Advertisement

Integration of the Climate Impact Assessments with Future Projections

Chapter
First Online:
Part of the Advances in Global Change Research book series (AGLO, volume 52)

Abstract

Climate projections are essential in order to extend the case-study impacts and vulnerability assessments to encompass future climate change. Thus climate-model based indicators for the future (to 2050 and for the A1B emissions scenario) are presented for the climate and atmosphere theme (including indices of temperature and precipitation extreme events), together with biogeophysical and socioeconomic indicators encompassing the other case-study themes. For the latter, the specific examples presented here include peri-urban fires, air pollution, human health risks, energy demand, alien marine species and tourism (attractiveness and socio-economic consequences). The primary source of information about future climate is the set of global and regional model simulations performed as part of CIRCE. These have the main novel characteristic of incorporating a realistic representation of the Mediterranean Sea including coupling between sea and atmosphere. These projections are inevitably subject to uncertainties relating to unpredictability, model structural uncertainty and value uncertainty. These uncertainties are addressed by taking a multi-model approach, but problems remain, for example, due to a systematic cold bias in the CIRCE models. In the context of the case-study integrated assessments, there are also uncertainties ‘downstream’ of climate modeling and the construction of climate change projections – largely relating to the modeling of impacts. In addition, there are uncertainties associated with all socio-economic projections used in the case studies – such as population projections. Thus there are uncertainties inherent to all stages of the integrated assessments and it is important to consider all these aspects in the context of adaptation decision making.

Keywords

Climate change Mediterranean Climate projections Impacts Integrated assessment 
This is a preview of subscription content, log in to check access.

