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Turbulence and Uncertainty

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Swarming Landscapes

Part of the book series: Advances in Global Change Research ((AGLO,volume 48))

Abstract

This chapter determines the current societal environment as turbulent. It illustrates that depending the type of environment in a certain period, both urban patterns and the way spatial planning and design is practiced change accordingly.

This timeframe is characterised by the free exchange of products, goods, information and values between consumers, who are also producers. It brings society beyond turbulence and in an uncertain timeframe. Uncertainty, which is often treated with the search for more certainty though gaining more knowledge, is however not always reduced in this old-fashioned way. Uncertainty, and more specifically moment uncertainty can be better approached through increasing self-organisation of the system. Learning from swarms, capable of increasing resilience through collaborating in smart groups, can inform spatial planning in a way that the spatial system, a complex adaptive system, also performs swarm behaviour and organises itself in smart collaborating groups of spatial elements.

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Notes

  1. 1.

    Periods based on: prof ir. S.J. van Embden in Stedebouw in Nederland, 1985.

  2. 2.

    Deep uncertainty is defined as the condition where analysts do not know or the parties to a decision cannot agree upon (1) the appropriate models to describe interactions among a system’s variables, (2) the probability distributions to represent uncertainty about key parameters in the models, or (3) how to value the desirability of alternative outcomes (Lempert et al. 2003, 2006).

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Authors and Affiliations

  1. The Swinburne Institute for Social Research, Swinburne University of Technology, 218, Hawthorn, VIC, 3122, Australia

    Rob Roggema

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  1. Rob Roggema
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Correspondence to Rob Roggema .

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  1. Maribyrning, VIC, Australia, Belvedere Close 2/5, Maribyrning, 3032, Victoria, Australia

    Rob Roggema

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Roggema, R. (2012). Turbulence and Uncertainty. In: Roggema, R. (eds) Swarming Landscapes. Advances in Global Change Research, vol 48. Springer, Dordrecht. https://doi.org/10.1007/978-94-007-4378-6_2

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