Abstract
This chapter is concerned with understanding why urban structures arise, persist and change, with a specific focus on long term neighbourhood change. It is argued that typically, neighbourhoods exhibit persistence in social structures over very long periods of time. Relative spatial patterns of wealth and poverty within cities can remain broadly unchanged for decades if not centuries. Analysing long term neighbourhood change is challenging as long term time series are not easily available. The chapter starts with a discussion of initial urban population distributions and argues that geography and geology are crucial in understanding these early distributions. Once initial social patterns become established, they become locked in by the history of development. Path dependence in the development of neighbourhoods may arise not only from the underlying geology, but also because of the longevity of the housing stock, which creates a ‘spatial lock-in’. Next, the chapter deals with the questions whether spatial structures persist over time and the extent to which structures change in response to external shocks. The authors conclude that these shocks occur irregularly and have to be very substantial to have any lasting impact.
This is a preview of subscription content, log in via an institution to check access.
Access this chapter
Tax calculation will be finalised at checkout
Purchases are for personal use only
Notes
- 1.
The valley was still experiencing heavy flooding in 2010.
- 2.
The precise percentage is unimportant. Fully integrated communities might imply 50%.
- 3.
A dipper was responsible for glazing in the pottery trade.
- 4.
However, Orford et al. (2002), comparing data on social status from the 1991 Census and from the Booth maps highlight the stability of spatial poverty patterns over the last 100 years, although they find a degree of convergence over that period.
References
Barro, R. (1991). Economic growth in a cross-section of countries. Quarterly Journal of Economics, 106(2), 407–443.
Barro, R., & Sala-i-Martin, X. (1991). Convergence Across States and Regions. Brookings Papers on Economic Activity, 22(1), 107–182.
Barro, R., & Sala-i-Martin, X. (1992). Convergence. Journal of Political Economy, 100(2), 223–251.
Blume, L. E., & Durlauf, S. N. (2001). The interactions-based approach to socioeconomic behaviour. In S. Durlauf & H. P. Young (Eds.), Social dynamics (pp. 15–44). Cambridge: The MIT Press.
Bosker, M., Brakman, S., Garretsen, H., & Schramm, M. (2007). Looking for multiple equilibria when geography matters: German city growth and the WWII shock. Journal of Urban Economics, 61, 152–169.
Bossomaier, T., Amri, S., & Thompson, J. (2007). Agent-based modelling of house price evolution. Proceedings of the 2007 IEEE Symposium on Artificial Life, http://researchoutput.csu.edu.au/R/?func=dbin-jump-full&object_id=3301&local_base=GEN01-CSU01
Briggs, A. (1963). Victorian cities. London: Penguin Books.
Brueckner, J., Thisse, J.-F., & Zenou, Y. (1999). Why is Central Paris rich and Downtown Detroit poor? An amenity-based theory. European Economic Review, 43(1), 91–107.
Davis, D. R., & Weinstein, D. E. (2002). Bones, bombs, and break points: The geography of economic activity. American Economic Review, 92(5), 1269–1289.
Davis, D. R., & Weinstein, D. E. (2008). In search for multiple equilibria in urban industrial structure. Journal of Regional Science, 48(1), 29–65.
Davison, G. (2005). The rise and fall of marvellous Melbourne. Melbourne: Melbourne University Publishing.
Dorling, D., Rigby, J., Wheeler, B., Ballas, D., Thomas, B., Fahmy, E., Gordon, D., & Lupton, R. (2007). Poverty, wealth and place in Britain, 1968 to 2005. Bristol: Policy Press.
Durlauf, S. N. (1997). Statistical mechanics approaches to socioeconomic behavior. In W. B. Arthur, S. N. Durlauf, & D. Lane (Eds.), The economy as an evolving complex system II (pp. 81–104). Reading: Addison-Wesley.
Durlauf, S. N. (2006). Groups, social influences, and inequality. In S. Bowles, S. N. Durlauf, & K. Hoff (Eds.), Poverty traps (pp. 141–175). Princeton: Princeton University Press.
Galster, G. C. (2002). An economic efficiency analysis of deconcentrating poverty populations. Journal of Housing Economics, 11(4), 303–329.
Galster, G. C., & Zobel, A. (1998). Will dispersed housing programmes reduce social problems in the US? Housing Studies, 13(5), 605–622.
Galster, G. C., Quercia, R. G., & Cortes, A. (2000). Identifying neighbourhood thresholds: An empirical investigation. Housing Policy Debate, 11(3), 701–732.
