Population Projections

  • Farhat Yusuf
  • Jo. M. Martins
  • David A. Swanson


This chapter begins by discussing the conceptual difference between demographic estimates, forecasts and projections. In addition, the chapter reviews different projection methods and their use depending on the availability of relevant data and purpose for which the projections are being made. The chapter demonstrates the use of Gompertz and Logistic models in the projection of whole populations. A section of the chapter shows how the cohort-component method is used to obtain population projections by age and sex. It examines data requirements and variations on the assumptions about future trends and patterns in fertility, mortality and migration. Other methods of projection such as those involving the cohort change ratios are also discussed. In addition, methods for the projection of populations with given socio-economic characteristics is provided. Examples of the computational steps of various projection methods are also given.


Migration Rate Total Fertility Rate Population Projection Survival Ratio Labour Force Participation Rate 
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Copyright information

© Springer Science+Business Media Dordrecht. 2014

Authors and Affiliations

  • Farhat Yusuf
    • 1
    • 2
  • Jo. M. Martins
    • 2
  • David A. Swanson
    • 3
  1. 1.Menzies Centre for Health Policy Sydney School of Public HealthThe University of SydneySydneyAustralia
  2. 2.Department of Marketing and Management Faculty of Business and EconomicsMacquarie UniversityNorth RydeAustralia
  3. 3.Department of Sociology College of Humanities, Arts and Social SciencesUniversity of California RiversideRiversideUSA

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