Abstract
The Drake equation is used for calculating the probability of life occurring on another planet elsewhere in the universe, even of intelligent life forms with which we might be able to communicate. The parameters used in this equation are mainly astronomical, omitting the biological parameters necessary for estimating the probability of life developing extraterrestrially. Extraterrestrial life depends on a multitude of factors interacting, both in the right combination and in the right sequence, interactions changing over evolutionary time. The chance of occurrence of the right combinations over billions of years is immensely small, too small to be realized in practice. A certain degree of interdependency between these factors would increase this chance, but not enough to make it approach the chance of occurrence of a habitable planet. It seems that our search for extraterrestrial life is in vain.
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Acknowledgments
My wife, Claire Hengeveld-Nicolls, corrected and improved both the English and the logic of this chapter. 15. Addendum After having finished writing this article, I did find an article by Drake (1974) explaining his equation.
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Hengeveld, R. (2012). The Likelihood of Extraterrestrial Intelligent Life. In: Hanslmeier, A., Kempe, S., Seckbach, J. (eds) Life on Earth and other Planetary Bodies. Cellular Origin, Life in Extreme Habitats and Astrobiology, vol 24. Springer, Dordrecht. https://doi.org/10.1007/978-94-007-4966-5_24
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