Abstract
In this paper we summarize results from the SOLEIL project (SOLar variability and trend Effects in Ice Layers) which was part of the CAWSES priority program in Germany. We present results from LIMA/ICE which is a global circulation model concentrating on ice clouds (NLC, noctilucent clouds) in the summer mesopause region. LIMA/ICE adapts to ECMWF data in the lower atmosphere which produces significant short term and year-to-year variability. The mean ice cloud parameters derived from LIMA/ICE generally agree with observations. The formation, transport, and sublimation of ice particles causes a significant redistribution of water vapor (‘freeze drying’). Model results are now available for all years since 1961 for various scenarios, e.g., with and without greenhouse gas increase etc. Temperatures and water vapor are affected by solar activity. In general it is warmer during solar maximum, but there is a small height region around the mesopause where it is colder. This complicates the prediction of solar cycle effects on ice layers. The magnitude of the solar cycle effect is ∼1–3 K which is similar to the year-to-year variability. Therefore, only a moderate solar cycle signal is observed in temperatures and in ice layers. Temperature trends at NLC altitudes are partly caused by stratospheric trends (‘shrinking effect’). Trends are generally negative, but are positive in the mesopause region. Again, this complicates a simple prediction of temperature trends on ice layers and requires a complex model like LIMA/ICE. Trends in CO2 and stratospheric O3 enhance mesospheric temperature trends but have comparatively small effects in the ice regime. Comparison of contemporary and historic observations of NLC altitudes leads to negligible temperature trends at NLC altitudes (∼83 km). For the time period of satellite measurements (1979–2009) LIMA/ICE predicts trends in ice cloud brightness and occurrence rates, consistent with observations. Temperature trends are not uniform in time but are stronger until the mid 1990s, and weaker thereafter. This change is presumably related to stratospheric ozone recovery. The accidental coincidence of lowest temperatures and solar cycle minimum in the mid 1990s led to large NLC activity. It is important to consider the time period and the height range when studying temperature and ice cloud trends. In the mesosphere temperature trends can be as large as −(3–5) K/decade (in agreement with observations) or rather small, depending on the time period and height range.
This is a preview of subscription content, log in via an institution to check access.
Access this chapter
Tax calculation will be finalised at checkout
Purchases are for personal use only
Notes
- 1.
European Center for Medium-range Weather Forecasts.
- 2.
ftp://laspftp.colorado.edu/pub/SEE-DATA/composite-lya.
In this paper we express Ly α radiation in units of 1011 photons/(cm2⋅s).
- 3.
- 4.
Solar Backscatter in the Ultraviolet, Total Ozone Mapping System.
- 5.
- 6.
In this paper all backscatter coefficients β are given in units of 10−10/(m⋅sr).
- 7.
HAMburg MOdel of the Neutral and Ionized Atmosphere.
- 8.
Whole-Atmosphere Community Climate Model.
- 9.
Stratospheric Sounding Units.
References
Akmaev, R. A., Fomichev, V. I., & Zhu, X. (2006). Impact of middle-atmospheric composition changes on greenhouse cooling in the upper atmosphere. Journal of Atmospheric and Solar-Terrestrial Physics, 68, 1879–1889.
Baumgarten, G., & Fiedler, J. (2008). Vertical structure of particle properties and water content in noctilucent clouds. Geophysical Research Letters, 35, L10811. doi:10.1029/2007GL033084.
Berger, U. (2008). Modeling of middle atmosphere dynamics with LIMA. Journal of Atmospheric and Solar-Terrestrial Physics, 1170–1200. doi:10.1016/j.jastp.2008.02.004.
Berger, U., & Lübken, F.-J. (2011). Mesospheric temperature trends at mid-latitudes in summer. Geophysical Research Letters, 38, L22804. doi:10.1029/2011GL049528.
DeLand, M. T., Shettle, E. P., Thomas, G. E., & Olivero, J. J. (2003). Solar backscattered ultraviolet (SBUV) observations of polar mesospheric clouds (PMCs) over two solar cycles. Journal of Geophysical Research, 108(D8), 8445. doi:10.1029/2002JD002398.
DeLand, M. T., Shettle, E. P., Thomas, G. E., & Olivero, J. J. (2007). Latitude-dependent long-term variations in polar mesospheric clouds from SBUV version 3 PMC data. Journal of Geophysical Research, 112(D10), D10315. doi:10.1029/2006JD007857.
Fiedler, J., Baumgarten, G., Berger, U., Hoffmann, P., Kaifler, N., & Lübken, F.-J. (2011). NLC and the background atmosphere above ALOMAR. ACP, 5701–5717. doi:10.5194/acp-11-5701-2011.
