Abstract
A gap between operational and research meteorologists has existed since the infancy of weather forecasting and represents an obstacle to progress in meteorology. This gap is related to the profoundly different perspectives and professional expectations of operational and research meteorologists. For the knowledge, observations, tools, and models described in this book to reach their full potential, the mountain meteorology community must work more effectively to bridge this gap, as described in this chapter. Essential to this effort are advocates who are capable of interacting, communicating, and commanding respect with both the operational and research communities. As a result, the mountain meteorology community should provide the attention and resources needed to ensure that future advocates are created from the pool of young scientists and forecasters. The community should also ensure that knowledge and technological advances from field programs and other research efforts are effectively transferred into operations and, at least in North America, explore the development of an integrated research and forecast center to tackle challenges in mountain hydrometeorology and fire–atmosphere prediction. Although the existence of a modest gap reflects a healthy scientific and forecasting enterprise, these and other gap-bridging activities and incentives described in this chapter should benefit the entire mountain weather community, its operational and research sectors, and, via improved forecasts, society at large.
Access this chapter
Tax calculation will be finalised at checkout
Purchases are for personal use only
References
Allen, D. R., 2001: The genesis of meteorology at the University of Chicago. Bull. Amer. Meteor. Soc., 82, 1905–1909.
Arpagaus, M., and Coauthors, 2009: MAP D-PHASE: Demonstrating forecast capabilities for flood events in the Alpine region. Veröffentlichung der MeteoSchweiz, 78, 75 pp. [Available online at http://www.meteoschweiz.admin.ch/web/de/forschung/publikationen/meteoschweiz_publikationen/veroeffentlichungen.html.]
Baldwin, M. E., J. S. Kain, and M. P. Kay, 2002: Properties of the convection scheme in NCEP’s Eta Model that affect forecast sounding interpretation. Wea. Forecasting, 17, 1063–1079.
Banacos, P. C., and D. M. Schultz, 2005: The use of moisture flux convergence in forecasting convective initiation: Historical and operational perspectives. Wea. Forecasting, 20, 351–366.
Bergeron, T., 1959: Weather forecasting: Methods in scientific weather analysis: An outline in the history of ideas and hints at a program. The Atmosphere and the Sea in Motion, B. Bolin, Ed., The Rockefeller Institute Press, 440–474.
Besser, B., 2008: Development of meteorology and geophysics at the University of Graz. Proceedings of the First European History of Physics Conference, Graz, Austria, Sep 18–21 2006, P. M. Schuster and D. Weaire, Eds., Living Edition Publishers, 159–170. [Available online at http://www.livingedition.at/en/titles/science/proceedings.]
Board on Atmospheric Sciences and Climate, 2000: From Research to Operations in Weather Satellites and Numerical Weather Prediction: Crossing the Valley of Death. National Academy Press, 96 pp. [Available online at http://www.nap.edu/catalog.php?record_id=9948.]
Bond, N. A. and Coauthors, 1997: The Coastal Observation and Simulation with Topography (COAST) Experiment. Bull. Amer. Meteor. Soc., 78, 1941–1955.
Bosart, L. F., 2003: Whither the weather analysis and forecasting process? Wea. Forecasting, 18, 520–529.
Bright, D. R., S. J. Weiss, J. J. Levit, M. S. Wandishin, J. S. Kain, and D. J. Stensrud, 2004: Evaluation of short-range ensemble forecasts during the 2003 SPC/NSSL Spring Program. Preprints, 22nd Conference on Severe Local Storms, Hyannis, MA, Amer. Meteor. Soc., CD-ROM, P15.5.
Bundgaard, R. C., 1979: Sverre Petterssen, weather forecaster. Bull. Amer. Meteor. Soc., 60, 182–195.
Burpee, R. W., 1989: Gordon E. Dunn: Preeminent forecaster of midlatitude storms and tropical cyclones. Wea. Forecasting, 4, 573–584.
Cane, D., and M. Milelli, 2006: Weather forecasts obtained with a multimodel superensemble technique in a complex orography region. Met. Zeitschrift, 15, 207–214.
Cane, D., and M. Milelli, 2008: Comparison of COSMO models and multimodel superensemble outputs in Piemonte. COSMO Newsletter No. 9, 69–79. [Available online at http://www.cosmo-model.org/content/model/documentation/newsLetters/newsLetter09/cnl9-13.pdf.]
Coniglio, M. C., H. E. Brooks, S. J. Weiss, and S. F. Corfidi, 2007: Forecasting the maintenance of quasi-linear mesoscale convective systems. Wea. Forecasting, 22, 556–570.
