Skip to main content
SpringerLink
Log in

Mediterranean Tourism and Climate Change: Identifying Future Demand and Assessing Destinations’ Vulnerability

  • Chapter
  • First Online:
Regional Assessment of Climate Change in the Mediterranean

Part of the book series: Advances in Global Change Research ((AGLO,volume 51))

Abstract

This chapter estimates the trends, impacts and responses of Mediterranean tourism, with special emphasis on coastal areas. It presents some part of the work done by two research lines (Economic impacts, Induced policies), namely scenarios for future tourism flows (regional and national scales) and a method for assessing vulnerability of local destinations.

This is a preview of subscription content, log in via an institution to check access.

Access this chapter

Log in via an institution
Chapter
USD 29.95
Price excludes VAT (USA)
  • Available as PDF
  • Read on any device
  • Instant download
  • Own it forever
eBook
USD 89.00
Price excludes VAT (USA)
  • Available as EPUB and PDF
  • Read on any device
  • Instant download
  • Own it forever
Softcover Book
USD 119.99
Price excludes VAT (USA)
  • Compact, lightweight edition
  • Dispatched in 3 to 5 business days
  • Free shipping worldwide - see info
Hardcover Book
USD 169.99
Price excludes VAT (USA)
  • Durable hardcover edition
  • Dispatched in 3 to 5 business days
  • Free shipping worldwide - see info

Tax calculation will be finalised at checkout

Purchases are for personal use only

Institutional subscriptions

Notes

  1. 1.

    Including: Albania, Algeria, Croatia, Cyprus, Egypt, France, Greece, Israel, Italy, Lebanon, Libya, Malta, Montenegro, Morocco, Slovenia, Spain, Syria, Tunisia and Turkey.

  2. 2.

    For comparison: the Americas had 109 million international arrivals (16%), Western Europe had 139.7 million international arrivals (20%) and Asia and the Pacific had 110 million international arrivals (16%) in 2000 (UNWTO 2005).

  3. 3.

    Not reporting: Algeria, Egypt, Lebanon, Libya, Malta, Tunisia and Turkey.

  4. 4.

    The sub-national breakdown of tourist arrivals will be discussed later in the chapter.

  5. 5.

    This explains why fieldwork developed in the CIRCE project had been focused on seaside tourism and had considered tourism in its global dimension. The whole set of direct and indirect activities that determine the tourism potential and/or that benefit from tourism development (e.g. airport services, taxis, farming and fisheries activities, small groceries, etc.) had thus not been taken into account separately, although all of them will be impacted by a decrease of tourism in case of too constraining climatic conditions. We judged in this research that having an understanding of the general processes at work (considering the tourism territory as a coherent system rather than focusing on the multiple forms of tourism) was a preliminary work. Conclusions should thus have to be completed by in-depth local case studies in order to explain the chain of impacts that lead from a general decrease/reorganisation in tourism flows to an economic catastrophe affecting the whole territory. Considering coastal tourism as the driver of tourism in the Mediterranean also led us to not study the potential consequences of climate change on winter and urban tourism, e.g., although these impacts could be of major importance for mountain territories and cities, respectively. Here again, specific studies should be conducted.

  6. 6.

    NUTS is a classification system of regions used by countries in the European Union. NUTS 2 is the second level of this system and the best informed in terms of data.

  7. 7.

    The expression is borrowed from J. Turner and L. Ash (The golden hordes: international tourism and the pleasure periphery, 1976, St. Martin’s Press).

  8. 8.

    http://www.planbleu.org/indexUK.html

  9. 9.

    For detailed and Mediterranean targeted climate projections, please refer to Part I of the RACCM.

  10. 10.

    It should be noted here that the consequences of both changes in tourism arrivals levels and the spatial reorganisation of the flows on national economies have been more in-depth analyzed in Chap. 1 (Bosello et al.), notably using the HTM model. Please, refer to this chapter.

  11. 11.

    The work we developed in the CIRCE project had not consisted in an in-depth analysis of past events and of societies’ reaction to these events, mainly because of a lack of time and access to reliable and exhaustive sources of data. We rather paid attention to the current situation in order to examine what is currently at stake in a context of gradual environmental changes.

  12. 12.

    Sebkhas are coastal lagoons in desert areas that have been separated from the sea by sand barriers.

  13. 13.

    For a more detailed presentation of the procedure, see Duvat and Magnan (2009).