Fortuin, J. P., & Kelder, H. (1998). An ozone climatology based on ozonesonde and satellite measurements. Journal of Geophysical Research, 103, 31709–31734.
Garcia, R. R., Marsh, D. R., Kinnson, D. E., Boville, B. A., & Sassi, F. (2007). Simulation of secular trends in the middle atmosphere, 1950–2003. Journal of Geophysical Research, 112, D09301. doi:10.1029/2006JD007485.
Gleisner, H., Thejll, P., Stendel, M., Kaas, E., & Machenhauer, B. (2005). Solar signals in tropospheric re-analysis data: comparing NCEP/NCAR and ERA40. Journal of Atmospheric and Solar-Terrestrial Physics, 67, 785–791. doi:10.1016/j.jastp.2005.02.001.
Grygalashvyly, M., Sonnemann, G., & Hartogh, P. (2009). Long-term behavior of the concentration of the minor constituents in the mesosphere—a model study. Atmospheric Chemistry and Physics, 9, 2779–2992.
Hartogh, P., Sonnemann, G. R., Li, S., Grygalashvyly, M., Berger, U., & Lübken, F.-J. (2010). Water vapor measurements at ALOMAR over a solar cycle compared with model calculations by LIMA. Journal of Geophysical Research, 115, D00I17. doi:10.1029/2009JD012364.
Hervig, M., & Siskind, D. (2006). Decadal and inter-hemispheric variability in polar mesospheric clouds, water vapor, and temperature. Journal of Atmospheric and Solar-Terrestrial Physics, 68, 30–41.
Jesse, O. (1896). Die Höhe der leuchtenden Nachtwolken. Astronomische Nachrichten, 140, 161–168.
Jones, O., et al. (2009). Evolution of stratospheric ozone and water vapour time series studied with satellite measurements. Atmospheric Chemistry and Physics, 9, 6055–6075.
Keckhut, P., Cagnazzo, C., Chanin, M.-L., Claud, C., & Hauchecorne, A. (2005). The 11-year solar-cycle effects on the temperature in the upper-stratosphere and mesosphere: Part I—Assessment of observations. Journal of Atmospheric and Solar-Terrestrial Physics, 67, 940–947.
Keckhut, P., et al. (2011). An evaluation of uncertainties in monitoring middle atmosphere temperatures with the ground-based Lidar network in support of space observations. Journal of Atmospheric and Solar-Terrestrial Physics. doi:10.1016/j.jastp.2011.01.003.
Kirkwood, S., Dalin, P., & Réchou, A. (2008). Noctilucent clouds observed from the UK and Denmark—trends and variations over 43 years. Annals of Geophysics, 26, 1243–1254.
Lübken, F.-J., & Berger, U. (2007). Interhemispheric comparison of mesospheric ice layers from the LIMA model. Journal of Atmospheric and Solar-Terrestrial Physics, 69(17–18), 2292–2308. doi:10.1016/j.jastp.2007.07.006.
Lübken, F.-J., & Berger, U. (2011). Latitudinal and interhemispheric variation of stratospheric effects on mesospheric ice layer trends. Journal of Geophysical Research, 116, D00P03. doi:10.1029/2010JD015258.
Lübken, F.-J., & Höffner, J. (2004). Experimental evidence for ice particle interaction with metal atoms at the high latitude summer mesopause region. Geophysical Research Letters, 31(8), L08103. doi:10.1029/2004GL019586.
Lübken, F.-J., Baumgarten, G., Fiedler, J., Gerding, M., Höffner, J., & Berger, U. (2008). Seasonal and latitudinal variation of noctilucent cloud altitudes. Geophysical Research Letters, 35, L06801. doi:10.1029/2007GL032281.
Lübken, F.-J., Berger, U., & Baumgarten, G. (2009). Stratospheric and solar cycle effects on long-term variability of mesospheric ice clouds. Journal of Geophysical Research, 114, D00106. doi:10.1029/2009JD012377.
Marsh, D. R., Garcia, R. R., Kinnison, D. E., Boville, B. A., Sassi, F., Solomon, S. C., & Matthes, K. (2007). Modeling the whole atmosphere response to solar cycle changes in radiative and geomagnetic forcing. Journal of Geophysical Research, 112, D23306. doi:10.1029/2006JD008306.
Plane, J., Murray, B., Chu, X., & Gardner, C. (2004). Removal of meteoric iron on polar mesosphere clouds. Science, 304, 426–428.
Randel, W. J., et al. (2009). An update of observed stratospheric temperature trends. Journal of Geophysical Research, 114, D02107. doi:10.1029/2008JD010421.
