Abstract
This chapter sets out a new approach to understanding the relationship between migration and climate change. Based on the understanding that migration is a significant, growing, but also complex phenomenon, this approach seeks to address the sensitivity of existing migration drivers in specific contexts to climate change. In contrast to existing approaches which have sought to generate global-level estimates of the numbers of ‘climate migrants’, this integrated assessment approach seeks instead to understand how and why existing flows from and to specific locations may change in the future, and provide a practical tool for climate adaptation planning. Examples of the application of this approach are provided for Ghana and Bangladesh.
Keywords
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The UN population division projects an increase of the world population from 6.8 billion in 2009 to over 9 billion by 2050.
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Of course, the possibility remains that genuinely new flows could be generated by climate change, involving groups of people who have not previously migrated and/or new destinations opening up. However, the emergence of these new flows would depend on various factors, such as the availability and attractiveness of new destinations, and the financial, human, and social capital of prospective migrants.
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Black, R., Kniveton, D., Schmidt-Verkerk, K. (2013). Migration and Climate Change: Toward an Integrated Assessment of Sensitivity. In: Faist, T., Schade, J. (eds) Disentangling Migration and Climate Change. Springer, Dordrecht. https://doi.org/10.1007/978-94-007-6208-4_2
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