The Use of Models to Account for the Variability of Agricultural Data

Abstract

LCA outputs are often presented as point estimates measuring potential impacts although average impacts values may be misleading to rank different options, especially in the case of agricultural products. In an LCA study comparing different slurry application techniques, NH3 and N2O emissions have been estimated through two approaches, experimental data collected from the literature and mathematical simulations over different soil and climate conditions. Both approaches lead to similar ranges of emissions; however the simulation-based approach allows us to construct a probability distribution of emissions whereas the limited number of experimental studies leads only to the definition of a range of emissions. A better knowledge of the variability of emissions helps the practitioner to sort alternatives and to detect situations where they are not discernable. Moreover the knowledge of the distribution and of its most impacting sources of variability leads to the definition of more informative and significant typologies.