Abstract
Over the past couple of decades a number of papers have been published that provide estimates of United States population living in coastal areas. These estimates vary widely; ranging from less than 5%, to more than 50% of the U.S. population living in coastal areas. The reason for the wide range in estimates is that there are a variety of criteria that can be combined in a number of permutations to define “coastal areas.” For example, coastal areas may be defined based on probability of coastal flooding, inundation caused by future changes in sea levels, or simply by proximity to the coastline itself. In addition, spatial buffers, such as geopolitical units (e.g., counties and census block groups), or prescribed distances (e.g., 50- or 100-mile distance buffers), can also be used to provide a measure of uncertainty associated with economic exposure, or with measurement error. Other types and categories of defining criteria can be used to further characterize coastal areas. In this chapter we focused our attention on estimating U.S. population at risk from the 1% annual chance coastal flood. The 1% annual chance flood (both coastal and riverine) is used by FEMA in the administration of the National Flood Insurance Program (NFIP). The methods used in this analysis followed those of Crowell et al. (J Coast Res 26:201–211, 2010) who used a three-step process to determine coastal population: (1) create a national digital flood hazard database using FEMA (or FEMA-derived) datasets; (2) use a systematic method to separate coastal from riverine flood hazard areas; and (3) combine 2010 census block group data (assuming uniform population distribution) with the digital coastal flood hazard database using a geographic information system. The results of this analysis indicate that approximately 2.8% of the U.S. population lives in areas directly subject to 1% chance coastal flood. In addition, a total of 395 counties were found to be contiguous with the ocean or Great Lakes coast and/or have at least some coastal flood hazard areas (as based on the 1% annual chance coastal flood) located within their boundaries. About 39% of the U.S. population lives in these “coastal” counties.
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Notes
- 1.
According to NOAA (NOAA 2012a), “The coastal watershed is composed of all lands within Estuarine Drainage Areas (EDAs) or Coastal Drainage Areas (CDAs) in NOAA’s Coastal Assessment Framework.” A coastal cataloging unit is defined by NOAA as “a drainage basin that falls entirely within or straddles an EDA or CDA. Typically, most EDAs or CDAs are composed of several complete cataloging units (drainage basins)”.
- 2.
This information was originally accessed from the U.S. Census Bureau on June 29, 2009, but unfortunately, is no longer available. We include this summary because it appears to be the basis for a number of citations in publications that state that more than 50% of the U.S. population lives within 50 miles of the coast.
- 3.
AE and VE Zones refer to flood zones in which base flood elevations have been computed (as opposed to A or V Zones in which base flood elevations have not been computed). Hereinafter, for the sake of simplicity, these zones will be referred to as “A” and “V.”
- 4.
FIRMs may be republished for a variety of reasons, including updated flood hazard analysis, updated topography, changes to vertical datum, or paper to digital map transition. It is important to note that a newly published FIRM does not necessarily indicate that an updated storm surge analysis was performed. Most effective coastal FIRMs are based on storm surge analyses performed in the 1980s, although these FIRMs almost always incorporate revisions that reflect more current wave height analyses and topography. Recently, FEMA committed to updating coastal flood hazard (including storm surge) analysis for most of the nation’s populated shoreline. As of the date of publication, these studies are underway.
- 5.
Census block groups generally contain 600–3,000 people (U.S. Census, March 8, 2012)
- 6.
The CoreLogic dataset also includes the latest effective digital FIRM datasets.
- 7.
New Flood Insurance Studies now include the statistical delineation between riverine and coastal flooding sources.
- 8.
8,651,000 people when including territories.
- 9.
There is also no universally accepted definition of “shoreline.” The spatial and temporal variability of the boundary and its dynamic nature result in a variety of features or “indicators” that are used to represent shoreline location. See Boak and Turner (2005) for a comprehensive discussion.
- 10.
Culliton (1998) incorporates population counts from 83 Great Lakes counties. In fact, 89% of Michigan’s counties and associated population statistics are included in the Culliton dataset.
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Acknowledgements
The authors would like to thank the following people for their review and comment on this chapter: Darryl Hatheway, Paul Rooney, Erin Walsh, and Theresa Goedeke.
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Crowell, M., Westcott, J., Phelps, S., Mahoney, T., Coulton, K., Bellomo, D. (2013). Estimating the United States Population at Risk from Coastal Flood-Related Hazards. In: Finkl, C. (eds) Coastal Hazards. Coastal Research Library, vol 1000. Springer, Dordrecht. https://doi.org/10.1007/978-94-007-5234-4_6
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