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Integrated Modeling to Mitigate Climate Change Risk Due to Sea Level Rise

Imperiled Shorebirds on Florida Coastal Military Installations

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Climate

Abstract

Climate change is expected to significantly alter low-lying coastal and intertidal areas, which provide significant seasonal habitats for a variety of shoreline-dependent organisms. Many coastal military installations in Florida have significant coastal habitats and shoreline-dependent bird data strongly illustrate their seasonal importance for birds. Potential land use changes and population increases, coupled with uncertain predictions for sea level rise, storm frequency, and intensity have created a significant planning challenge for natural resource managers. This paper provides a framework to integrate multiscale climate, land cover, land use, and ecosystem information into a systematic tool to explore climate variability and change effects on habitat and population dynamics for the state-threatened residential Snowy Plover, and the migratory Piping Plover and Red Knot, on selected coastal Florida military sites in Northwest Florida. A proof-of-concept study is described that includes climate data, species distribution and a coastal wetland land cover model coupled with global sensitivity/uncertainty analysis methods. The results of these integrated models are used to explore habitat dynamics and management options within an uncertain world.

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Acknowledgements

This research was supported by the U.S. Department of Defense, through the Strategic Environmental Research and Development Program (SERDP), Projects SI-1699. J.B. Elsner and J.F. Donoghue at Florida State University are kindly acknowledged for their collaboration in research (project SI-1700 at FSU). Eglin AFB, Tyndall AFB, and Florida Wildlife Commission are gratefully acknowledged for the assistance with the Snowy Plover data and their active collaboration. Additionally Patricia Kelly and Chris Burney at Florida Wildlife Commission are kindly acknowledged. Permission was granted by the USACE Chief of Engineers to publish this material. The views and opinions expressed in this paper are those of the individual authors and not those of the U.S. Army, or other sponsor organizations.

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Authors and Affiliations

  1. Department of Agricultural and Biological Engineering, University of Florida, Gainesville, FL, USA

    M. Convertino, G. A. Kiker, M. L. Chu-Agor, R. Muñoz-Carpena & C. J. Martinez

  2. Department of Ecology and Evolution, SUNY Stony Brook, New York, NY, USA

    M. Aiello-Lammens & H. R. Akçakaya

  3. USACE ERDC Environmental Laboratory, Vicksburg, MS, USA

    R. A. Fischer

  4. US Army Engineer Research and Development Center, Concord, MA, USA

    I. Linkov

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  1. M. Convertino
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  2. G. A. Kiker
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  6. M. Aiello-Lammens
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Correspondence to M. Convertino .

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  1. US Army Corps of Engineers, Virginia Rd. 696, Concord, 01742, USA

    Igor Linkov

  2. US Army Engin. Research & Developm. Ctr., Halls Ferry Road 3909, Vicksburg, 39180-6199, USA

    Todd S. Bridges

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Convertino, M. et al. (2011). Integrated Modeling to Mitigate Climate Change Risk Due to Sea Level Rise. In: Linkov, I., Bridges, T. (eds) Climate. NATO Science for Peace and Security Series C: Environmental Security. Springer, Dordrecht. https://doi.org/10.1007/978-94-007-1770-1_23

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