Advertisement

The Challenge for Coastal Management During the Third Millennium

  • Richard J. Dawson
  • Robert J. Nicholls
  • Sophie A. Day (née Nicholson-Cole)
Part of the Advances in Global Change Research book series (AGLO, volume 49)

Abstract

Coastal planners and managers face a wide range of challenges around the world during the twenty-first century. These include geomorphological, climatic, and socio-economic drivers of change, their interaction and the societal and governance issues that they raised. The interplay between these challenges motivated the Tyndall Centre for Climate Research’s Coastal Research Programme.

Assessing the impacts of multiple scale drivers and possible responses is problematic, yet failure to do so can limit the utility of the analysis – or lead to undesirable outcomes that are a consequence of thinking too narrowly about a problem. To define and analyse coastal problems in a comprehensive manner, an interdisciplinary team of researchers was assembled. Embracing natural, social and engineering sciences, this team engaged in the development of an integrated assessment, called the Tyndall Coastal Simulator, which was applied and demonstrated in East Anglia in the UK. However, the approach could be applied widely, as discussed at the end of the book.

The Tyndall Coastal Simulator provides a platform to integrate the diverse knowledge and methods developed as part of the integrated assessment process in a meaningful and accessible way. This chapter reviews the need for the Tyndall Coastal Simulator, outlines the main aims of the simulator work and defines its unique contribution to broadscale coastal simulation. It gives an overview of the integrated assessment structure, scenario framework and case study locations adopted in this work, especially North Norfolk. The study site was chosen as an exemplar of the challenges facing coastal stakeholders due to its long history of erosion and flooding and the fact that it is going through a major transition in coastal management strategy. Under this strategy, a number of currently protected clifftop communities will lose their defences causing widespread concern. Hence, this provides a good study site to develop transferable lessons on the analysis of coastal change and hazards, as well as the issue of managing transitions which will be essential under climate change.

This book builds upon, and significantly extends, work reported in an earlier paper by Dawson et al. (Climatic Change 95:249–288, 2009), included as an Appendix to this chapter, by providing a complete record of methods, results and analysis from the Tyndall Coastal Simulator as well as reflections on broadscale coastal simulation from British and International practitioners and researchers on this 10-year-research effort.

Keywords

Integrated assessment Coastal change Shoreline management North Norfolk Tyndall Coastal Simulator 