References

  1. Beniston M (2004) The 2003 heat wave in Europe: a shape of things to come? An analysis based on Swiss climatological data and model simulations. Geophys Res Lett 31. doi: 10.1029/2003GL018857
  2. Beniston M, Diaz HF (2004) The 2003 heat wave as an example of summers in a greenhouse climate? Observations and climate model simulations for Basel, Switzerland. Glob Planet Chang 44:73–81CrossRefGoogle Scholar
  3. Beniston M, Stephenson DB, Christensen OB, Ferro CAT, Frei C, Goyette S, Halsnaes K, Holt T, Jylhä K, Koffi B, Palutikof J, Schöll R, Semmler T, Woth K (2007) Future extreme events in European climate: an exploration of regional climate model projections. Clim Chang 81:71–95. doi: 10.1007/s10584-006-9226-z CrossRefGoogle Scholar
  4. Bigano A, Hamilton JM, Tol RSJ (2008) Climate change and tourism in the Mediterranean. Research unit sustainability and global change FNU-157. Hamburg University and Centre for Marine and Atmospheric Science, HamburgGoogle Scholar
  5. Bindoff NL, Willebrand J, Artale V, Cazenave A, Gregory J, Gulev S, Hanawa K, Le Quéré C, Levitus S, Nojiri Y, Shum CK, Talley LD, Unnikrishnan A (2007) Observations: oceanic climate change and sea level. In: Solomon S, Qin D, Manning M, Chen Z, Marquis M, Averyt KB, Tignor M, Miller HL (eds) Climate change 2007: the physical science basis. Contribution of Working Group I to the Fourth Assessment Report of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change. Cambridge University Press, Cambridge/New York  Google Scholar
  6. Bloomer BJ, Stehr JW, Piety CA, Salawitch RJ, Dickerson R (2009) Observed relationships of ozone air pollution with temperature and emissions. Geophys Res Lett 36:L09803CrossRefGoogle Scholar
  7. Burke EJ, Brown SJ (2008) Evaluating uncertainties in the projection of future drought. J Hydrometeorol 9(2):292–299CrossRefGoogle Scholar
  8. Carter TR, Jones RN, Lu X, Bhadwal S, Conde C, Mearns LO, O’Neill BC, Rounsevell MDA, Zurek MB (2007) New assessment methods and the characterisation of future conditions. In: Parry ML, Canziani OF, Palutikof JP, van der Linden PJ, Hanson CE (eds) Climate change 2007: impacts, adaptation and vulnerability. Contribution of working group II to the fourth assessment report of the intergovernmental panel on climate change. Cambridge University Press, Cambridge, pp 133–171Google Scholar
  9. Christensen JH, Hewitson B, Busuioc A, Chen A, Gao X, Held I, Jones R, Kolli RK, Kwon WT, Laprise R, Magaña Rueda V, Mearns L, Menéndez CG, Räisänen J, Rinke A, Sarr A, Whetton P (2007) Regional climate projections. In: Solomon S, Qin D, Manning M, Chen Z, Marquis M, Averyt KB, Tignor M, Miller HL (eds) Climate change 2007: the physical science basis. Contribution of working group I to the fourth assessment report of the intergovernmental panel on climate change. Cambridge University Press, New York/Cambridge, pp 847–944Google Scholar
  10. Court-Picon M, Gadbin-Henry C, Guibal F, Roux M (2004) Dendrometry and morphometry of Pinus pinea L. In lower Provence (France): adaptability and variability of provenances. For Ecol Manag 194:319–333CrossRefGoogle Scholar
  11. Dessai S (2002) Heat stress and mortality in Lisbon Part II. An assessment of the potential impacts of climate change. Int J Biometeorol 48:37–44CrossRefGoogle Scholar
  12. Duvat V, Magnan A (2009) Coastal vulnerability assessment in Djerba (Tunisia). In: Özhan E (ed) Proceedings of the ninth international conference on the Mediterranean coastal environment, MedCoast 2009. Medcoast Foundation, Ankara, pp 355–366Google Scholar
  13. El Sayed Frihy O, Deabes EA, Shereet SM, Abdalla FA (2010) Alexandria-Nile Delta coast, Egypt: update and future projection of relative sea-level rise. Environ Earth Sci 61:253–273. doi: 10.1007/s12665-009-0340-x CrossRefGoogle Scholar
  14. El-Zein A, Tewtel-Salem M, Nehme G (2004) A time-series analysis of mortality and air temperature in Greater Beirut. Sci Total Environ 330:71–80CrossRefGoogle Scholar
  15. Forkel R, Knoche R (2007) Nested regional climate-chemistry simulations for central Europe. Compte Rendus Geosci 339:734–746. doi: 10.1016/j.crte.2007.09.018 CrossRefGoogle Scholar
  16. Founda D, Giannakopoulos C (2009) The exceptionally hot summer of 2007 in Athens, Greece. A typical summer in the future climate. Glob Planet Chang 67:227–236CrossRefGoogle Scholar
  17. Giannakopoulos C, Psiloglou V (2006) Trends in energy load demand for Athens, Greece: weather and non-weather related factors. Clim Res 31:97–108CrossRefGoogle Scholar
  18. Giannakopoulos C, LeSager P, Bindi M, Moriondo M, Kostopoulou E, Goodess C (2009) Climatic changes and associated impacts in the Mediterranean resulting from a 2°C. Glob Warm Glob Planet Chang 68(3):209–224CrossRefGoogle Scholar
  19. Giorgi F, Lionello P (2008) Climate change projections for the Mediterranean region. Glob Planet Chang 63:90–104CrossRefGoogle Scholar
  20. Goldammer JG, Mutch RW (2001) Food and Agriculture Organization of the United Nations, Forest Resources Assessment Programme, Global Fire Assessment 1990–2000, Rome, Italy. Available at: http://www.fao.org/docrep/006/ad653e/ad653e02.htm
  21. Good P, Moriondo M, Giannakopoulos C, Bindi M (2008) The meteorological conditions associated with extreme fire risk in Italy and Greece: relevance to climate model studies. Int J Wildland Fire 17(2):155–165CrossRefGoogle Scholar
  22. Goubanova K, Li L (2007) Extremes in temperature and precipitation around the Mediterranean basin in an ensemble of future climate scenario simulations. Glob Planet Chang 57:27–42CrossRefGoogle Scholar
  23. Harzallah A, Bradai MN, Ben Salem S, Hattour A (2010) In: Agnew M, Goodess C (eds) Biogeophysical and social indicators: coastal case studies information sheet: Gulf of Gabès, Tunisia. Climatic Research Unit, School of Environmental Sciences, University of East Anglia, Norwich, UK. Available from: http://www.cru.uea.ac.uk/projects/circe/Gabes.html
  24. Hawkins E, Sutton R (2009) The potential to narrow uncertainty in regional climate predictions. Bull Am Meteorol Soc 90:1095–1107CrossRefGoogle Scholar
  25. Haylock MR, Hofstra N, Klein Tank AMG, Klok EJ, Jones PD, New M (2008) A European daily high-resolution gridded data set of surface temperature and precipitation for 1950–2006. J Geophys Res 113:D20119. doi: 10.1029/2008JD010201 CrossRefGoogle Scholar
  26. Hekkenberg M, Benders RMJ, Moll HC, Schoot Uiterkamp AJM (2009) Indications for a changing electricity demand pattern: the temperature dependence of electricity demand in the Netherlands. Energy Policy 37:1542–1551CrossRefGoogle Scholar
