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Integration of the Climate Impact Assessments with Future Projections

Chapter
Part of the Advances in Global Change Research book series (AGLO, volume 52)

Abstract

Climate projections are essential in order to extend the case-study impacts and vulnerability assessments to encompass future climate change. Thus climate-model based indicators for the future (to 2050 and for the A1B emissions scenario) are presented for the climate and atmosphere theme (including indices of temperature and precipitation extreme events), together with biogeophysical and socioeconomic indicators encompassing the other case-study themes. For the latter, the specific examples presented here include peri-urban fires, air pollution, human health risks, energy demand, alien marine species and tourism (attractiveness and socio-economic consequences). The primary source of information about future climate is the set of global and regional model simulations performed as part of CIRCE. These have the main novel characteristic of incorporating a realistic representation of the Mediterranean Sea including coupling between sea and atmosphere. These projections are inevitably subject to uncertainties relating to unpredictability, model structural uncertainty and value uncertainty. These uncertainties are addressed by taking a multi-model approach, but problems remain, for example, due to a systematic cold bias in the CIRCE models. In the context of the case-study integrated assessments, there are also uncertainties ‘downstream’ of climate modeling and the construction of climate change projections – largely relating to the modeling of impacts. In addition, there are uncertainties associated with all socio-economic projections used in the case studies – such as population projections. Thus there are uncertainties inherent to all stages of the integrated assessments and it is important to consider all these aspects in the context of adaptation decision making.

Keywords

Climate change Mediterranean Climate projections Impacts Integrated assessment 

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Copyright information

© Springer Science+Business Media Dordrecht 2013

Authors and Affiliations

  1. 1.Climatic Research Unit, School of Environmental SciencesUniversity of East Anglia, UEANorwichUK
  2. 2.Institute for Environmental Research and Sustainable DevelopmentNational Observatory of AthensAthensGreece
  3. 3.Climate Impacts Analysis TeamMet Office Hadley CentreExeter, DevonUK
  4. 4.Department of Plant, Soil and Environmental Science (DIPSA)University of FlorenceFlorenceItaly
  5. 5.Institute for Biometeorology, National Research Council of Italy, (CNR-IBIMET)FlorenceItaly
  6. 6.Institut National des Sciences et Technologies de la Mer – INSTMSalammbôTunisia
  7. 7.Centro Euro Mediterraneo per i Cambiamenti Climatici (CMCC)LecceItaly
  8. 8.School of Earth and Environmental Sciences, Schmid College of Science and TechnologyChapman UniversityOrangeUSA
  9. 9.Department of Environmental Sciences, Faculty of ScienceAlexandria UniversityAlexandriaEgypt
  10. 10.Faculty of Engineering and ArchitectureAmerican University of BeirutBeirutLebanon
  11. 11.University of AlexandriaAlexandriaEgypt
  12. 12.Institute of Plant Sciences and Genetics in Agriculture, The Robert H. Smith Faculty of Agriculture, Food and EnvironmentThe Hebrew University of JerusalemJerusalemIsrael
  13. 13.Department of Material ScienceUniversity of SalentoLecceItaly
  14. 14.Laboratori d’Enginyeria Marìtima (LIM/UPC)Universitat Politécnica de CatalunyaBarcelonaSpain
  15. 15.International Center for Agricultural Research in the Dry Areas, ICARDAAleppoSyria
  16. 16.Association Recherche Climat et Environnement – ARCEOranAlgeria

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