References

  1. ABPMer. (2013). The online managed realignment guide. http://www.abpmer.net/omreg/. Cited December 1, 2013.
  2. Adger, W. N., Agrawala, S., Mirza, M. M. Q., Conde, C., O’Brien, K. L., Pulhin, J., Pulwarty, R., Smit, B., & Takahashi, K. (2007). Assessment of adaptation practices, options, constraints and capacity. In M. L. Parry, O. F. Canziani, J. P. Palutikof, C. E. Hanson, & P. J. van der Linden (Eds.), Climate change 2007: Impacts, adaptation and vulnerability (Contribution of Working Group II to the Fourth Assessment Report of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change). Cambridge: Cambridge University Press.Google Scholar
  3. Adger, W. N., Lorenzoni, I., & O’Brien, K. L. (2009). Adapting to climate change – Thresholds, values, governance. Cambridge: Cambridge University Press.Google Scholar
  4. Agardy, T., Alder, J., Dayton, P., Curran, S., Kitchingman, A., Wilson, M., Catenazzi, A., Restrepo, J., Birkeland, C., Blaber, S., Saifullah, S., Branch, G., Boersma, D., Nixon, S., Dugan, P., Davidson, N., & Vörösmarty, C. (2005). Coastal systems. In Millenium ecosystem assessment: Ecosystems & human well-being (Current State and Trends, Vol. 1). Washington, DC: Island Press.Google Scholar
  5. Burgess, K., Orford, J., Dyer, K., Townend, I., & Balson, P. (2002). FUTURECOAST – The integration of knowledge to assess future coastal evolution at a national scale. Proceedings of the 28th International Conference on Coastal Engineering, World Scientific, 3, 3221–3233.Google Scholar
  6. Chang, S.-C., & Evans, G. (1992). Source of sediment and sediment transport on the east coast of England: Significant or coincidental phenomena? Marine Geology, 107, 283–288.CrossRefGoogle Scholar
  7. Clayton, K. M. (1989). Sediment input from the Norfolk cliffs, Eastern England – A century of coast protection and its effects. Journal of Coastal Research, 5, 433–442.Google Scholar
  8. Collins, M. B., Shimwell, S. J., Gao, S., Powell, H., Hewitson, C., & Taylor, J. A. (1995). Water and sediment movement in the vicinity of linear banks: The Norfolk Banks, southern North Sea. Marine Geology, 123, 125–142.CrossRefGoogle Scholar
  9. Crossland, C. J., Kremer, H. H., Lindeboom, H. J., Marshall Crossland, J. I., & Le Tissier, M. D. A. (2005). Coastal fluxes in the anthropocene. In The land-ocean interactions in the coastal zone project of the International Geosphere-Biosphere Programme (Global change – The IGBP series). Berlin: Springer.Google Scholar
  10. Dasgupta, S., Laplante, B., Meisner, C., Wheeler, D., & Yan, J. (2009). The impact of sea-level rise on developing countries: A comparative analysis. Climatic Change, 93, 379–388.CrossRefGoogle Scholar
  11. Dawson, R. J. (2007). Re-engineering cities: A framework for adaptation to global change. Philosophical Transactions of the Royal Society A, 365(1861), 3085–3098.CrossRefGoogle Scholar
  12. Dawson, R. J., Dickson, M., Nicholls, R. J., Hall, J., Walkden, M. J. A., Stansby, P. K., Mokrech, M., Richards, J., Zhou, J., Milligan, J., Jordan, A., Pearson, S., Rees, J., Bates, P. D., Koukoulas, S., & Watkinson, A. (2009). Integrated analysis of risks of coastal flooding and cliff erosion under scenarios of long-term change. Climatic Change, 95, 249–288.CrossRefGoogle Scholar
  13. DEFRA. (2010). Adapting to coastal change: Developing a policy framework. London: DEFRA. http://archive.defra.gov.uk/environment/flooding/documents/manage/coastalchange-policyframework.pdf. Cited December 19, 2013.
  14. DEFRA. (2011). Shoreline management plans: Guidance. London: Department for Environment, Food and Rural Affairs. https://www.gov.uk/government/publications/shoreline-management-plans-guidance. Cited December 19, 2013.
