail is provided for a contrarian conjecture and related hypotheses, a roadmap and the “ideal” data along with an introduction to the overall approach used to examine the hypotheses.

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Notes

  1. 1.

    Oeppen and Vaupel (2002) and Floud, Fogel, Harris, and Chul Hong (2011).

  2. 2.

    Gwatkin (1980) and Manton and Singer (1994).

  3. 3.

    Crimmins, Preston, and Cohen (2010) and Woolf and Aron (2013).

  4. 4.

    World Health Organization (2011b) definition of Healthy Life Expectancy (HALE): “Average number of years that a person can expect to live in ‘full health’ by taking into account years lived in less than full health due to disease and/or injury.”

  5. 5.

    Murray et al. (2012) and Lim et al. (2012).

  6. 6.

    See for example, Barreto et al. (2012).

  7. 7.

    Mehrotra and Jolly (1997).

  8. 8.

    Palloni (2011), Palloni, Noronha, and McEniry (2009), Palloni, Pinto-Aguirre, and Peláez (2002), and Palloni and Pinto-Aguirre (2004).

  9. 9.

    Palloni, McEniry, Wong, and Peláez (2006), Alter and Riley (1989), and Vaupel, Manton, and Stallard (1979).

  10. 10.

    For example, see López-Alonso (2007), Godoy, Goodman, Levins, Caram, and Seyfried (2007), and Harris (2000).

  11. 11.

    Barker, Forsén, Uutela, Osmond, and Eriksson (2001) and Barker (1995).

  12. 12.

    Popkin, Horton, and Kim (2001) and Basu, Yoffe, Hills, Lustig, and Wagner (2013).

  13. 13.

    Murray et al. (2012) and Lim et al. (2012).

  14. 14.

    Marmot and Elliott (2005).

  15. 15.

    De Schutter (2012).

  16. 16.

    Wilkinson (1996).

  17. 17.

    López-Alonso (2007).

  18. 18.

    For a longer discussion about health selection—see for example, Lundberg (1991) and Palloni et al. (2009).

  19. 19.

    Preston (1976).

  20. 20.

    Scrimshaw (1968) and Scrimshaw (1997).

  21. 21.

    Preston (1976).

  22. 22.

    Palloni et al. (2006).

  23. 23.

    See for example Harper, Lynch, and Davey Smith (2011). Palloni, McEniry, Dávila, and García Gurucharri (2005) graphically show crude mortality rate over time for Puerto Rico. It appears that consistent mortality decline occurred after 1980 about 20 years later than in the US.

  24. 24.

    Lin, Schaeffer, Seltzer, and Tuschen (2004) and Almond and Currie (2010).

  25. 25.

    Bengtsson and Lindstrom (2000) and Gagnon and Mazan (2006).

  26. 26.

    Campbell and Lee (2009).

  27. 27.

    There are five well-known birth cohorts from studies in low- and middle-income countries that have not yet reached the age of 60: (1) the Institute of Nutrition of Central America and Panama Nutrition Trial Cohort (INTC-Guatemala), (2) the Cebu Longitudinal Health and Nutrition Survey cohort (CLHNS-Philippines), (3) the 1982 Pelotas (Brazil) Birth Cohort Study, (4) the Birth-to-Twenty (Bt20; Soweto-Johannesburg, South Africa), and (5) the New Delhi Birth Cohort (India). See for example Stein et al. (2010) or MRC Lifecourse Epidemiology Unit (2011). See Adair et al., (2013) and Batty, Horta, Davey Smith, Barros, & Victory (2009) for an example of research with these cohorts.

  28. 28.

    National Research Council (2001).

  29. 29.

    See for example Crimmins, Kim, and Vasunilashorn (2010).

  30. 30.

    See Case and Paxson (2010).

  31. 31.

    Eveleth and Tanner (1990).

  32. 32.

    American Diabetes Association (n.d.) There is a genetic component to diabetes but there is the possibility that shared lifestyles also contribute to diabetes.

  33. 33.

