Abstract
Understanding trends and variations of current and historical hydroclimatic variables is pertinent to the future development and sustainable management of water resources of a particular region. Information regarding hydroclimatological issues is important within the context of global warming, water and energy cycles and the increasing demand for water due to population and economic growth (Sankarasubramanian and Vogel, 2003; Oguntunde et al., 2006). Changes in the climate system and land cover have been widely accepted to have important consequences for regional to global water resources management and conservation. The extent to which human alteration of earth’s environment affects the global hydrologic cycle is still largely unknown (Szilagyi, 2001). Valuable historical records of hydrologic patterns over complex drainage basins help to understand anthropogenic and climatic effects on large-scale terrestrial ecosystems (Vörösmarty and Sahagian, 2000). One of the very important necessities of research into climate change is to analyze and detect historical changes in the climatic system (Houghton et al., 1996). Rainfall is a principal element of the hydrological cycle, hence understanding its behaviour may be of profound social and economic significance. Detection of trends and oscillations in the rainfall time series yields important information for understanding the climate. However, rainfall changes are particularly hard to gauge, because rainfall is not uniform and varies considerably from place to place and time to time, even on small scales.
Access this chapter
Tax calculation will be finalised at checkout
Purchases are for personal use only
Preview
Unable to display preview. Download preview PDF.
References
Adefolalu, D.O. (1986). Rainfall trends in Nigeria. Theoretical and Applied Climatology,37: 205-219.
Akinyemi, O.O., McGinn, S.M. and Cutforth, H.W. (2001). Seasonal and spatial patterns of rainfall trends on the Canadian Prairies. Journal of Climate, 14: 21772182.
Alli, A.A. (2010). Trends and cycles of rainfall and temperature for water resources development in Nigeria. Unpublished M.Sc. Thesis, the Federal University of Technology, Akure, Nigeria.
Ati, O.F., Stigter, C.J., Iguisi, O.E. and Afolayan, J.O. (2009). Profile of rainfall change and variability in the northern Nigeria, 1953-2002. Research Journal of Environmental and Earth Sciences, 1(2): 58-63.
Barrios, S., Bertinelli, L. and Strobl, E. (2010). Trends in rainfall and economic growth in Africa: A neglected cause of the African growth tragedy. The Review of Economics and Statistics, MIT Press, 92(2): 350-366.
Bello, N.J. (1998). A study of evidence of climate change based on rainfall seasonality and the reliability of rainfall regime in Nigeria. Sustained Africa,4: 30-32.
Brazdil, R. (1992). Fluctuation of atmospheric precipitation in Europe. GeoJournal, 27: 275-291.
Brunnetti, M., Buffoni, L., Maugeri, M. and Nanni, T. (2000). Precipitation intensity trends in Northern Italy. International Journal of Climatology, 20: 1017-1031.
Brunnetti, M., Buffoni, L., Maugeri, M. and Nanni, T. (2001). Trends in daily intensity of Precipitation in Italy from 1951 to 1996. International Journal of Climatology, 21: 299-316.
Chang-Seng, D. (2007). Climate Variability and Climate Change Assessment for the Seychelles. Second National Communication (SNC) under the United Nations Framework Convention on Climate Change (UNFCCC), Ministry of Environment and Natural Resources, Republic of Seychelles, 56 pp.
Currie, R.G. and O'Brien, D.P. (1988). Periodic 18.6-year and cyclic 10 to 11-year signals in Northeastern United States precipitation data. International Journal of Climatology, 8(3): 255-281.
Dai, A. and Trenberth, K.E. (1998). Global variations in droughts and wet spells: 1900-1995. Geophysical Research Letters, 25: 3367-3370.
Gemmer, M., Becker, S. and Jiang, T. (2004). Observed monthly precipitation trends in China 1951-2002. Theoretical and Applied Climatology, 77: 39-45.
Houghton, J.T., Meira Filho, L.G., Callander, B.A., Harris, N., Kattenberg, A. and Maskell, K. (editors) (1996). Climate Change 1995: The Science of Climate Change. Cambridge University Press, Cambridge, 572 pp.