  15. DTI. (2002). Foresight futures 2020: Revised scenarios and guidance. London: Department of Trade and Industry.Google Scholar
  16. East Anglian Coastal Group. (2012). Kelling to Lowestoft Ness Shoreline Management Plan (SMP6). East Anglian Coastal Group. http://www.eacg.org.uk/smp6.asp. Cited December 19, 2013.
  17. Ford, J. D., Berrang-Ford, L., Lesnikowski, A., Barrera, M., & Heymann, S. J. (2013). How to track adaptation to climate change: A typology of approaches for national-level application. Ecology and Society, 18(3), 40. http://dx.doi.org/10.5751/ES-05732-180340.
  18. Foresight. (2011). Migration and global environmental change (Final project report). London: The Government Office for Science.Google Scholar
  19. Grieve, H. (1959). The great tide. Chelmsford: County Council of Essex.Google Scholar
  20. Haigh, I., Nicholls, R. J., & Wells, N. (2009). Mean sea level trends around the English Channel over the 20th century and their wider context. Continental Shelf Research, 29(17), 2083–2098.CrossRefGoogle Scholar
  21. Hall, J. W., Dawson, R. J., Sayers, P. B., Rosu, C., Chatterton, J. B., & Deakin, R. (2003). A methodology for national-scale flood risk assessment. Proceedings of the ICE – Water and Maritime Engineering, 156(3), 235–247.CrossRefGoogle Scholar
  22. Hall, J. W., Sayers, P. B., & Dawson, R. J. (2005). National-scale assessment of current and future flood risk in England and Wales. Natural Hazards, 36, 147–164. doi: 10.1007/s11069-004-4546-7.CrossRefGoogle Scholar
  23. Hall, J. W., Dawson, R. J., Walsh, C. L., Barker, T., Barr, S. L., Batty, M., Bristow, A. L., Burton, A., Carney, S., Dagoumas, A., Evans, S., Ford, A. C., Glenis, V., Goodess, C. G., Harpham, C., Harwatt, H., Kilsby, C. G., Kohler, J., Jones, P., Manning, L., McCarthy, M., Sanderson, M., Tight, M. R., Timms, P. M., & Zanni, A. (2009). Engineering cities: How can cities grow whilst reducing emissions and vulnerability? Norwich: The Tyndall Centre for Climate Change Research.Google Scholar
  24. Harland, M. G., & Harland, H. J. (1980). The flooding of Eastern England. Peterborough: Minimax Books.Google Scholar
  25. Hay, J. E. (2009). Institutional and policy analysis of disaster risk reduction and climate change adaptation in Pacific Island Countries. Suva: United Nations International System for Disaster Reduction (UNISDR) and the United Nations Development Programme (UNDP). http://www.unisdr.org/we/inform/publications/18869. Cited December 19, 2013.
  26. Holman, I. P., Rounsevell, M. D. A., Shackley, S., Harrison, P. A., Nicholls, R. J., Berry, P. M., & Audsley, E. (2005). A regional, multi-sectoral and integrated assessment of the impacts of climate and socio-economic change in the UK: I Methodology. Climatic Change, 71, 9–41.CrossRefGoogle Scholar
  27. Horrillo-Caraballo, J. M., & Reeve, D. E. (2008). Morphodynamic behaviour of a nearshore sandbank system: The Great Yarmouth Sandbanks, U.K. Marine Geology, 254(1–2), 91–106.CrossRefGoogle Scholar
  28. Hulme, M., Jenkins, G. J., Lu, X., Turnpenny, J. R., Mitchell, T. D., Jones, R. G., Lowe, J., Murphy, J. M., Hassell, D., Boorman, P., McDonald, R., & Hill, S. (2002). Climate change scenarios for the United Kingdom: The UKCIP02 scientific report. Norwich: Tyndall Centre for Climate Change Research.Google Scholar
  29. Humby, P. (2013). A profile of deprivation in larger English seaside destinations, 2007 and 2010. London: Office for National Statistics.Google Scholar
  30. Huthnance, J. M. (1982). On one mechanism forming linear sandbanks. Estuarine, Coastal and Shelf Science, 14, 79–99.CrossRefGoogle Scholar
  31. Jenkins, G. J., Murphy, J. M., Sexton, D. S., Lowe, J. A., Jones, P., & Kilsby, C. G. (2009). UK Climate Projections: Briefing report. Exeter: Met Office Hadley Centre.Google Scholar