References

  • Agnew M, Palutikof J (2006) Impacts of short-term climate variability in the UK on demand for domestic and international tourism. Climate Res 21:109–120

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • Amelung B, Scott D (2007) Tourist climate requirements. E-CLAT technical seminar “Policy dialogue on tourism, transport and climate change: stakeholders meet researchers”, Paris, 15 Mar 2007, 7 p

    Google Scholar 

  • Amelung B, Viner D (2006) Mediterranean tourism: exploring the future with the tourism climatic index. J Sustain Tourism 14(4):349–366

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • Benoit G, Comeau A (eds) (2005) A sustainable future for the Mediterranean. EarthScan, London

    Google Scholar 

  • Berritella M, Bigano A, Roson R, Tol R (2006) A general equilibrium analysis of climate change impacts on tourism. Tour Manag 27:913–942

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • Besancenot J-P (1990) Climat et Tourisme. Masson, Paris

    Google Scholar 

  • Bethemont J, Carré F, Dauphiné A, Daviet S, Drain M, Escallier R, Miossec J-M, Pelletier J, Prévalakis G, Thumerelle J-P, Troin J-F (1998) Le monde méditerranéen: thèmes et problèmes géographiques. SEDES, Paris

    Google Scholar 

  • Bigano A, Hamilton JM, Maddison DJ, Tol RSJ (2006a) Predicting tourism flows under climate change. An editorial comment on Gössling and Hall (2006). Clim Chang 79:175–180

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • Bigano A, Hamilton JM, Tol RSJ (2006b) The impact of climate change on domestic and international tourism: a simulation study. FEEM working paper no. 86

    Google Scholar 

  • Bigano A, Hamilton JM, Tol RSJ (2008) Climate change and tourism in the Mediterranean. In: Research unit sustainability and global change FNU-157. Hamburg University and Centre for Marine and Atmospheric Science, Hamburg

    Google Scholar 

  • Billé R, Kieken H, Magnan A (2009) Tourism and climate change: challenges and prospects. MAP technical reports series no. 173. UNEP/MAP, Athens

    Google Scholar 

  • Bourgou M (2005) Les plages. Impacts des aménagements touristiques et portuaires sur leur évolution récente. Exemples tunisiens. CERES Editions, Tunis

    Google Scholar 

  • Brooks N, Adger WN, Kelly PM (2005) The determinants of vulnerability and adaptive capacity at the national level and the implications for adaptation. Glob Environ Chang 15:151–163

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • Bujosa A, Rosselló J (2009) The role of temperature and other environmental factors on coastal d estination choice. An application to Spanish domestic tourism. In: 11th International BIOECON Conference, Venice

    Google Scholar 

  • Céron J-P, Dubois G (2004) The potential impacts of climate change on French tourism. Curr Issues Tourism 8(2–3):125–139

    Google Scholar 

  • D4E (Direction des Études Économiques et de l’Évaluation Environnementale) (2008) Déplacements touristiques des Français: hyper concentration des comportements les plus émetteurs de gaz à effet de serre. Évaluation, 11 (February)

    Google Scholar 

  • Downing TE, Patwardhan A (2003) Vulnerability assessment for climate adaptation. APF technical paper 3. UNDP, New York City

    Google Scholar 

  • Dutrieux E, Canovas S, Denis J, Hénocque Y, Quod J-P, Bigot L (2000) Guide méthodologique pour l’utilisation de cartes de vulnérabilité des zones côtières de l’Océan Indien. UNESCO Editions, Paris

    Google Scholar 

  • Duvat V, Magnan A (2009) Coastal vulnerability assessment in Djerba (Tunisia). In: Özhan E (ed) Proceedings of the ninth international conference on the Mediterranean coastal environment, MedCoast 2009. Medcoast foundation, Ankara, pp 355–366

    Google Scholar 

  • Eugenio-Martin JL, Campos-Soria JA (2010) Climate in the region of origin and destination choice in outbound tourism demand. Tour Manage 31(6):744–753

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • EUROSTAT (2009) Arrivals NUTS 2 – annual data (tour_occ_arn2), Regional tourism statistics. [database] http://epp.eurostat.ec.europa.eu/portal/page/portal/region_cities/regional_statistics/data/database/

  • Füssel H-M, Klein RJT (2006) Climate change vulnerability assessments: an evolution of conceptual thinking. Clim Chang 75:301–329

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • Giles AR, Perry AH (1998) The use of a temporal analogue to investigate the possible impact of projected global warming on the UK tourist industry. Tour Manage 19:75–80

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • Gómez Martín B (2005) Weather, climate and tourism: a geographical perspective. Ann Tourism Res 32(3):571–591

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • Gössling S, Hall MC (2006) Uncertainties in predicting tourist flows under scenarios of climate change. Clim Chang 79:163–173

