Abstract
Benzo[a]pyrene (BaP) is a highly carcinogenic substance that is created as an unintentional byproduct of combustion processes.
In order to simulate the development of European BaP concentrations between 1980 and 2020 a consistent emission dataset for the time span 1980–2010 was created using the SMOKE-EU emission model. Moreover, a variety of different emission scenarios for the year 2020 was created to estimate the future development of BaP emissions. The emission datasets have been used as input for a modified version of the Chemistry Transport Model (CTM) CMAQ. This CMAQ version is to our knowledge the only regional CTM to include the heterogeneous reaction of particulate BaP with ozone which, besides wet deposition, is the main sink of atmospheric BaP.
It was found that BaP concentrations have been decreasing strongly between 1980 and 2000. This is due to the large reduction of primary BaP emissions from industrial processes, residential wood and coal burning, and vehicle exhausts. Depending on the emission scenario, simulated BaP concentrations over Europe between 2000 and 2020 are changing by −25 to +5 %. Because further reduction of industrial BaP emissions is supposed to be low, the future development depends mainly on the amount of wood used for heat production. Also changes of emissions of ozone precursors showed to impact the degradation of BaP.
Finally, several regions were identified in which the annual BaP target value of 1 ng/m3 was exceeded. In 1980 this was the case for the Po-valley, the Paris metropolitan area, the Rhine-Ruhr area, Vienna, and Madrid. Predictions for 2020 lead to exceedances in the Po-valley, the Paris metropolitan area, and Vienna.
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References
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Questions and Answers
Questioner Name: Stefano Galmarini
Q: Why is BaP not measured regularly and what is the precision of measurements given a target value of 1 ng/m3?
A: For measurements of particulate atmospheric BaP the coefficient of variation is about 10 % and the detection limit, using a high volume sampler over 24 h, is in the range of 50–100 pg/m3. Thus, the minimum sampling duration is given by the atmospheric concentrations of BaP. The highest resolution of BaP measurements currently available are 24–72 h averages. However at most stations BaP measurements are not taken continuously. This is because of the fact that the samples need to be analyzed manually in the laboratory and the samples can not be stored because of degradation processes.
Questioner Name: Marina Astitha
Q: Have you tried to run the model on higher resolutions and investigated the impact on comparisons with measurements and the spatial distribution of BaP?
A: So far we have run CMAQ-BaP on a 54 × 54 km2 and a 24 × 24 km2 grid. Our emission data allow for resolutions up to 5 × 5 km2. We have planned to perform nested CMAQ runs with resolutions up to 6 × 6 km2. Since we have only compared modelled BaP concentrations with observations from rural background measurement stations we do not expect a significant improvement of model performance using higher resolutions. This is of course not necessarily true for urban areas. However, due to the large spatial and temporal uncertainties of BaP emissions from wood burning it is not clear if the model is able to reproduce local urban observations.
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Bieser, J., Aulinger, A., Matthias, V., Quante, M. (2014). Reconstruction of Past and Prediction of Future Benzo[a]pyrene Concentrations Over Europe. In: Steyn, D., Builtjes, P., Timmermans, R. (eds) Air Pollution Modeling and its Application XXII. NATO Science for Peace and Security Series C: Environmental Security. Springer, Dordrecht. https://doi.org/10.1007/978-94-007-5577-2_10
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DOI: https://doi.org/10.1007/978-94-007-5577-2_10
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