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Potential Carbon Emission Trajectories of Shanghai, China from 2007 to 2050

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Recarbonization of the Biosphere

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Abstract

A system analysis approach on energy-related carbon (C) emission projection at urban level was developed by use of international local government greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions analysis protocol (IEAP) and long-range energy alternative planning (LEAP) model, taking Shanghai as a case. Based on the historical change of the energy-related C emission of Shanghai, four potential C trajectories from 2007 to 2050 were analyzed. The results show that the energy-related C emission of Shanghai may peak around 249–324 Tg CO2 in year 2030 under three scenarios. Meanwhile, Shanghai can achieve absolute decline in total C emission compared to the level of 2007 when the energy structure is changed to a low-C system, and the C capture and storage (CCS) technology is widely used. Based on these results, several strategic suggestions for developing low-C economy in Shanghai have been proposed, including total emission control, low-C manufacturing industry, low-C transport, low C building, industrial restructure, sustainable consumption and climate change adaptation.

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Abbreviations

C:

carbon

CO2 :

carbon dioxide

CCS:

carbon capture and storage

EE:

energy efficiency

ER:

energy restructure

GHG:

greenhouse gas

IEAP:

international local government GHG emissions analysis protocol

LC:

low carbon

LEAP:

long-range energy alternative planning

PCCE:

per capita carbon emission

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Acknowledgements

The authors would like to express our sincere thanks for the financial support of HSBC Environmental Funds, National scientific and technological support project (2009BAC62B02), Shanghai Municipal Science and Technology Commission Funds (10230712200), Fund of the Tongji University for Promoting Academic Exchange with Germany.

Author information

Authors and Affiliations

  1. UNEP-Tongji Institute of Environment for Sustainable Development, Tongji University, 1239, Siping Road, 200092, Shanghai, China

    Ru Guo, Xiaojing Cao, Jing Zhang, Fengting Li & Hongtao Wang

  2. College of Environmental Science and Engineering, Tongji University, 1239, Siping Road, 200092, Shanghai, China

    Ru Guo, Xiaojing Cao, Jing Zhang, Fengting Li & Hongtao Wang

Authors
  1. Ru Guo
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  2. Xiaojing Cao
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  3. Jing Zhang
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  4. Fengting Li
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  5. Hongtao Wang
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Corresponding author

Correspondence to Fengting Li .

Editor information

Editors and Affiliations

  1. OARDC, Carbon Management &, Ohio State University, Coffey Road 2021, Columbus, 43210, Ohio, USA

    Rattan Lal

  2. , Global Contract for Sustainability, IASS Inst. for Adv. Sust. Studies, Berliner Str. 130, Potsdam, 14467, Brandenburg, Germany

    Klaus Lorenz

  3. , Deutsches GeoForschungsZentrum GFZ, Helmholtz-Zentrum Potsdam, Telegrafenberg, Potsdam, 14473, Germany

    Reinhard F. Hüttl

  4. , Deutsches GeoForschungsZentrum GFZ, Helmholtz-Zentrum Potsdam, Telegrafenberg 309G, Potsdam, 14473, Brandenburg, Germany

    Bernd Uwe Schneider

  5. Walter-Flex-Str. 3, Bonn, 53113, Nordrhein-Westfalen, Germany

    Joachim von Braun

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Guo, R., Cao, X., Zhang, J., Li, F., Wang, H. (2012). Potential Carbon Emission Trajectories of Shanghai, China from 2007 to 2050. In: Lal, R., Lorenz, K., Hüttl, R., Schneider, B., von Braun, J. (eds) Recarbonization of the Biosphere. Springer, Dordrecht. https://doi.org/10.1007/978-94-007-4159-1_17

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