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Rural Retirement Destinations: Natural Decrease and the Shared Demographic Destinies of Elderly and Hispanics

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Rural Aging in 21st Century America

Part of the book series: Understanding Population Trends and Processes ((UPTA,volume 7))

Abstract

The United States (US) population is aging rapidly. Increases in life expectancy, persistent and low rates of fertility, and aging of the baby boom cohort have shifted America’s age structure dramatically upward. In this chapter we examine the processes and implications of these longitudinal patterns of population growth and natural decrease in nonmetropolitan retirement counties. We do so by focusing on four specific objectives. First, we compare changing population growth rates in nonmetropolitan retirement to those of other types of rural counties. Second, we show how these population trends have been shaped by age-specific migration patterns across different kinds of counties, including retirement counties. Third, we evaluate changing patterns of natural decrease, which reflects both population aging and low fertility due to persistent out-migration of populations of reproductive age. Finally, we show how incipient natural decrease in many rural counties, including retirement counties, has been delayed or offset by new Hispanic population growth and high fertility, which has counterbalanced the high death rates of the white elderly population. We conclude that in many rural retirement communities, the social and economic interests of the elderly and Hispanic in-migrants are closely intertwined.

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Notes

  1. 1.

    Of course, these secondary effects of natural increase will presumably dissipate with cultural and economic incorporation of Hispanics and aging in place. Fertility rates among native-born Hispanics are substantially lower than rates among foreign-born Hispanics, although age at first birth is much earlier among native-born than foreign-born Hispanics. Like other immigrant populations, fertility rates among Hispanics also tend to decline over successive generations; first generation Hispanics have much higher fertility rates or parities than second- or third-generation Hispanics (Carter 2000).

  2. 2.

    Though it would be extremely valuable to have post-2000 age specific migration data, it is calculated as a residual. Therefore, decennial Census data is required at both of the beginning and end of the period for which age specific migration is calculated.

  3. 3.

    We use data from 2000 to 2005 here because we have detailed birth and death data from NCHS for this period which allows us to calculate Hispanic and non-Hispanic births and deaths and also net migration by the residual method. These data are discussed in more detail in Johnson and Lichter (2008).

  4. 4.

    Differential fertility rates are another important driver of the growing Hispanic contribution to natural increase in retirement destination counties. If current fertility patterns persist, Hispanic women will have 2.99 children during their lifetimes. In contrast, if current fertility rates are sustained, non-Hispanic white women are likely to have 1.87 children. African-American fertility rates are higher than those for whites, but they had declined to 2.13 by 2007. In sum, low non-Hispanic white fertility combined with higher mortality clearly exacerbates the demographic impact of Hispanics on natural increase in retirement areas.

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Authors and Affiliations

  1. Department of Sociology, and Carsey Institute, University of New Hampshire, 73 Main Street, Huddleston Hall, Durham, NH, 03824, USA

    Kenneth M. Johnson

  2. Department of Policy Analysis and Management, and Department of Sociology, Cornell University, 102 MVR, Ithaca, NY, 14853-7601, USA

    Daniel T. Lichter

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Correspondence to Kenneth M. Johnson .

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Editors and Affiliations

  1. , Dept of Development Sociology, Cornell University, Warren Hall 332, Ithaca, 14853-7801, USA

    Nina Glasgow

  2. , Department of Sociology, Utah State University, Old Main Hill 0730, Logan, 84322-0730, USA

    E. Helen Berry

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Johnson, K.M., Lichter, D.T. (2013). Rural Retirement Destinations: Natural Decrease and the Shared Demographic Destinies of Elderly and Hispanics. In: Glasgow, N., Berry, E. (eds) Rural Aging in 21st Century America. Understanding Population Trends and Processes, vol 7. Springer, Dordrecht. https://doi.org/10.1007/978-94-007-5567-3_15

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