Abstract
We present a first assessment of the detection of a signal of temperature change over the Mediterranean domain, using HadCRUT3v observation dataset and model outputs from the CMIP3 climate simulations. For this study we have used two new formal detection methodologies, the ‘Regularized Optimal Fingerprint’ and the ‘Temporal Optimal Detection’, developed within the context of the CIRCE project and aiming at improving the ability to detect a climate change signal at the regional scale. We have also applied the ‘Consistency’ method that allows to answer the question whether a given forcing is a plausible explanation of an observed change. The results show the detection of a change on spatially centered temperatures, that allows to identify a regional structure of change additional to the global warming. The formal detection findings also extend to the winter and summer spatial patterns of temperature change. By applying the ‘Consistency’ method, we also detect the GS (Greenhouse gases and Sulfate aerosol) signal in observed annual and seasonal area-mean warming except in winter. Further we find that the recent trends in near-surface temperature are significantly consistent with the simulated GS patterns. Concerning precipitation, we cannot detect formally a signal of climate change on Mediterranean precipitation using 17 series of monthly precipitation from Croatian, French and Italian coastal stations and the CMIP3 climate simulations. However this may be due, at least partly, to the limited extent of the region covered with the precipitation series.
This is a preview of subscription content, log in via an institution to check access.
Access this chapter
Tax calculation will be finalised at checkout
Purchases are for personal use only
References
Allen MR, Stott PA (2003) Estimating signal amplitudes in optimal fingerprinting. Part I: Theory. Clim Dyn 21:477–491
Barkhordarian A, Bhend J, von Storch H (2012) Consistency of observed near surface temperature trends with climate change projections over the Mediterranean region. Clim Dyn 38(9–10):1695–1702
Bhend J, von Storch H (2008) Consistency of observed winter precipitation trends in northern Europe with regional climate change projections. Clim Dyn 31:17–28
Bhend J, von Storch H (2009) Is greenhouse gas forcing a plausible explanation for the observed warming in the Baltic Sea catchments area? Boreal Environ Res 14:81–88
Brohan P, Kennedy JJ, Harris I, Tett SFB, Jones PD (2006) Uncertainty estimates in regional and global observed temperature changes: a new data set from 1850. J Geophys Res 111:D12106
Hasselmann K (1993) Optimal fingerprints for the detection of time-dependent climate change. J Climate 6:1957–1971
Hegerl GC, Zwiers FW, Braconnot P, Gillett NP, Luo Y, Marengo Orsini JA, Nicholls N, Penner JE, Stott PA (2007) Understanding and attributing climate change. In: Solomon S, Qin D, Manning M, Chen Z, Marquis M, Averyt KB, Tignor M, Miller HL (eds) Climate change 2007: the physical science basis, contribution of working group I to the fourth assessment report of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change. Cambridge University Press, Cambridge/New York, pp 663–745
IPCC (2001) Climate change 2001: the scientific basis. Contribution of working group I to the third assessment report of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change. Cambridge University Press, Cambridge/New York
IPCC (2007) Climate change 2007: the physical science basis, contribution of working group I to the fourth assessment report of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change. Cambridge University Press, Cambridge/New York, pp 663–745
Jones PD, Osborn TJ, Briffa KR, Folland CK, Horton EB, Alexander LV, Parker DE, Rayner NA (2001) Adjusting for sampling density in grid box land and ocean surface temperature time series. J Geophys Res 106:3371–3380
Kuglitsch FG, Toreti A, Xoplaki E, Della-Marta PM, Luterbacher J, Wanner H (2009) Homogenization of daily maximum temperature series in the Mediterranean. J Geophys Res 114:D15
Lionello P, Malanotte-Rizzoli P, Boscolo R, Alpert P, Artale V, Li L, Luterbacher J, May W, Trigo R, Tsimplis M, Ulbrich U, Xoplaki E (2006) Mediterranean climate variability over the last centuries. In: Lionello P, Malanotte-Rizzoli P, Boscolo R (eds) The Mediterranean climate: an overview of the main characteristics and issues. Elsevier, Amsterdam, pp 1–26
Ribes A, Azaïs J-M, Planton S (2009) Adaptation of the optimal fingerprint method for climate change detection using a well-conditioned covariance matrix estimate. Clim Dyn 33:707–722
Ribes A, Azaïs J-M, Planton S (2010) A method for regional climate change detection using smooth temporal patterns. Clim Dyn 35(2–3):391–406
Santer BD, Wigley TML, Jones PD (1993) Correlation methods in fingerprint detection studies. Clim Dyn 8(6):265–276
Stott PA, Stone DA, Allen MR (2004) Human contribution to the European heat wave of 2003. Nature 432:610–614
von Storch H, Zwiers F (1999) Statistical analysis in climate research. Cambridge University Press, Cambridge
Wilks DS (1997) Resampling hypothesis tests for autocorrelated fields. J Climate 10(1):65–82
Zhang X, Zwiers FW, Stott PA (2006) Multimodel multisignal climate change detection at regional scale. J Climate 19:4294–4307
Zhang X, Zwiers FW, Hegerl GC, Lambert FH, Gillett NP, Solomon S, Stott PA, Nozawa T (2007) Detection of human influence on twentieth-century precipitation trends. Nature 448:461–465
Acknowledgments
We thank E. Xoplaki, J. Luterbacher, A. Toreti and F.G. Kuglitsch for homogenized monthly series of precipitation.
Author information
Authors and Affiliations
Corresponding author
Editor information
Editors and Affiliations
Rights and permissions
Copyright information
© 2013 Springer Science+Business Media Dordrecht
About this chapter
Cite this chapter
Planton, S., Barkhordarian, A., Ribes, A., Von Storch, H. (2013). Detection and Attribution. In: Navarra, A., Tubiana, L. (eds) Regional Assessment of Climate Change in the Mediterranean. Advances in Global Change Research, vol 50. Springer, Dordrecht. https://doi.org/10.1007/978-94-007-5781-3_5
Download citation
DOI: https://doi.org/10.1007/978-94-007-5781-3_5
Published:
Publisher Name: Springer, Dordrecht
Print ISBN: 978-94-007-5780-6
Online ISBN: 978-94-007-5781-3
eBook Packages: Earth and Environmental ScienceEarth and Environmental Science (R0)