Abstract
Conventional wisdom is expressed by the International Energy Agency (IEA) which projects unabated growth of all fossil energy sources for the foreseeable future. This is in sharp contrast to the scenarios done by the Energy Watch Group (EWG) and the Ludwig-Bölkow-Systemtechnik (LBST). According to these analyses – and also validated by production statistics – the global supply of crude oil reaches its peak around 2006. Supply of natural gas will peak between 2015 and 2025. Coal is also not as abundant as generally assumed. Reserves and production are concentrated on few countries and global production is expected to rise by perhaps 30 % to reach its peak around 2030. Following the peak of oil, as it were the leading fossil energy currency, the supply of all fossil and nuclear energy sources will peak some 10 years later around 2015. The twenty-first century will see the transition to a post fossil energy world.
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- 1.
Referring to IEA projections in the WEO 2006. IEA values for 2015 are interpolated.
- 2.
Recently, the “lack of access” to more promising oil regions has been blamed by the international oil companies for their disappointing performance regarding production volumes.
- 3.
Resources are defined as amounts of coal that are either discovered but cannot be produced economically, or are expected to be discovered in future based on geological indicators. Coal resources are “in-situ” amounts irrespective of production possibilities.
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Schindler, J. (2014). The Availability of Fossil Energy Resources. In: Angrick, M., Burger, A., Lehmann, H. (eds) Factor X. Eco-Efficiency in Industry and Science, vol 29. Springer, Dordrecht. https://doi.org/10.1007/978-94-007-5706-6_2
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