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Spills of the Aral Sea: Formation, Functions and Future Development of the Aydar-Arnasay Lakes

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Environmental Security in Watersheds: The Sea of Azov

Abstract

The Aydar-Arnasay lake system (AALS) is located in the Republic of Uzbekistan and represents one of the most remarkable examples of anthropogenic (human-made) aquatic ecosystems. The system plays an important role in the regional economy such as fisheries, biodiversity maintenance and conservation since the system is a designated RAMSAR site in 2007 and finally recreation and tourism. Anticipated regional climate change might have an impact on the activity of this fragile ecosystem in the near future. At the same time the current AALS functioning can be hindered due to the complicated political situation in the Central Asia and the policy of self-interest and self-sufficiency applied by the regional States. Research presented in this paper reviews the process of AALS formation and analyzes its historical development. Based on the contemporary situation analysis of the four main water management scenarios for the AALS were introduced. These scenarios were tested and analyzed using the STELLA® software and the most realistic and plausible future of the AALS has also been assessed and discussed. As a result, this research concluded that the most probable scenario of the AALS fate and functioning is characterized by the lack of interstate cooperation and a negligible regional climate change.

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Notes

  1. 1.

    The conveyance efficiency – typically defined as the ratio between the water that reaches a farm or field and that diverted from the irrigation water source [7].

  2. 2.

    Ecosystem services – the benefits which people obtain from ecosystems. These include provisioning services such as food and water; regulating services such as flood and disease control; cultural services such as spiritual, recreational, and cultural benefits; and supporting services such as nutrient cycling that maintain the conditions for life on Earth (Source: http://www.greenfacts.org/glossary/def/ecosystem-services.htm)

  3. 3.

    Halophyte – A plant that is adapted to live in soil containing a high concentration of salt. Such plants are abundant in salt marshes and mud flats. Halophytes must obtain water from soil water with a higher osmotic pressure than normal soil water. To achieve this the root cells of some halophytes have a very high concentration of salts and so are able to take up water by osmosis (Source: http://botanydictionary.org/halophyte.html)

  4. 4.

    The water recharge means a hydrologic process where water moves downward from surface water to groundwater with its subsequent replenishment (Source: http://www.science-dictionary.com/definition/groundwater-recharge.html)

  5. 5.

    Impounding reservoir – (civil engineering) a reservoir with outlets controlled by gates that release stored surface water as needed in a dry season; may also store water for domestic or industrial use or for flood control. Also known as storage reservoir [20].

  6. 6.

    Barter relations imply gas/water exchange with regard to countries’ needs. Kyrgyzstan provided water resources for the downstream countries, Kazakhstan and Uzbekistan, mainly for irrigation purposes. In return, these counties provide gas needed for energy production.

  7. 7.

    Hydrologic regime – “changes with time in the rates of flow of rivers and in the levels and volumes of water in rivers, lakes, reservoirs, and marshes. The hydrologic regime is closely related to seasonal changes in climate. In regions with a warm climate, the hydrologic regime is affected mainly by atmospheric precipitation and evaporation; in regions with a cold or temperate climate, the air temperature is a leading factor. The hydrologic regime of lakes is determined by the relationship between the amount of precipitation reaching the lake’s surface, evaporation, surface and underground flow into the lake, and surface and underground outflow of water from the lake, as well as by the size and shape of the lake, the pattern of change in the surface area with change in level, and wind activity, which determines the size of the waves and the extent to which the level rises and falls. Fluctuations in the lake level may be seasonal, annual, or short-term. Man’s economic activities are introducing ever greater changes in the hydrologic regime.” (The Great Soviet Encyclopedia 1979).

  8. 8.

    UNEP’s third Global Environment Outlook (GEO-3) Report was published in 2002. The report presents four scenarios of sharply contrasting futures, looking ahead over the next thirty years. The four contrasting visions have many implications for policy – from hunger to climate change, from freshwater issues to biodiversity and from waste generation to urbanization. GEO-3 Report quantifies the impacts of the scenarios for all 19 GEO ‘sub-regions’, such as Eastern Africa, South Asia and Central Europe. Regional impacts are discussed in the context of sustainable development. The report summary compares the impacts of the four scenarios across regions – and for the world as a whole – in the light of internationally agreed targets including those in the Millennium Declaration where applicable [35].

  9. 9.

    Some documents analyzed are listed below:

    The Water Code of Kazakhstan(2003)

    The Water Code of Kyrgyzstan (2004)

    The Water Law in Kyrgyzstan (1994)

    The Law “Interstate use of water resources, bodies and facilities in Kyrgyzstan ” (2001)

    The Law “Water and water use in Uzbekistan” (1994)

    “Agreement among Kazakhstan, Uzbekistan and Kyrgyzstan on water and energy resources of the Syrdarya River Basin” (1998)

    “Agreement among Kazakhstan, Uzbekistan and Kyrgyzstan on joint water use of Narun-Syrdarya cascade of reservoirs” (1998)

    “Agreements between Uzbekistan and Kyrgyzstan on joint water and energy resources” (2000 and 2001)

    International Water Law in Central Asia: Commitments, Compliance and Beyond

    (Ziganshina D, The Journal of Water Law).

  10. 10.

    In order to get a representative picture, the model was simulated several times for each water management scenario. The lines on Figs. 11.13, 11.15–11.17 present a range of lakes’ volume change.

  11. 11.

    See Fig. 11.14.

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Authors and Affiliations

  1. Department of Environmental Sciences and Policy, Central European University, Nador u. 9-11, 1051, Budapest, Hungary

    Kristina Rodina & Ruben Mnatsakanian

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  1. Kristina Rodina
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  2. Ruben Mnatsakanian
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Correspondence to Kristina Rodina .

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Editors and Affiliations

  1. , Modelling Laboratory, Central European University, Nador ut. 9, Budapest, 1051, Hungary

    Viktor Lagutov

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Rodina, K., Mnatsakanian, R. (2012). Spills of the Aral Sea: Formation, Functions and Future Development of the Aydar-Arnasay Lakes. In: Lagutov, V. (eds) Environmental Security in Watersheds: The Sea of Azov. NATO Science for Peace and Security Series C: Environmental Security. Springer, Dordrecht. https://doi.org/10.1007/978-94-007-2460-0_11

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