  32. Kates, R. W., Travis, W. R., & Wilbanks, T. J. (2012). Transformational adaptation when incremental adaptations to climate change are insufficient. Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences, 109, 7156–7161.CrossRefGoogle Scholar
  33. Kelly, R. A., Jakeman, A. J., Barreteau, O., Borsuk, M. E., ElSawah, S., Hamilton, S. H., Henriksen, H. J., Kuikka, S., Maier, H. R., Rizzoli, A. E., van Delden, H., & Voinov, A. A. (2013). Selecting among five common modelling approaches for integrated environmental assessment and management. Environmental Modelling & Software, 47, 159–181.CrossRefGoogle Scholar
  34. Kelman, I. (2009). 1953 storm surge deaths: U.K. Version 5. http://www.ilankelman.org/disasterdeaths/1953DeathsUK.doc. Cited December 19, 2013.
  35. Klein, R. J. T., Nicholls, R. J., Ragoonaden, S., Capobianco, M., Aston, J., & Buckley, E. N. (2001). Technological options for adaptation to climate change in coastal zones. Journal of Coastal Research, 17(3), 531–543.Google Scholar
  36. Kuang, C. P., & Stansby, P. K. (2004). Efficient modelling for directional random wave propagation inshore. Proceedings of the ICE – Maritime Engineering, 157(3), 123–131. doi: 10.1680/maen.2004.157.3.123.CrossRefGoogle Scholar
  37. Leafe, R., Pethick, J., & Townend, I. (1998). Realising the benefits of shoreline management. The Geographical Journal, 164, 282–290.CrossRefGoogle Scholar
  38. Leake, J., Wolf, J., Lowe, J., Hall, J., & Nicholls, R. (2008). Response of marine climate to future climate change: Application to coastal regions. Proceedings of ICCE 2008, Hamburg.Google Scholar
  39. Lichter, M., Vafeidis, A. T., Nicholls, R. J., & Kaiser, G. (2011). Exploring data-related uncertainties in the analyses of land area and population in the “Low-Elevation Coastal Zone” (LECZ). Journal of Coastal Research, 27(4), 757–768.CrossRefGoogle Scholar
  40. Linham, M. M., & Nicholls, R. J. (2010). Technologies for climate change adaptation: Coastal erosion and flooding (TNA guidebook series). Roskilde: UNEP Risø Centre on Energy, Climate and Sustainable Development.Google Scholar
  41. Lowe, J. A., & Gregory, J. M. (2005). The effects of climate change on storm surges around the United Kingdom. Philosophical Transactions of the Royal Society A – Mathematical Physical and Engineering Sciences, 363(1831), 1313–1328.CrossRefGoogle Scholar
  42. Lowe, J. A., Howard, T., Pardaens, A., Tinker, J., Jenkins, G., Ridley, J., Leake, J., Holt, J., Wakelin, S., Wolf, J., Horsburgh, K., Reeder, T., Milne, G., Bradley, S., & Dye, S. (2009). UK Climate Projections science report: Marine and coastal projections. London: DEFRA.Google Scholar
  43. Lumbroso, D. M., & Vinet, F. (2011). A comparison of the causes, effects and aftermaths of the coastal flooding of England in 1953 and France in 2010. Natural Hazards and Earth System Sciences, 11, 2321–2333.CrossRefGoogle Scholar
  44. McRobie, A., Spencer, T., & Gerritsen, H. (2005). The big flood: North Sea storm surge. Philosophical Transactions of the Royal Society A, 363, 1261–1491.CrossRefGoogle Scholar
  45. Milligan, J., O’Riordan, T., Nicholson-Cole, S. A., & Watkinson, A. R. (2009). Nature conservation for sustainable shorelines: Lessons from seeking to involve the public. Land Use Policy, 26(2), 203–213.CrossRefGoogle Scholar
  46. Misdorp, R. (2011). Climate of coastal cooperation. Leiden: European Coastal and Marine Union.Google Scholar
  47. Mokrech, M., Hanson, S., Nicholls, R. J., Wolf, J., Walkden, M., Fontaine, C. M., Nicholson-Cole, S., Jude, S. R., Leake, J., Stansby, P., Watkinson, A. R., Rounsevell, M. D. A., Lowe, J. A., & Hall, J. W. (2011). The Tyndall coastal simulator. Journal of Coastal Conservation, 15(3), 325–355. doi: 10.1007/s11852-009-0083-6.CrossRefGoogle Scholar