    Beltrán-Sánchez, Crimmins, Teruel, and Thomas (2011), Brenes (2008), Brenes-Camacho and Palloni (2011), Campbell and Lee (2009); Crimmins et al. (2005), Huang and Elo (2009), Huang, Soldo, and Elo (2011), Kohler and Soldo (2005), McEniry, Palloni, Dávila, and García (2008), McEniry and Palloni (2010), McEniry (2011b), Monteverde, Norhonha, and Palloni (2009), Moore et al. (1999), Palloni et al. (2005, 2006), Schooling et al. (2011), Zeng, Gu, and Land (2007), Zhang, Gu, and Hayward (2010); Victora et al. (2008); see review article McEniry (2012).

  34. 34.

    Hauser, Tsai, and Sewell (1983).

  35. 35.

    See for example PREHCO (2007).

  36. 36.

    Most historical accounts of countries such as China (Banister, 1987; Campbell, 1997; MacPherson, 2008; Zeng, Gu, & Land, 2007); India (Dyson, 1997; Guha, 2001; Ramasubban, 2008), Ghana (Patterson, 1979, 1981), Puerto Rico (Fernós Isern & Rodríguez Pastor, 1930), Chile (Garnier, Grynspan, Hidalgo, Monge, & Trejos, 1997; WHO, 2000b), Indonesia (Hull, 2008; Nitisastro, 1970), Taiwan (Barclay, 1954), South Africa (Beinart & Dubow, 1995), Barbados (Bishop, Corbin, & Duncan, 1997; West India Royal Commission, 1945), Brazil, Mexico, and Puerto Rico (Clark, 1930; Huang, Soldo, & Elo, 2011; Rodríguez de Romo & Rodríguez de Pérez, 1998; Scazufca et al., 2008) bear out the idea that in most of the selected countries, conditions during the early twentieth century in rural areas were worse in terms of nutrition, educational attainment and economic opportunities. Exceptions are Argentina and Uruguay. There were undoubtedly problems in urban areas in terms of crowding which produced disease but access to better nutrition was probably better in urban areas during the twentieth century in these settings. In terms of the demographic transition it is assumed to occur first in more urban areas and then spread to the rural areas as efforts to improve conditions in rural areas increased.

  37. 37.

    Haas (2007).

  38. 38.

    McEniry et al. (2008).

  39. 39.

    Wilkinson and Marmot (2003) and Campbell and Lee (2009).

  40. 40.

    Huxley, Neil, and Collins (2002), Joseph and Kramer (1996), and Rasmussen (2001).

  41. 41.

    Barker (1998).

  42. 42.

    Schmidt, Jorgensen, and Michaelsen (1995) and Stein et al. (2010).

  43. 43.

    See for example Palloni et al. (2005) or Brenes (2008).

  44. 44.

    Maurer (2010).

  45. 45.

    Davey Smith et al. (2001), Gunnell, Davey Smith, Holly, and Frankel (1998), Leitch (1951), and Wadsworth, Hardy, Paul, Marshall, and Cole (2002).

  46. 46.

    Bengtsson and Lindstrom (2000), Doblhammer (2004), Svensson, Broström, and Oris (2004), and van den Berg, Lindeboom, and Portrait (2006).

  47. 47.

    Doblhammer (2004), Costa (2005), Gavrilov and Gavrilova (2005), Moore et al. (1999), Muñoz-Tuduri and García-Moro (2008), McEniry et al. (2008), Mazumder, Almond, Park, Crimmins, and Finch (2009), and Prentice and Cole (1994).

  48. 48.

    Doblhammer (2004).

  49. 49.

    For historical patterns of rainfall throughout the world see Food and Agriculture Organization of the United Nations (1984, 1985, 1987).

  50. 50.

    Bengtsson and Lindstrom (2003), Costa (2005), Doblhammer (2004), Gavrilov and Gavrilova (2005), Prentice and Cole (1994), Gavrilov and Gavrilova (2011), and Gavrilov and Gavrilova (2012).

  51. 51.

    Barker (1998) and Gardiner (2007).

  52. 52.

    Ravelli et al. (1998).

  53. 53.

    John, Menken, and Chowdhury (1987).

  54. 54.

    Doblhammer (2004) and Kevan (1979).

  55. 55.

    Costa (2005), Gavrilov and Gavrilova (2005), and Kevan (1979).

  56. 56.

    Cole (1993), Hauspie and Pagezy (1989), Marin et al. (1996), Moore et al. (1999), Tomkins (1993), Trowbridge and Newton (1979).