Craven, J. P., R. E. Jewell, and H. E. Brooks, 2002: Comparison between observed convective cloud-base heights and lifting condensation level for two different lifted parcels. Wea. Forecasting, 17, 885–890.
Doswell, C. A. III, 1986: The human element in weather forecasting. Nat. Wea. Dig., 11 (2), 6–17.
Doswell, C. A. III, 2004: Weather forecasting by humans—Heuristics and decision making. Wea. Forecasting, 19, 1115–1126.
Doswell, C. A. III, 2007: Historical overview of severe convective storms research. Electr. J. Severe Storms Meteor., 2(1), 1–25.
Doswell, C. A. III, and H. E. Brooks, 1998: Budget cutting and the value of weather services. Wea. Forecasting, 13, 206–212.
Doswell, C. A. III, L. R. Lemon, and R. A. Maddox, 1981: Forecaster training—A review and analysis. Bull. Amer. Meteor. Soc., 62, 983–988.
Ebert, E., L. J. Wilson, B. G. Brown, P. Nurmi, H. E. Brooks, J. Bally, and M. Jaeneke, 2004: Verification of nowcasts from the WWRP Sydney 2000 Forecast Demonstration Project. Wea. Forecasting, 19, 73–96.
Erkkilä, T., 2007: About the nature of the forecaster profession and the human contribution to very short range forecasts. The European Forecaster, 14, 6–11. [Available online at http://www.euroforecaster.org/latenews/newsletter.html.]
Friedman, R. M., 1989: Appropriating the Weather: Vilhelm Bjerknes and the Construction of a Modern Meteorology. Cornell Univ. Press, 251 pp.
Friedman, R. M., 1999: Constituting the polar front, 1919–1920. The Life Cycles of Extratropical Cyclones. M. A. Shapiro and S. Grønås, Eds., Amer. Meteor. Soc., 29–40.
Harper, K. C., 2008: Weather by the Numbers: The Genesis of Modern Meteorology. MIT Press, 308 pp.
Harper, K. C., 2009: Will meteorologists lose their jobs? NWP and automation fears in the Fifties. Presidential History Symposium, 89th American Meteorological Society Annual Meeting, P2.3. [Available online at http://ams.confex.com/ams/89annual/techprogram/session_22297.htm.]
Harper, K., L. W. Uccellini, E. Kalnay, K. Carey, and L. Morone, 2007: 50th anniversary of operational numerical weather prediction. Bull. Amer. Meteor. Soc., 88, 639–650.
Hart, K. A., W. J. Steenburgh, D. J. Onton, and A. J. Siffert, 2004: An evaluation of mesoscale-model-based Model Output Statistics (MOS) during the 2002 Olympic and Paralympic Winter Games. Wea. Forecasting, 19, 200–218.
Horel, J., T. Potter, L. Dunn, W. J. Steenburgh, M. Eubank, M. Splitt, and D. J. Onton, 2002a: Weather support for the 2002 Winter Olympic and Paralympic Games. Bull. Amer. Meteor. Soc., 83, 227–240.
Horel, J., M. Splitt, L. Dunn, J. Pechmann, B. White, C. Ciliberti, S. Lazarus, J. Slemmer, D. Zaff, and J. Burks, 2002b: Mesowest: Cooperative mesonets in the western United States. Bull. Amer. Meteor. Soc., 83, 211–225.
Joe, P., and Coauthors, 2010: Weather services, science advances, and the Vancouver 2010 Olympic and Paralympic Winter Games. Bull. Amer. Meteor. Soc., 91, 31–36.
Kain, J. S., M. E. Baldwin, P. R. Janish, S. J. Weiss, M. P. Kay, and G. W. Carbin, 2003a: Subjective verification of numerical models as a component of a broader interaction between research and operations. Wea. Forecasting, 18, 847–860.
Kain, J. S., P. R. Janish, S. J. Weiss, M. E. Baldwin, R. S. Schneider, and H. E. Brooks, 2003b: Collaboration between forecasters and research scientists at the NSSL and SPC: The Spring Program. Bull. Amer. Meteor. Soc., 84, 1797–1806.
Kain, J. S., S. J. Weiss, J. J. Levit, M. E. Baldwin, and D. R. Bright, 2006: Examination of convection-allowing configurations of the WRF model for the prediction of severe convective weather: The SPC/NSSL Spring Program 2004. Wea. Forecasting, 21, 167–181.