  48. Mosby, J. E. G. (1939). The Horsey flood, 1938: An example of storm effect on a low coast. The Geographical Journal, 93, 413–418.CrossRefGoogle Scholar
  49. Moser, S. C., Williams, S. J., & Boesch, D. F. (2012). Wicked challenges at land’s end: Managing coastal vulnerability under climate change. Annual Review of Environment and Resources, 37, 51–78. doi: 10.1146/annurev-environ-021611-135158.CrossRefGoogle Scholar
  50. Motyka, J. M., & Brampton, A. H. (1993). Coastal management: Mapping of littoral cells (HR Wallingford report SR328). Wallingford: HR Wallingford.Google Scholar
  51. Nakićenović, N., & Swart, R. (2000). Emissions scenarios (Special report of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change). Cambridge: Cambridge University Press.Google Scholar
  52. Nicholls, R. J., Wong, P. P., Burkett, V. R., Codignotto, J. O., Hay, J. E., McLean, R. F., Ragoonaden, S., & Woodroffe, C. D. (2007). Coastal systems and low-lying areas. In M. L. Parry, O. F. Canziani, J. P. Palutikof, P. J. van der Linden, & C. E. Hanson (Eds.), Climate change 2007: Impacts, adaptation and vulnerability (Contribution of Working Group II to the Fourth Assessment Report of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change, pp. 315–356). Cambridge: Cambridge University Press.Google Scholar
  53. Nicholls, R. J., Hanson, S., Herweijer, C., Patmore, N., Hallegatte, S., Corfee-Morlot, J., Château, J., & Muir-Wood, R. (2008a). Ranking port cities with high exposure and vulnerability to climate extremes: Exposure estimates (Environment Directorate Working Papers, (ENV/WKP(2007)1), 62 pp). Paris: Organisation for Economic and Co-operative development (OECD).Google Scholar
  54. Nicholls, R. J., Wong, P. P., Burkett, V. R., Woodroffe, C. D., & Hay, J. E. (2008b). Climate change and coastal vulnerability assessment: Scenarios for integrated assessment. Sustainability Science, 3(1), 89–102.CrossRefGoogle Scholar
  55. Nicholls, R. J., Woodroffe, C. D., Burkett, V., Hay, J., Wong, P. P., & Nurse, L. (2012). Scenarios for coastal vulnerability assessment. In E. Wolanski & D. S. McLusky (Eds.), Treatise on estuarine and coastal science (Vol. 12, pp. 289–303). Waltham: Academic Press.Google Scholar
  56. Nicholls, R. J., Townend, I. H., Bradbury, A., Ramsbottom, D., & Day, S. (2013). Planning for long-term coastal change: Experiences from England and Wales. Ocean Engineering, 71, 3–16. doi: 10.1016/j.oceaneng.2013.01.025.CrossRefGoogle Scholar
  57. Park, H. B., & Vincent, C. E. (2007). Evolution of Scroby Sands in the East Anglian coast, UK. Journal of Coastal Research, SI50, 868–873.Google Scholar
  58. Penning-Rowsell, E., Haigh, N., Lavery, S., & McFadden, L. (2013). A threatened world city: The benefits of protecting London from the sea. Natural Hazards, 66, 1383–1404.CrossRefGoogle Scholar
  59. Ranger, N., Reeder, T., & Lowe, J. A. (2013). Addressing ‘deep’ uncertainty over long-term climate in major infrastructure projects: Four innovations of the Thames Estuary 2100 project. EURO Journal on Decision Processes, 1, 233–262.CrossRefGoogle Scholar
  60. Reeve, D. E., Li, B., & Thurston, N. (2001). Eigenfunction analysis of decadal fluctuations in sandbank morphology. Journal of Coastal Research, 17(2), 371–382.Google Scholar
  61. Rounsevell, M. D. A., & Metzger, M. J. (2010). Developing qualitative scenario storylines for environmental change assessment. Wiley Interdisciplinary Reviews: Climate Change, 1, 606–619.Google Scholar
  62. Sheppard, T. (1912). The lost towns of the Yorkshire coast. London: A. Brown & Sons.Google Scholar
  63. Steers, J. A. (1953). The east coast floods. The Geographical Journal, 119, 280–298.CrossRefGoogle Scholar