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • Hallegatte S (2009) Strategies to adapt to an uncertain climate change. Glob Environ Chang 19:240–247

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • Hamilton JM, Tol RSJ (2007) The impact of climate change on tourism in Germany, the UK and Ireland: a simulation study. Reg Environ Chang 7:161–172

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • Hamilton JM, Tol RSJ (2010) Beach area and regional tourism demand in the European Union. In: Research unit sustainability and global change FNU-XX. Hamburg University and Centre for Marine and Atmospheric Science, Hamburg

    Google Scholar 

  • Hamilton JM, Maddison D, Tol RSJ (2005a) Climate change and international tourism: a simulation study. Glob Environ Chang 15:253–266

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • Hamilton JM, Maddison D, Tol RSJ (2005b) The effects on climate change on international tourism. Climate Res 29:245–254

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • IPCC (2007) Fourth assessment report: synthesis report. [pdf document] http://www.ipcc.ch/publications_and_data/publications_ipcc_fourth_assessment_report_synthesis_report.htm

  • Lise W, Tol RSJ (2002) Impact of climate on tourist demand. Clim Chang 55:429–449

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • Lise W, Tol RSJ (2003) Sensitivity of tourist destination choice to climate. In: Giupponi C, Schechter M (eds) Climate change in the Mediterranean: socio-economic perspectives of impacts, vulnerability and adaptation. Edward Elgar Publishing, Cheltenham, pp 290–318

    Google Scholar 

  • Lozato-Giotart J-P (1990) Méditerranée et tourisme. Masson, Paris

    Google Scholar 

  • Maddison D (2001) In search of warmer climates? The impact of climate change on flows of British tourist. Clim Chang 49:193–208

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • Magnan A (2009a) Mediterranean coastal tourism facing climate change uncertainties. In: Özhan E (ed) Proceedings of the ninth international conference on the Mediterranean coastal environment, MedCoast 2009. Medcoast foundation, Ankara, pp 361–372

    Google Scholar 

  • Magnan A (2009b) La vulnérabilité des territoires littoraux au changement climatique: mise au point conceptuelle et facteurs d’influence. Iddri, Analyses, Paris

    Google Scholar 

  • Magnan A (2010) For a better understanding of adaptive capacity to climate change: a research framework. Iddri, Analyses, Paris

    Google Scholar 

  • Magnan A, Garnaud B, Billé R, Gemenne F, Hallegatte S (2009) The future of the Mediterranean: from impacts of climate change to adaptation issues. Iddri, Analyses, Paris

    Google Scholar 

  • Matzarakis A (2002) Examples of climate and tourism research for tourism demands. In: Proceedings of the 15th conference on biometeorology and aerobiology joint with the international congress on biometeorology, 28 Oct–1 Nov 2002. American Meteorological Society, Kansas City

    Google Scholar 

  • Mieczkowski Z (1985) The tourism climatic index: a method of evaluating world climates for tourism. Can Geogr 29:220–233

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • Miossec J-M (1998) Le tourisme et les aménagements touristiques. In: Miossec A (ed) Géographie humaine des littoraux. CNED-SEDES, Paris, pp 309–412

    Google Scholar 

  • Miossec J-M, Paskoff R (1979) Évolution des plages et aménagements touristiques à Jerba (Tunisie): le cas du littoral nord-est de l’île. Méditerranée 1–2:99–106

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • Nicholls RJ, Hoozemans FM (1996) The Mediterranean vulnerability to coastal implications of climate change. Ocean Coast Manage 31:105–132

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • Oueslati A (2004) Littoral et aménagement en Tunisie. Orbis, Tunis

    Google Scholar 

  • Paskoff R (2003) L’érosion des côtes: le cas des plages de l’île de Jerba. In: Proceedings of the symposium “Gestion du risque eau en pays semi-aride”, Tunis

    Google Scholar 

  • Patt GA, Schröter D, Klein RJT, de la Vega-Leinert CA (eds) (2009) Assessing vulnerability to global environmental change: making research useful for adaptation, decision-making and policy. EarthScan, London

    Google Scholar 

  • Perry A (2000) Impacts of climate change on tourism in the Mediterranean: adaptive responses. Fondazione Eni Enrico Mattei, Milano

    Google Scholar 

  • Perry A (2003) Impacts of climate change on tourism in the Mediterranean: adaptive responses. In: Giupponi C, Schechter M (eds) Climate change in the Mediterranean: socio-economic perspectives of impacts, vulnerability and adaptation. Edward Elgar Publishing, Cheltenham, pp 279–289

    Google Scholar 

  • Romieu E, Vinchon C (2009) Evaluation de la vulnérabilité en zone côtière: état de l’art et analyse critique. BRGM reports, BRGM/RP-57389-FR

