Abstract
Impacts from climate change may affect vital factors of environmental and human security related to water uses, such as domestic water supply, hydropower and industrial production, agricultural irrigation and ecosystems needs. This is particularly important in regions with arid and semi-arid climates like the Mediterranean and the South Eastern Europe. In this presentation the coupling of different climate change models with a distributed hydrological model was developed in order to explore the impact of climate change on water resources at the river basin level. Firstly, the coupled atmosphere-ocean global climate model ECHAM5/MPIOM, developed by the Max Planck Institute for Meteorology in Hamburg, Germany, was used to provide boundary conditions of the regional climate model CLM. Simulation results at 6 hourly intervals were provided for Europe, using a spatial grid resolution of 20 × 20 km. Secondly, the spatially distributed hydrological model MODSUR-NEIGE (MODélisation des transferts de SURface en présence de NEIGE, in French), developed by the School of Mines, Paris, France, was used for dynamically downscaling boundary conditions provided by CLM over a spatially variable grid ranging between 250 m and 2 km in size. In this way temperature, precipitation and evapotranspiration distributions were adapted to local conditions, such as the river watershed relief, local geology and land uses. The methodology is illustrated for the Mesta/Nestos river basin, which is shared between Bulgaria and Greece and is part of the worldwide UNESCO-HELP initiative. The upstream northern part of the basin (Mesta) is in Bulgaria, and the downstream part (Nestos) is in Greece. Impacts from climate change have resulted in a significant reduction of river flow with serious consequences for hydropower production and agricultural activities mainly near the Nestos delta.
Access this chapter
Tax calculation will be finalised at checkout
Purchases are for personal use only
References
Alexandrov V, Genev M (2003) Climate variability and change impact on water resources in Bulgaria. Eur Water 1/2:25–30
Golaz-Cavazzi C (1995) Exploitation d’un modèle numérique de terrain pour l’aide à la mise en place d’un modèle hydrologique distribué. DEA UPMC, 71pp
Grunewald K, Scheithauer J, Monget J-M, Brown B (2008) Characterization of contemporary local climate change in the mountains of southwest of Bulgaria. Climatic Change 95(3–4): 535–549
Roeckner E et al (2003) The atmospheric general circulation model ECHAM 5. Part I: model description. MPI-Report 349
IPCC (2001) In: Houghton JT, Ding Y, Griggs DJ, Noguer M, van der Linden PJ, Dai X, Maskell K, Johnson CA (eds), Climate change 2001: the scientific basis: contribution of working group I to the third assessment report of the intergovernmental panel on climate change. Cambridge University Press, Cambridge and New York, 881 pp
Jungclaus JH, Botzet M, Haak H, Keenlyside N, Luo J-J, Latif M, Marotzke J, Mikolajewicz U, Roeckner E (2006) Ocean circulation and tropical variability in the coupled model ECHAM5/MPI-OM. J Clim 19(16):3952–3972
Kotlarski S, Block A, Böhm U, Jacob D, Keuler K, Knoche R, Rechid D, Walter A (2005) Regional climate model simulations as input for hydrological applications: evaluation of uncertainties. Adv Geosci 5:119–125
Ledoux E, Girard G, de Marsily G, Deschenes J (1989) Spatially distributed modeling: conceptual approach, coupling surface water and ground water. In: Morel-Seytoux HJ (ed) Unsaturated flow hydrologic modeling – theory and practice, NATO ASI Series S 275. Kluwer, Boston, pp 435–454
Mearns LO, Giorgi F, Whetton P, Pabon D, Hulme M, Lal M (2003) Guidelines for use of climate scenarios developed from regional climate model experiments. DDC of IPCC TGCIA. http://www.ipcc-data.org/guidelines/dgm_no1_v1_10-2003.pdf
Skoulikaris Ch (2008) Mathematical modelling applied to the sustainable management of water resources projects at a river basin scale: the case of the Mesta-Nestos. Joint PhD thesis, Aristotle University of Thessaloniki, Greece and Mines ParisTech, Paris
Author information
Authors and Affiliations
Corresponding author
Editor information
Editors and Affiliations
Rights and permissions
Copyright information
© 2012 Springer Science+Business Media B.V.
About this paper
Cite this paper
Skoulikaris, C., Ganoulis, J. (2012). Climate Change Impacts on River Catchment Hydrology Using Dynamic Downscaling of Global Climate Models. In: Fernando, H., Klaić, Z., McCulley, J. (eds) National Security and Human Health Implications of Climate Change. NATO Science for Peace and Security Series C: Environmental Security. Springer, Dordrecht. https://doi.org/10.1007/978-94-007-2430-3_24
Download citation
DOI: https://doi.org/10.1007/978-94-007-2430-3_24
Published:
Publisher Name: Springer, Dordrecht
Print ISBN: 978-94-007-2429-7
Online ISBN: 978-94-007-2430-3
eBook Packages: Earth and Environmental ScienceEarth and Environmental Science (R0)