Skip to main content
SpringerLink
Log in
Book cover

Climate pp 375–400Cite as

Adaptation in Coastal Systems

Vulnerability and Uncertainty Within Complex Socioecological Systems

  • Conference paper
  • First Online:

  • 1962 Accesses

Abstract

The vulnerability of coastal regions to adverse climatic and environmental drivers is well understood and has been demonstrated by several recent events, such as Hurricane Katrina, the oil spill along the U.S. Gulf Coast, and Cyclone Nargis in Myanmar. Trends including climate change, degradation of coastal ecosystems, population growth, and aging infrastructure are likely to increase vulnerabilities in the future. While there may be broad acceptance for including limited climate change-related options within current planning methodologies, new types of tools, policies, and decision-making approaches may be required that move beyond the mainstream processes to reduce risks while addressing the complex nature of these social/biological/physical systems. In particular, adaptation demands a fundamentally different decision regime than the current, historically focused methods. The objective of this chapter is to provide an introduction and conceptual overview to the section on adaptation to climate change within coastal systems. As a result of coastal group discussions in the 2010 NATO-Iceland meeting, we highlight four main points concerning adaptation to climate change in coastal areas:

  1. 1.

    Coasts have a set of layered vulnerabilities that contribute to current and future risks.

  2. 2.

    People matter in the adaptation process and should be included at multiple stages in the decision process.

  3. 3.

    Governance also plays a fundamental role in the adaptation process.

  4. 4.

    There are challenges to decision making in adaptation, but there are also a range of powerful concepts, tools, and case studies available to aid decision makers.

Within these sections, we highlight theories regarding adaptation within complex socioecological systems along with case studies to give examples of progressive analysis and planning for uncertain future events. The chapter concludes with a discussion of research and practice gaps for further consideration within the overall section.

This is a preview of subscription content, log in via an institution.

Chapter
USD   29.95
Price excludes VAT (USA)
  • Available as PDF
  • Read on any device
  • Instant download
  • Own it forever
eBook
USD   169.00
Price excludes VAT (USA)
  • Available as EPUB and PDF
  • Read on any device
  • Instant download
  • Own it forever
Softcover Book
USD   219.99
Price excludes VAT (USA)
  • Compact, lightweight edition
  • Dispatched in 3 to 5 business days
  • Free shipping worldwide - see info
Hardcover Book
USD   219.99
Price excludes VAT (USA)
  • Durable hardcover edition
  • Dispatched in 3 to 5 business days
  • Free shipping worldwide - see info

Tax calculation will be finalised at checkout

Purchases are for personal use only

Learn about institutional subscriptions

References

  1. Agrawala S, Crick F, Jette-Nantel S, Tepes A (2008) Empirical estimates of adaptation costs and benefits: a critical assessment. In: Agrawala S, Fankhauser S (eds) Economic aspects of adaptation to climate change. OECD, Paris

    Google Scholar 

  2. Agrawala S, Fankhauser S (eds) (2008) Economic aspects of adaptation to climate change: costs, benefits and policy instruments. OECD, Paris

    Google Scholar 

  3. Anderson JL, Hilborn RW, Lackey RT, Ludwig D (2003) Chapter 9: Watershed restoration—adaptive decision making in the face of uncertainty. In: Wissmar RC, Bisson PA (eds) Strategies for restoring river ecosystems: sources of variability and uncertainty in natural and managed systems. American Fisheries Society, Bethesda, pp 203–232

    Google Scholar 

  4. Association of British Insurers (2005) Assessing the risks of climate change: financial implications. Association of British Insurers, London

    Google Scholar 

  5. Bammer G (2005) Integration and implementation sciences: building a new specialization. Ecol Soc 10(2):6. (Online) URL: http://www.ecologyandsociety.org/vol10/iss2/art6/

  6. Bammer G, Smithson M (2009) Uncertainty and risk: multidisciplinary perspectives. Earthscan, London

    Google Scholar 

  7. Bender MA, Knutson TR, Tuleya RE, Sirutis JJ, Vecchi GA, Garner ST, Held IM (2010) Modeled impact of anthropogenic warming on the frequency of intense Atlantic hurricanes. Science 327:454–458

    Article  CAS  Google Scholar 

  8. Bennett EM, Carpenter SR, Peterson GD, Cumming GS, Zurek M, Pingali P (2003) Why global scenarios need ecology. Front Ecol 1(6):322–329

    Article  Google Scholar 

  9. Beven K (1993) Prophecy, reality and uncertainty in distributed hydrological modelling. Adv Water Res 16:41–51

    Article  Google Scholar 

  10. Beven K (2006) On undermining the science? Hydrol Process 20:1–6

    Article  Google Scholar 

  11. Beven K, Binley A (1992) The future of distributed models: model calibration and uncertainty prediction. Hydrol Process 6:279–298

    Article  Google Scholar 

  12. Blaikie P, Cannon T, Davis I, Wisner B (1994) At risk: natural hazards, people’s vulnerability, and disaster. Routledge, London

    Google Scholar 

  13. Bohannon J (2005) Hurricane Katrina: scientists weigh options for rebuilding New Orleans. Science 309(5742):1808–1809. doi:10.1126/science.309.5742.1808

    Article  CAS  Google Scholar 

  14. Bossell H (1998) Earth at a crossroads: paths to a sustainable future. Cambridge University Press, Cambridge

    Google Scholar 

  15. Burton I, Kates RW, White GF (1978) The environment as hazard. Oxford University Press, Oxford

    Google Scholar 

  16. Butts MB, Payne JT, Kristensen M, Madsen H (2004) An evaluation of the impact of model structure on hydrological modelling uncertainty for streamflow simulation. J Hydrol 298(1–4):242–266

