Projections Using a Static Spatial Microsimulation Model

Chapter
Part of the Understanding Population Trends and Processes book series (UPTA, volume 6)

Abstract

As spatial microsimulation techniques derive estimates of socio-economic variables for local areas, there may also be a need to project these socio-economic variables into the future. The issue is that deriving projections for small areas can be difficult due to the high rates of migration between small areas. This chapter describes several projection methods that can be applied to a spatial microsimulation model to project small area socio-economic variables into the future without introducing a more complex dynamic microsimulation technique. These methods include inflating the microdata weights, projecting the benchmark tables using regression and projecting the benchmark tables by other means. Some consideration is also given to the cost and complexity of each method. Finally, this chapter looks at the strength and weaknesses of each methodology.

Keywords

House Price Population Projection Accuracy Criterion Labour Force Status Microsimulation Model 
These keywords were added by machine and not by the authors. This process is experimental and the keywords may be updated as the learning algorithm improves.

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Copyright information

© Springer Science+Business Media Dordrecht. 2012

Authors and Affiliations

  1. 1.National Centre for Social and Economic ModellingUniversity of CanberraCanberraAustralia

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