Gilbert, N., Hawksworth, J. C., & Swinney, P. A. (2009). An agent-based model of the English housing market. Association for the Advancement of Artificial Intelligence, http://www.aaai.org/Papers/Symposia/Spring/2009/SS-09-09/SS09-09-007.pdf
Glaeser, E. L. (2005a). Urban colossus: Why is New York America’s largest city? FRBNY Economic Policy Review, 12, 7–24.
Glaeser, E. L. (2005b). Reinventing Boston 1630–2003. Journal of Economic Geography, 5(2), 119–153.
Glaeser, E. L., & Gyourko, J. (2005). Urban decline and durable housing. Journal of Political Economy, 113(2), 345–375.
Glaeser, E. L., Sacredote, B., & Scheinkman, J. A. (1996). Crime and social interactions. Quarterly Journal of Economics, 111(2), 507–548.
Gregory, I., Southall, H., & Mooney, G. (2009). London’s rivers in the late 19th century. ESRI Shapefile, Edina ShareGeo Open.
Krugman, P. (1996). The self-organizing economy. Oxford: Blackwell.
London Topological Society. (2005). The London County Council bomb damage maps 1939–1945 (LTS Publication No. 164). London Topological Society and London Metropolitan Archives.
Meen, G. P. (2009). Modelling local spatial poverty traps in England. Housing Studies, 24(1), 127–147.
Meen, D., & Meen, G. (2003). Social behaviour as a basis for modelling the urban housing market: A review. Urban Studies, 40(5–6), 917–935.
Meen, G., & Nygaard, C. (2010). Slum clearances and long-run urban change: The case of London 1881–2001. University of Reading, Department of Economics, Working Paper.
Meen, G., & Nygaard, C. (2011). Local housing supply and the impact of history and geography. Urban Studies, 48(14), 3107–3124.
Meen, G., Gibb, K., Goody, J., & McGrath, T. (2005). Economic segregation in England. York: The Policy Press.
Meen, G., Meen, J., & Nygaard, C. (2007). A tale of two Victorian cities in the 21st century. PRRES Conference Paper, Perth.
Miguel, E., & Roland, G. (2011). The long-run impact of bombing Vietnam. Journal of Development Economics, 96(1), 1–15.
Mooney, G., Southall, H., & Gregory, I. (2009). London’s roads in the late 19th century. ESRI Shapefile, Edina ShareGeo Open.
Neuburg, V. (1985). London labour and London poor, selections from the writings of Henry Mayhew. London: Penguin.
North, D. C. (2005). Understanding the process of economic change. Princeton: Princeton University Press.
Orford, S., Dorling, D., Mitchell, R., Shaw, M., & Davey-Smith, G. (2002). Life and death of the people of London: A historical GIS of Charles Booth’s inquiry. Health & Place, 8(1), 25–35.
Quercia, R. G., & Galster, G. C. (1997). Threshold effects and the expected benefits of attracting middle-income households to the central city. Housing Policy Debate, 8(2), 409–435.
Ravenstein, E. G. (1885). The laws of migration. Journal of the Royal Statistical Society of London, 48(2), 167–235.
Schelling, T. (1971). Dynamic models of segregation. Journal of Mathematical Sociology, 1(1), 143–186.
Thurley, S. (2010). Town and Crown: Why London never became an imperial capital. http://www.gresham.ac.uk/event.asp?PageId=4&EventId=990. Accessed 11 June 2011.
Yelling, J. A. (1982). L.C.C. Slum Clearance policies, 1889–1907. Transactions of the Institute of British Geographers, New Series, 7(3), 292–303.
Yelling, J. A. (1986). Slums and slum clearance in Victorian London (London series in economic geography, Vol. 10). London: Allen and Unwin.
Young, H. P. (1998). Individual strategy and social structure. An evolutionary theory of institutions. Princeton: Princeton University Press.
Young, H. P. (2001). The dynamics of conformity. In S. N. Durlauf & H. P. Young (Eds.), Social dynamics (pp. 133–154). Cambridge: The MIT Press.
Author information
Authors and Affiliations
Corresponding author
Editor information
Editors and Affiliations
Rights and permissions
Copyright information
© 2012 Springer Science+Business Media Dordrecht.
About this chapter
Cite this chapter
Meen, G., Nygaard, C., Meen, J. (2012). The Causes of Long-Term Neighbourhood Change. In: van Ham, M., Manley, D., Bailey, N., Simpson, L., Maclennan, D. (eds) Understanding Neighbourhood Dynamics. Springer, Dordrecht. https://doi.org/10.1007/978-94-007-4854-5_3
Download citation
DOI: https://doi.org/10.1007/978-94-007-4854-5_3
Published:
Publisher Name: Springer, Dordrecht
Print ISBN: 978-94-007-4853-8
Online ISBN: 978-94-007-4854-5
eBook Packages: Humanities, Social Sciences and LawSocial Sciences (R0)