    Google Scholar 

  • Rosselló J (2011) North Atlantic oscillation influences on European airline traffic. Transport Res D 16(2):183–187

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • Rosselló J, Riera A, Cardenas V (2010) The impact of weather variability on British outbound flows. Clim Chang 105:281–292

    Google Scholar 

  • Scott D, Amelung B, Becken S, Ceron J-P, Dubois G, Gossling S, Peeters P, Simpson MC (2007) Climate change and tourism: responding to global challenges, UWTO-UNEP-WMO report [pdf document] http://www.unep.fr/shared/publications/pdf/WEBx0142xPA-ClimateChangeandTourismGlobalChallenges.pdf

  • Simpson MC, Gössling S, Scott D, Hall CM, Gladin E (2008) Climate change adaptation and mitigation in the tourism sector: frameworks, tools and practices. UNEP report [pdf document] http://www.unep.fr/shared/publications/pdf/DTIx1047xPA-ClimateChange.pdf

  • Smit B, Wandel J (2006) Adaptation, adaptive capacity and vulnerability. Glob Environ Chang 16:282–292

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • Smith K (1990) Tourism and climate change. Land Use Policy 2:176–180

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • Song H, Li G (2008) Tourism demand modeling and forecasting – a review of recent research. Tour Manage 29:203–220

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • Song H, Witt SF, Li G (2009) The advanced econometrics of tourism demand. Routledge, New York

    Google Scholar 

  • Subak S, Palutikof J, Agnew M, Watson S, Bentham C, Cannel M, Hulme M, McNally S, Thornes J, Waughray D, Woods J (2000) The impact of the anomalous weather of 1995 on the UK Economy. Clim Chang 44:1–26

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • UNWTO (2005) Yearbook of tourism statistics: A–L; M–Z; statistical data in Excel format. UNWTO, Madrid

    Google Scholar 

  • UNWTO (2006) Tourism market trends, 2006 edition-annex [pdf document] http://www.world-tourism.org/facts/eng/pdf/historical/ITA_1950_2005.pdf

  • UNWTO (2008) Climate change and tourism: responding to global challenges. UNWTO, Madrid

    Google Scholar 

  • Villevieille A (ed) (1997) Les risques naturels en Méditerranée. Situation et perspectives. Economica, Paris

    Google Scholar 

  • WTTC (2009) The 2009 travel and tourism economic impact. Executive summary. World Travel and Tourism Council, London [pdf document] http://www.wttc.org/bin/pdf/original_pdf_file/exec_summary_2009.pdf

Download references

Author information

Authors and Affiliations

  1. Institute for Sustainable Development and International Relations, IDDRI, Paris, France

    Alexandre Magnan & Raphaël Billé

  2. Research Unit Sustainability and Global Change, Universität Hamburg, UNIHH, Hamburg, Germany

    Jacqueline Hamilton

  3. Centre de Recerca Econòmica and Departament d’Economia Aplicada, Universitat de les Illes Balears, UIB, Palma (Illes Balears), Spain

    Jaume Rosselló & Angel Bujosa

Authors
  1. Alexandre Magnan
    View author publications

    You can also search for this author in PubMed Google Scholar

  2. Jacqueline Hamilton
    View author publications

    You can also search for this author in PubMed Google Scholar

  3. Jaume Rosselló
    View author publications

    You can also search for this author in PubMed Google Scholar

  4. Raphaël Billé
    View author publications

    You can also search for this author in PubMed Google Scholar

  5. Angel Bujosa
    View author publications

    You can also search for this author in PubMed Google Scholar

Corresponding author

Correspondence to Alexandre Magnan .

Editor information

Editors and Affiliations

  1. Climate Change (CMCC), Euro-Mediterranean Center on Climate Change (CMCC), Lecce, Italy

    Antonio Navarra

  2. IDDRI SciencesPo, Paris, France

    Laurence Tubiana

Rights and permissions

Reprints and permissions

Copyright information

© 2013 Springer Science+Business Media Dordrecht

About this chapter

Cite this chapter

Magnan, A., Hamilton, J., Rosselló, J., Billé, R., Bujosa, A. (2013). Mediterranean Tourism and Climate Change: Identifying Future Demand and Assessing Destinations’ Vulnerability. In: Navarra, A., Tubiana, L. (eds) Regional Assessment of Climate Change in the Mediterranean. Advances in Global Change Research, vol 51. Springer, Dordrecht. https://doi.org/10.1007/978-94-007-5772-1_15

Download citation

Publish with us

Policies and ethics

Search

Navigation