  57. 57.

    Moore et al. (1999).

  58. 58.

    Studies done in Brazil, Gambia, India, and Bangladesh have focused either on children or younger adults (González, Goncalves, & Victora, 2009; Hawkesworth et al., 2009; Richards, Fulford, & Prentice, 2009; Veena et al., 2009). For older adults, see McEniry et al. (2008).

  59. 59.

    Doblhammer (2004).

  60. 60.

    Ceesay et al. (1997).

  61. 61.

    See for example Gamble (1980), Guerrant, Lima, and Davidson (2000), Moore et al. (1999), Moore et al. (2004), Richards et al. (2009), and Simondon et al. (2004).

  62. 62.

    Buckles and Hungerman (2008).

  63. 63.

    Huxley, Neil, and Collins (2002) and Joseph and Kramer (1996).

  64. 64.

    van den Berg, Doblhammer, and Christensen (2009).

  65. 65.

    See for example Doblhammer (2003).

  66. 66.

    See for example FAO (2004).

  67. 67.

    Almond and Mazumder (2011).

  68. 68.

    Jensen and Miller (2011) and Hunger Notes (2011).

  69. 69.

    Lannoy (1963).

  70. 70.

    Elo and Preston (1992).

  71. 71.

    See for example Baker, Stabile and Deri (2004), Banks, Marmot, Oldfield, and Smith (2006a, 2006b), Beckett, Weinstein, Goldman, and Yu-Hsuan (2000), Brenes (2008), Goldman, Lin, Weinstein, and Lin (2003), and Riosmena and Wong (2008). However, other studies suggest that in the case of Latin America and the Caribbean self-reports may grossly underestimate the true prevalence of chronic conditions (Andrade, 2008).

  72. 72.

    Gruber and Wise (1998).

  73. 73.

    Greenland and Robins (1994).

  74. 74.

    He, Muenchrath, and Kowal (2012).

  75. 75.

    Differences in response scales and wording may affect how respondents answer questions in surveys. Harmonization uses methods to attempt to correct for these differences and to develop questions that are more directly comparable across survey instruments.

  76. 76.

    See McEniry working papers (2009–2010).

  77. 77.

    Rubin (1987).

  78. 78.

    Raghunathan, Reiter, and Rubin (2003), Rubin (1987), and Van Buren, Boshuizen, and Knook (1999).

  79. 79.

    Omran (1971), Palloni (1981), and Palloni, McEniry, Wong, and Peláez (2007) proposed general classification schemes for mortality regimes.

  80. 80.

    Palloni et al. (2007).

  81. 81.

    Preston (1976), pages 72–73.

  82. 82.

    UNESCO (1953, 1965, 1977), Preston (1976, 1980), and Maddison (2006); Appendix A.

  83. 83.

    Palloni et al. (2005).

  84. 84.

    Preston (1976).

  85. 85.

    McEniry, Moen, and McDermott (2013).

  86. 86.

    McEniry et al. (2013).

  87. 87.

    Rose (1962) and Rose et al. (1977).

  88. 88.

    Ahmad et al. (2001).

  89. 89.

    See for example Ford and Giles (2003), Gordon (1964), GarcíaPalmieri et al. (1970), Wilkerson and Krall (1947), Hadden and Harris (1987), and Haris et al. (1998).

  90. 90.

    Greenland and Robins (1994).

  91. 91.

    McEniry et al. (2008).

  92. 92.

    McEniry and Palloni (2010).

  93. 93.

    McEniry (2012).

  94. 94.

    McEniry (2009b, 2011c).

  95. 95.

    McEniry (2012).

  96. 96.

    WHO (2002).

  97. 97.

    Zimmer, Kaneda, and Spess (2007) and Dow (2011).

  98. 98.

    Fogel (2004), Palloni et al. (2007), Waaler (1984), and Floud et al. (2011).

  99. 99.

    Waaler (1984).

  100. 100.

    Palloni and McEniry analyses carried out during 2007.

  101. 101.

    McEniry (2010a).

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McEniry, M. (2014). A Contrarian Conjecture, Road Map, Ideal Data, Approach. In: Early Life Conditions and Rapid Demographic Changes in the Developing World. Springer, Dordrecht. https://doi.org/10.1007/978-94-007-6979-3_2

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