Kain, J. S., S. J. Weiss, D. R. Bright, M. E. Baldwin, J. J. Levit, G. W. Carbin, C. S. Schwartz, M. L. Weisman, K. K. Droegemeier, D. B. Weber, and K. W. Thomas, 2008: Some practical considerations regarding horizontal resolution in the first generation of operational convection-allowing NWP. Wea. Forecasting, 23, 931–952.
Keenan, T., and Coauthors, 2003: The Sydney 2000 World Weather Research Programme Forecast Demonstration Project: Overview and current status. Bull. Amer. Meteor. Soc., 84, 1041–1054.
Knabb, R. D., J. G. Jiing, C. W. Landsea, and W. R. Seguin, 2005: The Joint Hurricane Testbed (JHT): Progress and future plans. Preprints, Ninth Symposium on Integrated Observing and Assimilation Systems for the Atmosphere, Oceans, and Land Surface, San Diego, CA, Amer. Meteor. Soc., 2.2. [Available online at http://ams.confex.com/ams/Annual2005/techprogram/paper_84938.htm.]
Lewis, J. M., 1995: WAVES forecasters in World War II (with a brief survey of other women meteorologists in World War II). Bull. Amer. Meteor. Soc., 76, 2187–2202.
Mailhot, J., and Coauthors, 2010: Environment Canada’s experimental numerical weather prediction systems for the Vancouver 2010 Olympic and Paralympic Games. Bull. Amer. Meteor. Soc., in press.
Mass, C., 2006: The uncoordinated giant: Why U.S. weather research and prediction are not achieving their potential. Bull. Amer. Meteor. Soc., 87, 573–584.
Mass, C. F., and Coauthors, 2003: Regional environmental prediction over the Pacific Northwest. Bull. Amer. Meteor. Soc., 84, 1353–1366.
May, P. T., and Coauthors, 2004: The Sydney 2000 Olympic Games Forecast Demonstration Project: Forecasting, observing network infrastructure, and data processing issues. Wea. Forecasting, 19, 115–130.
McCarthy, P. J., D. Ball, and W. Purcell, 2007: Project Phoenix—Optimizing the machine-person mix in high-impact weather forecasting. Preprints, 22nd Conference on Weather Analysis and Forecasting/18th Conference on Numerical Weather Prediction, Park City, UT, Amer. Meteor. Soc., P6A.5. [Available online at http://ams.confex.com/ams/22WAF18NWP/techprogram/paper_122657.htm.]
Morss, R. E., and F. M. Ralph, 2007: Use of information by National Weather Service forecasters and emergency managers during CALJET and PACJET-2001. Wea. Forecasting, 22, 539–555.
Morss, R. E., O. V. Wilhelmi, M. W. Downton, and E. Gruntfest, 2005: Flood risk, uncertainty, and scientific information for decision making: Lessons from an interdisciplinary project. Bull. Amer. Meteor. Soc., 86, 1593–1601.
Palmer, T., 2008: Edward Norton Lorenz. Physics Today, 61, 81–82.
Petterssen, S., 2001: Weathering the Storm: Sverre Petterssen, the D-Day Forecast, and the Rise of Modern Meteorology, J. R. Fleming, Ed., Amer. Meteor. Soc., 329 pp.
Pliske, R. M., B. Crandall, and G. Klein, 2004: Competence in weather forecasting. Psychological Investigations of Competence in Decision Making, K. Smith, J. Shanteau, and P. Johnson, Eds., Cambridge University Press, 40–68.
Ralph, F. M., and Coauthors, 2005: Improving short-term (0–48 h) cool-season quantitative precipitation forecasting: Recommendations from a USWRP workshop. Bull. Amer. Meteor. Soc., 86, 1619–1632.
Ramage, C. S., 1978: Further outlook—Hazy. Bull. Amer. Meteor. Soc., 59, 18–21.
Ramage, C. S., 1993: Forecasting in meteorology. Bull. Amer. Meteor. Soc., 74, 1863–1871.
Rauhala, J., and D. M. Schultz, 2009: Severe thunderstorm and tornado warnings in Europe. Atmos. Res., 93, 369–380,
Reed, R. J., 2003: A short account of my education, career choice, and research motivation. A Half Century of Progress in Meteorology: A Tribute to Richard Reed. R. H. Johnson and R. A. Houze Jr., Eds., Amer. Meteor. Soc., 1–12.
Roebber, P. J., 2005: Bridging the gap between theory and applications: An inquiry into atmospheric science teaching. Bull. Amer. Meteor. Soc., 86, 507–517.
