Abstract
Chapter 2 (The New Demography) is concerned with the nature and long-run implications of new features of demographic change. Because they entail more extreme developments, they pose greater challenges to which successful adaptations are all the more important. The chapter first compares the old demography of aging, derived from classical transition theory, with ‘the new demography’, based on current theories and observations. The unprecedented impacts of low fertility and extended life expectancy have produced a sharply contrasting set of expectations about future changes. These include higher rates and levels of aging in many countries. The chapter illustrates diagrammatically the cross-over thorough time from the old to the new demography and the relative position of countries in relation to broad trends in population aging. The chapter also examines the implications for aging of different levels of fertility, mortality and migration as the shift to the new demography occurs. Modeling of these demonstrates possible changes in the size and structure of populations and the severe aging and depopulating effects of current demographic rates in parts of Europe and Eastern Asia. The models also illustrate the viability of policy proposals involving the use of immigration to counter aging and population decline.
Those with a concern for an environmentally sustainable future may see a gradual decline in population as a blessing rather than a threat, but the prospect of population decline implied by current fertility rates is anything but gradual, threatening to halve or even quarter the populations of some Western nations over the course of the next century. (Castles 2004: 141)
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Rowland, D.T. (2012). The New Demography. In: Population Aging. International Perspectives on Aging, vol 3. Springer, Dordrecht. https://doi.org/10.1007/978-94-007-4050-1_2
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