Iloeje, N.P. (2001). A New Geography of Nigeria. New Revised Edition. Longman Press, Nigeria.
Jenkins, G.M. and Watts, D.G. (1968). Spectral Analysis and Its Applications. Holden- Day, Oakland, CA, 525 pp.
Karl, T.R., Knight, R.W. and Plummer, N. (1995). Trends in high-frequency climate variability in the twentieth century. Nature, 377: 217-220.
Kleinbaum, D.G, Kupper, L.L., Nizam, A. and Muller, K.E. (2007). Applied Regression Analysis and Multivariable Methods. 4 th Edition, Duxbury Press, Pacific Grove, USA, 928 pp.
Kunkel, K.E., Pielker, R.A. and Changnon, S.A. (1999). Temporal fluctuation in winter and climate extremes that cause economic and human health impact: A review. International Journal of Climatology, 19: 1077-1098.
L’Hóte, Y., Mahe, G, Some, B. and Triboulet, J.P. (2002). Analysis of a Sahelian annual rainfall index from 1896 to 2000; the drought continues. Hydrological Sciences Journal, 47(4): 563-572.
Lamb, P.J. (1982). Persistence of Subsaharan drought. Nature, 299: 46-47.
Liu, Q., Yang, Z. and Cui, B. (2008). Spatial and temporal variability of annual precipitation during 1961-2006 in Yellow River Basin, China. Journal ofHydrology, 361: 330-338.
Makarau, A. and Jury, M. (1997). Predictability of Zimbabwe summer rainfall. International Journal of Climatology, 17: 1421-1432.
Mason, S.J., Waylen, P.R., Mimmack, G.M., Rajaratnam, B. and Harrison, J.M. (1999). Changes in extreme rainfall events in South Africa. Climate Change, 41: 249-257.
Mitchell, J.M., Dzerdzeevskii, B., Flohn, H., Hofmeyr, W.L., Lamb, H.H., Rao, K.N. and Wallen, C.C. (1966). Climatic change. Report of a working group of the
Commission for Climatology. World Meteorological Organization (WMO) Technical note No. 79. Geneva, 79 pp.
Mitchell, T.D. and Jones, P.D. (2005). An improved method of constructing a database of monthly climate observations and associated high-resolution grids. International Journal of Climatology,25: 693-712.
Montgomery, D.C., Peck, E.A. and Vining, G.G. (2006). Introduction to Linear Regression Analysis. 4 th Edition, John Wiley & Sons, UK, 640 pp.
New, M., Hulme, M. and Jones, P.D. (1999). Representing twentieth century spacetime climate variability. Part I: Development of a 1961-90 mean monthly terrestrial climatology. Journal of Climate,12: 829-856.
Nicholson, S.E., Some, B. and Kone, B. (2000). An analysis of recent rainfall conditions in West Africa, including the rainy seasons of the 1997 El Nino and the 1998 La Nina years. Journal of Climate,13(14): 2628-2640.
Ogolo, E.O. and Adeyemi, B. (2009). Variations and trends of some meteorological parameters at Ibadan, Nigeria. The Pacific Journal of Science and Technology, 10(2): 981-987.
Oguntunde, P.G, Friesen, J., van de Giesen, N. and Savenije, H.H.G. (2006). Hydroclimatology of the Volta River Basin in West Africa: Trends and variability from 1901 to 2002. Physics and Chemistry of the Earth, 31: 1180-1188.
Oguntunde, P.G., Abiodun, B.J., Olukunle, O.J. and Olufayo, A.A. (2011). Climate change - Trends and variability in pan evaporation and other climatic variables at Ibadan, Nigeria, 1973-2008. Meteorological Applications (in press).
Ojo, O. (1987). Rainfall trends in West Africa, 1901-1985. The influence of climate change and climatic variability on the hydrologic regime and water resources. Proceedings of the Vancouver Symposium, August 1987. IAHS Publication No. 168, IAHS Press, Wallingford, pp. 37-43.
