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The Applicability of the Lee-Carter Method to Forecast Health Services Use in Brazil

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Applied Demography and Public Health

Part of the book series: Applied Demography Series ((ADS,volume 3))

Abstract

The world population age structure has been going through major changes in the past few decades (Bloom 2011; Lee 2011). The average age of the population by 2050 will be 41.9 years old, and the percentage of elderly will rise from 7.6 to 16.2 % in the same period (United Nations 2011). Population aging is increasing the concern about the sustainability of health care systems and health care costs around the world.

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Notes

  1. 1.

    The number of admissions by age is available in the database only after 1993.

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Author information

Authors and Affiliations

  1. Department of Accounting and Actuarial Science, University of São Paulo (USP), São Paulo, Brazil

    Cristina Guimarães Rodrigues

  2. Department of Economics, Federal University of Minas Gerais (UFMG), Belo Horizonte, Brazil

    Mônica Viegas Andrade

  3. Department of Demography, Federal University of Minas Gerais (UFMG), Belo Horizonte, Brazil

    Bernardo Lanza Queiroz

  4. School of Medicine, Federal University of Minas Gerais (UFMG), Belo Horizonte, Brazil

    Carla Jorge Machado

Authors
  1. Cristina Guimarães Rodrigues
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  2. Mônica Viegas Andrade
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  3. Bernardo Lanza Queiroz
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  4. Carla Jorge Machado
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Corresponding author

Correspondence to Cristina Guimarães Rodrigues .

Editor information

Editors and Affiliations

  1. , Dept of Demography, University of Texas, San Antonio, West Cesar E. Chavez Boulevard 501, San Antonio, 78207, Texas, USA

    Nazrul Hoque

  2. , Arkansas Department of Health, Health Statistics Branch, West Markham Street, Slot 19 4815, Little Rock, 72205-3867, Arkansas, USA

    Mary A. McGehee

  3. , School of Public Health, The University of Texas, John Smith Drive, Suite 200 7411, San Antonio, 78229, Texas, USA

    Benjamin S. Bradshaw

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Rodrigues, C.G., Andrade, M.V., Queiroz, B.L., Machado, C.J. (2013). The Applicability of the Lee-Carter Method to Forecast Health Services Use in Brazil. In: Hoque, N., McGehee, M., Bradshaw, B. (eds) Applied Demography and Public Health. Applied Demography Series, vol 3. Springer, Dordrecht. https://doi.org/10.1007/978-94-007-6140-7_21

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