  64. Steers, J. A., Bayliss-Smith, T. P., Stoddart, D. R., Spencer, T., & Durbridge, P. M. (1979). The storm surge of 11 January 1978 on the east coast of England. The Geographical Journal, 145(2), 192–205.CrossRefGoogle Scholar
  65. Thomalla, F., & Vincent, C. E. (2003). Beach response to shore-parallel breakwaters at Sea Palling, Norfolk, UK. Estuarine, Coastal and Shelf Science, 56(2), 203–212.CrossRefGoogle Scholar
  66. Thorne, C. R., Evans, E. P., & Penning-Rowsell, E. (2007). Future flooding and coastal erosion risks. London: Thomas Telford.CrossRefGoogle Scholar
  67. UN Habitat. (2008). State of the world’s cities 2008/2009: Harmonious cities. London: Earthscan.Google Scholar
  68. Valiela, I. (2006). Global coastal change. Oxford: Blackwell.Google Scholar
  69. Van Koningsveld, J. P., Mulder, M., Stive, M. J. F., van der Valk, L., & van der Weck, A. W. (2008). Living with sea-level rise and climate change: A case study of the Netherlands. Journal of Coastal Research, 24(2), 367–379.CrossRefGoogle Scholar
  70. Vincent, C. E. (1979). Longshore sand transport rates – A simple model for the East Anglian coastline. Coastal Engineering, 3, 113–136.CrossRefGoogle Scholar
  71. Walsh, C. L., Dawson, R. J., Hall, J. W., Barr, S. L., Batty, M., Bristow, A. L., Carney, S., Dagoumas, A., Ford, A., Tight, M. R., Watters, H., & Zanni, A. M. (2011). Assessment of climate change mitigation and adaptation in cities. Proceedings of the ICE – Urban design and planning, Special issue on Urban Development and Sustainability, 164(DP2), 75–84. doi: 10.1680/udap.2011.164.2.75.
  72. Warren, R., de la Nava, S. S., Arnell, N. W., Bane, M., Barker, T., Barton, C., Ford, R., Füssel, H. M., Hankin, R. K. S., Klein, R., Linstead, C., Kohler, J., Mitchell, T. D., Osborn, T. J., Pan, H., Raper, S. C. B., Riley, G., Schellnhüber, H. J., Winne, S., & Anderson, D. (2008). Development and illustrative outputs of the Community Integrated Assessment System (CIAS), a multi-institutional modular integrated assessment approach for modelling climate change. Environmental Modelling & Software, 23, 592–610.CrossRefGoogle Scholar
  73. Westphal, M. L., Hughes, G. A., & Brömmelhörster, J. (Eds.). (2013). Economics of climate change in East Asia. Mandaluyong City: Asian Development Bank.Google Scholar
  74. Wolf, J., & Flather, R. A. (2005). Modelling waves and surges during the 1953 storm. Philosophical Transactions of the Royal Society of London A, 363(1831), 1359–1375.CrossRefGoogle Scholar
  75. Wong, P. P., Losada, I. J., Gattuso, J., Hinkel, J., Khattabi, A., McInnes, K. L., Saito, A., & Sallenger, A. (2014). Coastal systems and low-lying areas. In C. B. Field, V. R. Barros, D. J. Dokken, K. J. Mach, M. D. Mastrandrea, T. E. Bilir, M. Chatterjee, K. L. Ebi, Y. O. Estrada, R. C. Genova, B. Girma, E. S. Kissel, A. N. Levy, S. MacCracken, P. R. Mastrandrea, & L. L. White (Eds.), Climate change 2014: Impacts, adaptation, and vulnerability (Part A: Global and Sectoral Aspects. Contribution of Working Group II to the Fifth Assessment Report of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change, pp. 361–409). Cambridge/New York: Cambridge University Press.Google Scholar
  76. World Bank. (2010). Climate risks and adaptation in Asian coastal megacities: A synthesis report. Washington, DC: World Bank Group.Google Scholar

Copyright information

© Springer Science+Business Media Dordrecht 2015

Authors and Affiliations

  • Richard J. Dawson
    • 1
  • Robert J. Nicholls
    • 2
  • Sophie A. Day (née Nicholson-Cole)
    • 2
  1. 1.School of Civil Engineering and Geosciences, Tyndall Centre for Climate Change ResearchNewcastle UniversityNewcastle upon TyneUK
  2. 2.Tyndall Centre for Climate Change Research, Faculty of Engineering and the EnvironmentUniversity of SouthamptonSouthamptonUK

Personalised recommendations