Roebber, P. J., D. M. Schultz, and R. Romero, 2002: Synoptic regulation of the 3 May 1999 tornado outbreak. Wea. Forecasting, 17, 399–429.
Roebber, P. J., D. M. Schultz, B. A. Colle, and D. J. Stensrud, 2004: Toward improved prediction: High-resolution and ensemble modeling systems in operations. Wea. Forecasting, 19, 936–949.
Ross, T., and N. Lott, 2003: A climatology of 1980–2003 extreme weather and climate events. National Climatic Data Center Technical Report No. 2003-01. [Available online at http://ols.nndc.noaa.gov/plolstore/plsql/olstore.prodspecific?prodnum=C00580-PUB-A0001.]
Rossby, C.-G., 1934: Comments on meteorological research. J. Aeronaut. Sci., 1, 32–34.
Rotach, M. W., and Coauthors, 2009a: MAP D-PHASE: Real-time demonstration of weather forecast quality in the Alpine region. Bull. Amer. Meteor. Soc., 90, 1321–1336.
Rotach, M. W., and Coauthors, 2009b: Supplement to MAP D-PHASE: Real-time demonstration of weather forecast quality in the Alpine region: Additional applications of the D-PHASE datasets. Bull. Amer. Meteor. Soc., 90, S28–S32.
Sanders, F., 2008: A career with fronts: Real ones and bogus ones. Synoptic–Dynamic Meteorology and Weather Analysis and Forecasting. A Tribute to Fred Sanders, L. F. Bosart and H. B. Bluestein, Eds., Amer. Meteor. Soc., 421–422.
Sills, D. M. L., 2005: The Research Support Desk Initiative at the Ontario Storm Prediction Centre. Meteorological Research Branch Technical Note #-2005-001, Environment Canada. 30 pp.
Sills, D. M. L., 2009: On the MSC forecasters forums and the future role of the human forecaster. Bull. Amer. Meteor. Soc., 90, 619–627.
Sills, D. M. L., and N. M. Taylor, 2008: The Research Support Desk (RSD) initiative at Environment Canada: Linking severe weather researchers and forecasters in a real-time operational setting. Preprints, 24th AMS Conference on Severe Local Storms, Savannah, GA, Amer. Meteor. Soc., Paper 9A.1. [Available online at http://ams.confex.com/ams/pdfpapers/142033.pdf.]
Smith, R. K., G. Garden, J. Molinari, and R. K. Morton, 2001: Proceedings of an International Workshop on the Dynamics and Forecasting of Tropical Weather Systems. Bull. Amer. Meteor. Soc., 82, 2825–2829.
Snellman, L. W., 1977: Operational forecasting using automated guidance. Bull. Amer. Meteor. Soc., 58, 1036–1044.
Snyder, B. J., C. Doyle, D. A. Wesley, J. D. Cummine, and M. Meyers, 2006: The first MSC/COMET mountain weather course. Preprints, 12th Conf. on Mountain Meteorology, Santa Fe, NM, Amer. Meteor. Soc., P16.2.
Snyder, B. J., and M. Loney, 2007. Survey of Forecaster Training, 2006 Results. Meteorological Service of Canada. Unpublished.
Stanitski, D. M., and D. J. Charlevoix, 2008: AMS membership survey results: Who are the student members of the AMS? Bull. Amer. Meteor. Soc., 89, 892–895.
Stauffer, D. R., G. K. Hunter, A. Deng, J. R. Zielonka, K. Tinklepaugh, P. Hayes, and C. Kiley, 2007: On the role of atmospheric data assimilation and model resolution on model forecast accuracy for the Torino Winter Olympics. Preprints, 22nd Conference on Weather Analysis and Forecasting/18th Conference on Numerical Weather Prediction, Park City, UT, Amer. Meteor. Soc., P11A.6. [Available online at http://ams.confex.com/ams/22WAF18NWP/techprogram/paper_124791.htm.]
Steenburgh, W. J., and C. F. Mass, 1996: Interaction of an intense extratropical cyclone with coastal orography. Mon. Wea. Rev., 124, 1329–1352.
Stoelinga, M. T., and Coauthors, 2003: Improvement of Microphysical Parameterization through Observational Verification Experiment. Bull. Amer. Meteor. Soc., 84, 1807–1826.
Stuart, N. A., P. S. Market, B. Telfeyan, G. M. Lackmann, K. Carey, H. E. Brooks, D. Nietfeld, B. C. Motta, and K. Reeves, 2006: The future of humans in an increasingly automated forecast process. Bull. Amer. Meteor. Soc., 87, 1497–1502.