Olaniran, O.J. (2002). Rainfall Anomalies in Nigeria: The Contemporary Understanding. Inaugural Lecture Series, University of Ilorin, Nigeria, 55 pp.
Osborn, T.J., Hulme, M., Jones, P.D. and Basnett, T.A. (2000). Observed trends in the daily intensity of United Kingdom precipitation. International Journal of Climatology, 20: 347-364.
Ozer, P., Erpicum, M., Demaree, M. and Vandiepenbeeck, M. (2003). Discussion of "Analysis of a Sahelian annual rainfall index from 1896 to 2000; the drought continues". Hydrological Sciences Journal, 48(3): 489-496.
Phillips, C.L., Parr, J.M. and Riskin, E.A. (2008). Signals, Systems and Transforms. 4 th Edition, Prentice-Hall, New Jersey, 779 pp.
Plummer, N.J., Salinger, A., Nicholls, N., Suppiah, R., Hennessy, K., Leighton, R.M., Trewin, B., Page, C.M. and Lough, J.M. (1999). Changes in climate extremes over the Australian region and New Zealand during the twentieth century. Climate Change, 42: 183-202.
Reed, R.J., Campbell, W.J., Rasmussen, L.A. and Rogers, R.G. (1961). Evidence of downward propagating annual wind reversal in the equatorial stratosphere. Journal of Geophysical Research, 66: 813-818.
Salmi, T., Maatta, A., Anttila, P., Ruoho-Airola, T. and Amnell, T. (2002). Detecting trends of annual values of atmospheric pollutants by the Mann-Kendall test and Sen’s slope estimates. Publications on Air Quality, No. 31. Helsinki, Finland, 41 pp.
Sankarasubramanian, A. and Vogel, R.M. (2003). Hydroclimatology of the continental United States. Geophysical Research Letters,30(7), 1363, doi:10.1029/ 2002GL015937.
Suppiah, R. and Hennessey, K.J. (1998). Trends in total rainfall, heavy rain events and numbers of dry days in Australia. International Journal of Climatology,18: 11411164.
Szilagyi, J. (2001). Modeled areal evaporation trends over the conterminous United States. Journal of Irrigation and Drainage Engineering, ASCE,127(4): 196-200.
Tarhule, A. and Woo, M. (1998). Changes in rainfall characteristics in northern Nigeria. International Journal of Climatology, 18: 1261-1271.
Tosic, I. and Unkasevic, M. (2005). Analysis of precipitation series for Belgrade. Theoretical and Applied Climatology, 80(1): 67-77.
Trenberth, K.E. (1998). Atmospheric moisture residence times and cycling: Implications for rainfall rates with climate change. Climate Change, 39: 667-694.
Vorosmarty, C.J. and Sahagian, D. (2000). Anthropogenic disturbance of the terrestrial water cycle. BioScience, 50: 753-765.
Wei, W.W. (1989). Time Series Analysis: Univariate and Multivariate Methods. Addison-Wesley Publishing Company, Inc., Redwood City, California, 478 pp.
Zhang, R. and Delworth, T.L. (2006). Impact of Atlantic multidecadal oscillations on India/Sahel rainfall and Atlantic hurricanes. Geophysical Research Letters, 33,L17712, doi:10.1029/2006GL026267 .
Author information
Authors and Affiliations
Rights and permissions
Copyright information
© 2012 Capital Publishing Company
About this chapter
Cite this chapter
Machiwal, D., Jha, M.K. (2012). Analysis of Trend and Periodicity in Long-Term Annual Rainfall Time Series of Nigeria. In: Hydrologic Time Series Analysis: Theory and Practice. Springer, Dordrecht. https://doi.org/10.1007/978-94-007-1861-6_12
Download citation
DOI: https://doi.org/10.1007/978-94-007-1861-6_12
Publisher Name: Springer, Dordrecht
Print ISBN: 978-94-007-1860-9
Online ISBN: 978-94-007-1861-6
eBook Packages: Earth and Environmental ScienceEarth and Environmental Science (R0)