  27. Henia L, Alouane T (2007) Le potentiel climato-touristique de la Tunisie. Actes du X Xème Colloque de l’Association de Climatologie, Carthage, 3–8 Septembre 2007Google Scholar
  28. Hohenegger C, Brockhaus P, Schär C (2008) Towards climate simulations at cloud-resolving scales. Meteorol Zeitschrift 17:383–394CrossRefGoogle Scholar
  29. Iliadis LS (2004) A decision support system applying an integrated fuzzy model for long-term forest fire risk estimation. Environ Model Softw 20:613–621CrossRefGoogle Scholar
  30. ILO (2009) Economically active population estimates and projections, 5th edn. International Labor Organisation, Laboursta. http://laborsta.ilo.org
  31. IPCC (2007) In: Solomon S, Qin D, Manning M, Chen Z, Marquis M, Averyt KB, Tignor M, Miller HL (eds) Contribution of working group I to the fourth assessment report of the intergovernmental panel on climate change. Cambridge University Press, Cambridge, 996 ppGoogle Scholar
  32. Jacob DJ, Logan JA, Gardner GM, Yevich RM, Spivakovsky CM, Wofsy SC, Sillman S, Prather MJ (1993) Factors regulating Ozone over the United States and its export to the global atmosphere. J Geophys Res 98:14817–14826CrossRefGoogle Scholar
  33. Kitoh A, Yatagai A, Alpert P (2008) First super-high-resolution model projection that the ancient “Fertile Crescent” will disappear in this century. Hydrol Res Lett 2:1–4. I: 10.3178/HRL.2.1CrossRefGoogle Scholar
  34. Kurz WA, Apps MJ, Stocks BJ, Stocks BJ, Volney JA (1995) Global climate change: disturbance regimes and biospheric feedbacks of temperate and boreal forests. In: Woodwell GM, Mackenzie FT (eds) Biotic feedbacks in the global climatic system. Will the warming feed the warming? Oxford University Press, New York, pp 119–133Google Scholar
  35. Lin C, Jacob DJ, Fiore AM (2001) Trends in exceedances of the ozone air quality standard in the continental United States, 1980–1998. Atmos Environ 35:3217–3228CrossRefGoogle Scholar
  36. Lionello P, Elvini E, Nizzero A (2003) Ocean waves and storm surges in the Adriatic Sea: intercomparison between the present and doubled CO2 climate scenarios. Clim Res 23:217–231CrossRefGoogle Scholar
  37. Lionello P, Cogo S, Galati MB, Sanna A (2008) The Mediterranean surface wave climate inferred from future scenario simulations. Glob Planet Chang. doi: 10.1016/j.gloplacha.2008.03.004
  38. Lionello P, Galati MB, Elvini E (2010) Extreme storm surge and wind wave climate scenario simulations at the Venetian littoral. Phys Chem Earth. doi: 10.1016/j.pce.2010.04.001
  39. Marcos M, Tsimplis MN (2008) Comparison of results of AOGCMs in the Mediterranean Sea during the 21st century. J Geophys Res 113:C12028. doi: 10.1029/2008JC004820 CrossRefGoogle Scholar
  40. May W (2008) Potential future changes in the characteristics of daily precipitation in Europe simulated by the HIRHAM regional climate model. Clim Dyn 30:581–603CrossRefGoogle Scholar
  41. McCarthy M, Sanderson M (2011) Urban heat islands: sensitivity of urban temperatures to climate change and heat release in four European Cities. In: Hoornweg D, Frire M, Lee M, Bhada P, Yuen B (eds) Cities and climate change: responding to an urgent Agenda. Publication from the fifth urban research symposium, The World Bank, Washington, DCGoogle Scholar
  42. MEDD/PNUD (2008) Etude de la vulnérabilité environnementale et Socio-économique du littoral Tunisien face à une élévation accélérée du niveau de la mer due aux changements climatiques et identification d’une stratégie d’adaptation, Phase II, Ministère de l’Environnement et du Développement Durable, 127 ppGoogle Scholar
  43. Moss RH, Edmonds JA, Hibbard KA, Manning MR, Rose SK, van Vuuren DP, Carter TR, Emori S, Kainuma M, Kram T, Meehl GA, Mitchell JFB, Nakicenovic N, Riahi K, Smith SJ, Stouffer RJ, Thomson AM, Weyant JP, Wilbanks TJ (2010) The next generation of scenarios for climate change research and assessment. Nature 463:747–756. doi: 10.1038/nature08823 CrossRefGoogle Scholar
  44. Sánchez-Arcilla A, Jiménez JA, Valdemoro HI, Gracia V (2008) Implications of climatic change on Spanish Mediterranean Low-lying coasts: the Ebro delta case. J Coast Res 242:306–316. doi: 10.2112/07A-.1 CrossRefGoogle Scholar
  45. Schär C, Vidale P, Lüthi D, Frei C, Haberli C, Liniger MA, Appenzeller C (2004) The role of increasing temperature variability in European summer heatwaves. Nature 427:332–336CrossRefGoogle Scholar
  46. Semenov MA (2008) Simulation of extreme weather events by a stochastic weather generator. Clim Res 35:203–212CrossRefGoogle Scholar
  47. Sheffield J, Wood EF (2008) Projected changes in drought occurrence under future global warming from multi-model, multi-scenario, IPCC AR4 simulations. Clim Dyn 31:79–105CrossRefGoogle Scholar
  48. Sousa PM, Trigo RM, Aizpurua P, Nieto R, Gimeno L, Garcia-Herrera R (2011) Trends and extremes of drought indices throughout the 20th century in the Mediterranean. Nat Hazard Earth Syst 11(1):33–51. doi: 10.5194/nhess-11-33-2011 CrossRefGoogle Scholar
  49. Swart R, Biesbroek R (2009) Climate proofing Europe: a comparative analysis of national adaptation strategies. IOP Conf Ser Earth Environ Sci 6(39):392029. doi: 10.1088/1755-1307/6/39/392029 CrossRefGoogle Scholar
  50. UNDP (United Nations Development Programme) (2002) Energy for sustainable development: a policy agenda. UNDP, New YorkGoogle Scholar
  51. UNEP/MAP (2005) Mediterranean strategy for sustainable development, a framework for environmental sustainability and shared prosperity, UNEP(DEC)/MED IG.16/. United Nations Environment Programme Mediterranean Action Plan, Athens, 36 pp. www.unepmap.org
  52. van der Linden P, Mitchell JFB (eds) (2009) ENSEMBLES: climate change and its im-pacts: summary of research and results from the ENSEMBLES project. Exeter EX1 3PB. Met Office Hadley Centre, FitzRoy Road, UK, 160 pp. http://ensembles-eu.metoffice.com/docs/Ensembles_final_report_Nov09.pdf
  53. Van Wagner CE (1987) Development and structure of a Canadian forest fire weather index system, Forestry technical report 35. Canadian Forestry Service, OttawaGoogle Scholar
  54. Venevsky S, Thonicke K, Sitch S, Cramer W (2002) Simulating fire regimes in human-dominated ecosystems: Iberian Peninsula case study. Glob Chang Biol 8(10):984–998CrossRefGoogle Scholar
  55. Viegas DX, Bovio G, Ferreira A, Nosenzo A, Sol B (1999) Comparative study of various methods of fire danger evaluation in southern Europe. Int J Wildland Fire 9:235–246CrossRefGoogle Scholar
  56. WAMDI group (Hasselmann S, Hasselmann K, Bauer E, Janssen PAEM, Komen G Bertotti L, Lionello P, Guillaume A, Cardone VC, Greenwood JA, Reistad M, Zambresky L, Ewing JA) (1988) The WAM model – a third generation ocean wave prediction model. J Phys Oceanogr 18:1776–1810Google Scholar

