Abstract
Fossil fuels account for more than three-quarters of global energy consumption with another 10 % or more coming from renewable and waste sources that emit carbon dioxide. Energy consumption is projected to grow by some 50 % in the next quarter century, with the majority of this coming from sources that emit CO2. While renewable sources of energy will play a greater role in the future, economic development will necessarily continue to rely on abundant and cheap fossil fuels, particularly coal and natural gas. In an era where climate change dominates the energy agenda, the prospects for expanding the use of CO2-emitting sources of energy (oil, coal, natural gas) and relying more on hydroelectric, solar, wind, geothermal, biomass and nuclear sources are examined. Economic policies in many jurisdictions use a combination of mandates and subsidies to reduce overall reliance on fossil fuels and/or promote generation of electricity from renewable sources. Lessons from biofuel programs, and an economic analysis of feed-in tariffs for electricity, indicate that they are not only expensive but generally ineffective. Despite the setback caused by the near meltdown of the Fukushima nuclear power plant, it is argued that nuclear energy is a safe alternative to many other forms of energy, and that, given the rebound effect associated with conservation and physical limits to the use of renewable energy, a natural gas-to-nuclear scenario might not be unrealistic future course of action.
The evidence was the leaked e-mails of the University of East Anglia’s Climate Research Unit (CRU), which are now subject to several official investigations, forcing the head of the CRU to step aside. The e-mails tell a lurid tale of unbecoming, unwarranted, organized and fierce hostility to skeptical climatic researchers, as well as data tampering, anti-scientific secrecy, manipulations of scientific journals, and distortions of peer review that make George Orwell look like a prophet. This could be dismissed as an isolated case if the CRU were some marginal backwater. But what was produced there was central to the scientific case, such as it was, mounted by the United Nations’ Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change. – Christopher Essex, Toronto Sun, February 22, 2010.
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Notes
- 1.
Regarding Mars, Obama is quoted by the BBC (April 15, 2010) as saying: “By the mid-2030s, I believe we can send humans to orbit Mars and return them safely to Earth. And a landing on Mars will follow. And I expect to be around to see it” (http://news.bbc.co.uk/2/hi/8623691.stm, viewed April 21, 2010). Regarding Obama’s desire to make the U.S. a leader in tackling climate change, thereby creating new technologies and jobs, see “Energy and Environment,” White House, posted April 11, 2010 (http://www.whitehouse.gov/issues/energy-and-environment, viewed April 21, 2010).
- 2.
See http://www.darpa.mil/. “DARPA defines its mission as preventing technological surprise for the United States and to create technological surprise for adversaries” (DARPA: developing the wild, the wacky and wicked cool for 50 years, by M. Cooney at http://www.networkworld.com/community/node/24814, viewed April 20, 2010).
- 3.
Nowak (2010) provides an entertaining but compelling argument that technological advances are the result of large-scale, government-sponsored research efforts (often related to the military), followed by adaptations by private-sector companies to make them marketable. These companies often participated in the original research and receive their primary benefits from developing applications for non-military, final consumers.
- 4.
A watt (W) equals 1 joule (J) per second. A kilowatt (kW) equals 1,000 W; megawatt (MW) = 106 W; gigawatt (GW) = 109 W; terawatt (TW) = 1012 W; petawatt (PW) = 1015 W. Kilo is abbreviated with k and equals 103; Mega (M, 106); Giga (G, 109); Tera (T, 1012).
- 5.
This includes wastes from sawmilling and pulping, wood burned in stoves of subsistence farmers in developing countries, and wastes used for space heating and cooking.
- 6.
Deep-water drilling will continue despite the massive oil spill resulting from the British Petroleum disaster in the Gulf of Mexico in 2010. If drilling is prevented in the U.S., this does not mean it will not be pursued by other countries. For example, Exxon has been prevented from exploiting deep water oil deposits in the Gulf and reserves off the northern coast of Alaska, but in late summer 2011 it reached an agreement with Russia to lend its technology to the exploitation of oil deposits off the northern shores of Siberia. American firms are involved in deep-sea drilling off the coast of Brazil. In Alberta, environmental concerns related to the oil sands development are increasingly addressed by new investments in technology and methods for restoring the environment. As the price of oil rises, willingness to incur costs to prevent environmental damage increase.