Stuart, N. A., D. M. Schultz, and G. Klein, 2007: Maintaining the role of humans in the forecast process: Analyzing the psyche of expert forecasters. Bull. Amer. Meteor. Soc., 88, 1893–1898.
Volkert, H., and T. Gutermann, 2007: Inter-domain cooperation for mesoscale atmospheric laboratories: The Mesoscale Alpine Program as a rich study case. Quart. J. Roy. Meteor. Soc., 133, 949–967.
Waldstreicher, J. S., 2005: Assessing the impact of collaborative research projects on NWS warning performance. Bull. Amer. Meteor. Soc., 86, 193–203.
Washington State Military Department, 2007: Windstorm Response after Action Report: A Statewide Report to the Governor. 77 pp. [Available online at http://www.emd.wa.gov/publications/documents/FINAL_AAR_040407.pdf.]
Weiss, S. J., D. R. Bright, J. S. Kain, J. J. Levit, M. E. Pyle, Z. I. Janjic, B. S. Ferrier, and J. Du, 2006: Complementary use of short-range ensemble and 4.5 km WRF-NMM model guidance for severe weather forecasting at the Storm Prediction Center. Preprints, 23rd Conference on Severe Local Storms, St. Louis, MO, Amer. Meteor. Soc., CD-ROM 8.5.
Weiss, S. J., J. S. Kain, D. R. Bright, J. J. Levit, G. W. Carbin, M. E. Pyle, Z. I. Janjic, B. S. Ferrier, J. Du, M. L. Weisman, and M. Xue, 2007: The NOAA Hazardous Weather Testbed: Collaborative testing of ensemble and convection-allowing WRF models and subsequent transfer to operations at the Storm Prediction Center. Preprints, 22nd Conference on Weather Analysis and Forecasting/18th Conference on Numerical Weather Prediction, Park City, UT, Amer. Meteor. Soc., CD-ROM, 6B.4.
Wetzel, M., and Coauthors, 2004: Mesoscale snowfall prediction and verification in mountainous terrain. Wea. Forecasting, 19, 806–828.
Wilson, J. W., E. Ebert, T. Saxen, C. Pierce, M. Sleigh, A. Seed, R. Roberts and C. Mueller, 2004: Sydney 2000 Forecast Demonstration Project: Convective storm nowcasting. Wea. Forecasting, 19, 131–150.
Zappa, M., and Coauthors, 2008: MAP D-PHASE: Real-time demonstration of hydrological ensemble prediction systems. Atmos. Sci. Lett., 9, 80–87.
Acknowledgments
We thank the participants in the 2008 AMS/COMET/MSC Mountain Weather Workshop: Bridging the Gap between Research and Forecasting for 4 days of lectures and discussion that stimulated this chapter, as well as our editors and chapter coauthors for their contributions to this book. We also thank Katja Friedrich, John Lewis, Andrea Rossa, Mathias Rotach, Andrew Russell, David Stensrud, Hans Volkert, and three anonymous reviewers for their contributions to the manuscript. Participants in the panel discussion “Enhancing the Connectivity between Research and Applications for the Benefit of Society” at the 2008 AMS Annual Meeting also provided thoughts and ideas that influenced parts of this chapter. Contributing author Steenburgh acknowledges the support of the National Science Foundation and National Weather Service. Contributing author Schultz acknowledges the support of Vaisala Oyj. Any opinions, findings, and conclusions or recommendations expressed in this material are those of the authors and do not necessarily reflect the views of the National Science Foundation, National Weather Service, or Vaisala Oyj.
Author information
Authors and Affiliations
Corresponding author
Editor information
Editors and Affiliations
Rights and permissions
Copyright information
© 2013 Springer Science+Business Media B.V.
About this chapter
Cite this chapter
Steenburgh, W.J., Schultz, D.M., Snyder, B.J., Meyers, M.P. (2013). Bridging the Gap Between Operations and Research to Improve Weather Prediction in Mountainous Regions. In: Chow, F., De Wekker, S., Snyder, B. (eds) Mountain Weather Research and Forecasting. Springer Atmospheric Sciences. Springer, Dordrecht. https://doi.org/10.1007/978-94-007-4098-3_12
Download citation
DOI: https://doi.org/10.1007/978-94-007-4098-3_12
Published:
Publisher Name: Springer, Dordrecht
Print ISBN: 978-94-007-4097-6
Online ISBN: 978-94-007-4098-3
eBook Packages: Earth and Environmental ScienceEarth and Environmental Science (R0)