Rapp, M., & Thomas, G. E. (2006). Modeling the microphysics of mesospheric ice particles: assessment of current capabilities and basic sensitivities. Journal of Atmospheric and Solar-Terrestrial Physics, 68, 715–744.
Russell, J. M., et al. (2009). The aeronomy of ice in the mesosphere (AIM) mission: overview and early science results. Journal of Atmospheric and Solar-Terrestrial Physics, 71. doi:10.1016/j.jastp.2008.08.011.
Schmidt, H., Brasseur, G. P., & Giorgetta, M. A. (2010). Solar cycle signal in a general circulation and chemistry model with internally generated quasi-biennal oscillation. Journal of Geophysical Research, 115, D00114. doi:10.1029/2009JD012542.
Shettle, E. P., DeLand, M. T., Thomas, G. E., & Olivero, J. J. (2009). Long term variations in the frequency of polar mesospheric clouds in the Northern Hemispheric from SBUV. Geophysical Research Letters, 36, L02803. doi:10.1029/2008GL036048.
Smith, A. K., Garcia, R. R., Marsh, D. R., Kinnison, D. E., & Richter, J. H. (2010). Simulations of the response of mesospheric circulation and temperature to the Antarctic ozone hole. Geophysical Research Letters, 37, L22803. doi:10.1029/10GL045255.
Summers, M. E., Conway, R. R., Englert, C., Siskind, D. E., Stevens III, M. J. R., Gordley, L., & McHugh, M. (2001). Discovery of a layer of enhanced water vapor in the arctic summer mesosphere: implications for polar mesospheric clouds. Geophysical Research Letters, 28, 3601–3604.
Thomas, G., Olivero, J., DeLand, M., & Shettle, E. (2003). Comment on ‘Are noctilucent clouds truly a miner’s canary for global change?’. EOS, 84(36), 352–353.
Thomas, G. E. (1995). Climatology of polar mesospheric clouds: interannual variability and implications for long-term trends. Geophysical Monograph, 87, 185–200.
Tsutsui, J., Nishizawa, K., & Sassi, F. (2009). Response of the middle atmosphere to the 11-year solar cycle simulated with the whole atmosphere community climate model. Journal of Geophysical Research, 114, D02111. doi:10.1029/2008JD010316.
von Cossart, G., Fiedler, J., & von Zahn, U. (1999). Size distributions of NLC particles as determined from 3-color observations of NLC by ground-based lidar. Geophysical Research Letters, 26, 1513–1516.
von Savigny, C., Petelina, S. V., Karlsson, B., Llewellyn, E. J., Degenstein, D. A., Lloyd, N. D., & Burrows, J. P. (2005). Vertical variation of NLC particle sizes retrieved from Odin/OSIRIS limb scattering observations. Geophysical Research Letters, 32, L07806. doi:10.1029/2004GL021982.
von Zahn, U. (2003). Are noctilucent clouds truly a ‘miner’s canary’ for global change? EOS, 84(28), 261–264.
von Zahn, U., Baumgarten, G., Berger, U., Fiedler, J., & Hartogh, P. (2004). Noctilucent clouds and the mesospheric water vapour: the past decade. Atmospheric Chemistry and Physics, 4, 2449–2464.
WMO (2011). Global ozone research and monitoring project (Report no. 52). Scientific assessment of ozone depletion: 2010, World Meteorological Organization.
Acknowledgements
We appreciate the continuing financial support from the DFG for the SOLEIL project. The European Centre for Medium-Range Weather Forecasts (ECMWF) is gratefully acknowledged for providing ERA-40 and operational analysis data. Several students have spent a considerable time at the ALOMAR observatory for making measurements. FJL thanks Mrs Rosenthal for her technical support in chairing the CAWSES priority program.
Author information
Authors and Affiliations
Corresponding author
Editor information
Editors and Affiliations
Rights and permissions
Copyright information
© 2013 Springer Science+Business Media Dordrecht
About this chapter
Cite this chapter
Lübken, FJ., Berger, U., Kiliani, J., Baumgarten, G., Fiedler, J. (2013). Solar Variability and Trend Effects in Mesospheric Ice Layers. In: Lübken, FJ. (eds) Climate and Weather of the Sun-Earth System (CAWSES). Springer Atmospheric Sciences. Springer, Dordrecht. https://doi.org/10.1007/978-94-007-4348-9_18
Download citation
DOI: https://doi.org/10.1007/978-94-007-4348-9_18
Publisher Name: Springer, Dordrecht
Print ISBN: 978-94-007-4347-2
Online ISBN: 978-94-007-4348-9
eBook Packages: Earth and Environmental ScienceEarth and Environmental Science (R0)