- 7.
- 8.
In Fig. 10.4, prices are from the U.S. Energy Information Administration (EIA), various tables viewed September 16, 2011. Nominal prices are deflated using the U.S. CPI and measures are converted to a per MWh basis from barrels (oil), cubic feet (natural gas) and short tons (coal) using conversion factors also available on the EIA website.
- 9.
Results reported by Don Roberts, CIBC, in presentations given in early 2010.
- 10.
See The Economist, September 4, 2010, pp. 53–54.
- 11.
Information based on an editorial in The Washington Times, April 27, 2010, entitled “Meltdown of the climate-change bill.” Senator Graham subsequently dropped his sponsorship of the bill.
- 12.
Information in this paragraph is from (viewed September 16, 2011): http://www.ieso.ca/imoweb/siteShared/monthly_update.asp?sid=ic.
- 13.
See http://www.upi.com/Science_News/Resource-Wars/2010/10/05/Solar-boom-drives-up-German-power-price/UPI-74351286299555/ (viewed 11 October 2010).
- 14.
See http://www.earthtimes.org/articles/news/363164,producers-agree-subsidy-cuts.html (viewed March 15, 2011).
- 15.
- 16.
A graduate student associated with the Institute for Integrated Energy Systems at the University of Victoria told the author that, after working with other engineers on measuring the success of CO2 storage, it appeared they could not track the eventual destination of CO2, except for that which actually enhanced oil recovery. There was no guarantee in other words that CO2 did not leak out of the underground formation at some unknown location.
- 17.
1 atm = 14.696 psi = 101,325 Pascal (Pa), where 1 Pa = 1 kg/m/s2 = 1 kg/m2. Note that CO2 reaches a supercritical stage (where it becomes liquid) at about 70 Pa (measured at 31 °C), but to get it there would take a great deal of energy.
- 18.
Chemicals constitute about 1% of the volume of water. There remains some concern that chemicals could enter the water supply, but this is unlikely because wells are significantly deeper than the porous layers from which water may be taken.
- 19.
See http://www.atomicarchive.com/Reports/Japan/Accidents.shtml (viewed March 15, 2011).
- 20.
These costs are significantly higher than those reported in the earlier MIT study (Ansolabehere et al. 2003), but are probably higher than they would be today given that construction costs have declined since the financial crisis. This needs to be taken into account in the following discussion as well.
- 21.
These can be compared with other estimates, such as those in Table 10.5.
- 22.
It should be noted that the mortality figures are crude estimates, with the difference between the two estimates attributed to high estimated rates of mortality assumed to be associated with global warming (but see Chap. 7).
- 23.
An example was the Government of Canada’s effort in 2002–2004 to meet part of its commitment to reduce CO2 emissions through voluntary action. The government assumed each citizen would reduce emissions by 1 t (‘one-ton challenge’ advertising campaign), thereby reducing emissions by 30 Mt annually (or almost one-quarter of the total needed to achieve the Kyoto target). The program failed miserably because citizens had no incentive to reduce emissions and often had no idea how personally they could achieve the objective.
- 24.
Jenkins et al. (2011) provide a literature review and summary of numerous published and unpublished studies of rebound and backfire effects. They find that empirical research into this phenomenon is only now emerging, and that, “as efforts to analyze rebound effects expand in scope and complexity, … the scale of rebound observed generally becomes larger and larger” (p. 25).
- 25.
As viewed August 20, 2009: http://www.ecolo.org/media/articles/articles.in.english/love-indep-24-05-04.htm. There is a network of environmentalists favoring nuclear energy; see http://www.ecolo.org/ (viewed August 20, 2009).
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van Kooten, G.C. (2013). Economic Growth, Energy and Climate Change. In: Climate Change, Climate Science and Economics. Springer, Dordrecht. https://doi.org/10.1007/978-94-007-4988-7_10
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