Copyright information

© Springer Science+Business Media Dordrecht 2013

Authors and Affiliations

  1. 1.Climatic Research Unit, School of Environmental SciencesUniversity of East Anglia, UEANorwichUK
  2. 2.Institute for Environmental Research and Sustainable DevelopmentNational Observatory of AthensAthensGreece
  3. 3.Climate Impacts Analysis TeamMet Office Hadley CentreExeter, DevonUK
  4. 4.Department of Plant, Soil and Environmental Science (DIPSA)University of FlorenceFlorenceItaly
  5. 5.Institute for Biometeorology, National Research Council of Italy, (CNR-IBIMET)FlorenceItaly
  6. 6.Institut National des Sciences et Technologies de la Mer – INSTMSalammbôTunisia
  7. 7.Centro Euro Mediterraneo per i Cambiamenti Climatici (CMCC)LecceItaly
  8. 8.School of Earth and Environmental Sciences, Schmid College of Science and TechnologyChapman UniversityOrangeUSA
  9. 9.Department of Environmental Sciences, Faculty of ScienceAlexandria UniversityAlexandriaEgypt
  10. 10.Faculty of Engineering and ArchitectureAmerican University of BeirutBeirutLebanon
  11. 11.University of AlexandriaAlexandriaEgypt
  12. 12.Institute of Plant Sciences and Genetics in Agriculture, The Robert H. Smith Faculty of Agriculture, Food and EnvironmentThe Hebrew University of JerusalemJerusalemIsrael
  13. 13.Department of Material ScienceUniversity of SalentoLecceItaly
  14. 14.Laboratori d’Enginyeria Marìtima (LIM/UPC)Universitat Politécnica de CatalunyaBarcelonaSpain
  15. 15.International Center for Agricultural Research in the Dry Areas, ICARDAAleppoSyria
  16. 16.Association Recherche Climat et Environnement – ARCEOranAlgeria

Personalised recommendations

Cite chapter

Buy options