    Article  Google Scholar 

  17. Cosmides L (1989) The logic of social exchange: has natural selection shaped how humans reason? Studies with the Wason selection task. Cognition 31:187–276

    Article  CAS  Google Scholar 

  18. Cosmides L, Tooby J (1996) Are humans good intuitive statisticians after all? Rethinking some conclusions from the literature on judgement under uncertainty. Cognition 58:1–73

    Article  Google Scholar 

  19. Costanza R, Ruth M (1998) Using dynamic modeling to scope environmental problems and build consensus. Environ Manage 22:183–195

    Article  Google Scholar 

  20. Cimato F, Mullen M (2010) Adapting to climate change: analysing the role of government. Defra Evidence and Analysis Series Paper 1

    Google Scholar 

  21. Cortner H, Moote MA (1999) The politics of ecosystem management. Island Press, Washington DC

    Google Scholar 

  22. Daniels S, Walker G (2001) Working through environmental conflict: the collaborative learning approach. Praeger, London

    Google Scholar 

  23. Draper D (1995) Assessment and propagation of model uncertainty. J R Stat Soc B Methodol 57(1):45–97

    Google Scholar 

  24. Emanuel K, Sundararajan R, Williams J (2008) Hurricanes and global warming: results from downscaling IPCC AR4 simulations. Bull Am Meteorol Soc 89(3):347–367. doi:10.1175/BAMS-89-3-347

    Article  Google Scholar 

  25. EC (European Commission) 2007. Limiting global climate change to 2 degree celsius – the way ahead for 2020 and beyond, impact assessment. Commission Staff Working Document, January

    Google Scholar 

  26. Figueira J, Greco S, Ehrgott M (2005) Multiple criteria decision analysis – State of the art surveys. Springer, New York

    Google Scholar 

  27. Gigerenzer G (2000) Adaptive thinking: rationality in the real world. Oxford University Press, Oxford

    Google Scholar 

  28. Gigerenzer G, Todd PM, ABC Research Group (1999) Simple heuristics that make us smart. Oxford University Press, Oxford

    Google Scholar 

  29. Gunderson L (1999) Resilience, flexibility and adaptive management – antidotes for spurious certitude? Conservation Ecology 3(1):7. (Online) URL: http://www.consecol.org/vol3/iss1/art7/

  30. Gual MA, Norgaard RB (2010) Bridging ecological and social systems coevolution: a review and proposal. Ecol Econ 69(4):707–717. doi:10.1016/j.ecolecon.2008.07.020 (February 15)

    Article  Google Scholar 

  31. Haigh N, Fisher J (2010) Using a “Real Options” approach to determine a future strategic plan for flood risk management in the Thames Estuary. Draft Government Economic Service Working Paper, Mar 2010

    Google Scholar 

  32. Herweijer C, Ranger N, Ward RET (2009) Adaptation to climate change: threats and opportunities for the insurance industry. Geneva Pap 34:360–380

    Article  Google Scholar 

  33. IPCC (2007) Summary for policymakers. In: Solomon SD, Manning QM, Chen Z, Marquis M, Averyt KB, Tignor M, Miller HL (eds) Climate change 2007: the physical science basis. Contribution of Working Group I to the fourth assessment report of the intergovernmental panel on climate change, Cambridge University Press, Cambridge/New York

    Google Scholar 

  34. Keeney R, Raiffa H (1976) Decisions with multiple objectives: preferences and value tradeoffs. Wiley, New York

    Google Scholar 

  35. Kahane A (1992) Changing the winds. Whole Earth 96:77–81

    Google Scholar 

  36. Kahneman D, Tversky A (1982) Intuitive prediction: biases and corrective procedures. In: Kahneman D, Slovic P, Tversky A (eds) Judgement under uncertainty: heuristics and biases. Cambridge University Press, Cambridge

    Google Scholar 

  37. Kahneman D, Tversky A (1996) On the reality of cognitive illusions. Psychol Rev 103(3):582–591

    Article  CAS  Google Scholar 

  38. Kates RW (1985) The interaction of climate and society. In: Kates RW, Ausubel JH, Berberian M (eds) Climate impact assessment: studies of the interaction of climate and society. John Wiley, New York, pp 3–36

    Google Scholar 

  39. Kates RW, Colten CE, Laska S, Leatherman SP (2006) Reconstruction of New Orleans after Hurricane Katrina: a research perspective. Proc Natl Acad Sci 103(40):14653–14660

    Article  CAS  Google Scholar 

  40. Kelly PM, Adger WN (2000) Theory and practice in assessing vulnerability to climate change and facilitating adaptation. Climate Change 47:325–352

    Article  Google Scholar 

  41. Kiker GA, Bridges TS, Varghese A, Seager T, Linkov I (2005) Application of multi-criteria decision analysis in environmental decision-making. Integr Environ Assess Manage 1(2):95–108

    Article  Google Scholar 

  42. Kiker CF, Milon JW, Hodges A (2001) Adaptive learning for science-based policy: the everglades restoration. Ecol Econ 37(3):403–416

    Article  Google Scholar 

  43. Kiker GA, Rivers-Moore NA, Kiker MK, Linkov I (2006) QnD: a scenario-based gaming system for modeling environmental processes and management decisions. In: Morel B, Linkov I (eds) Environmental security and environmental management: the role of risk assessment. Springer, Netherlands, pp 151–185

    Chapter  Google Scholar 

  44. Kleiner A (1996) The age of heretics: heroes, outlaws, and the forerunners of corporate change. Doubleday Currency, New York

    Google Scholar 

  45. Knutson TR, McBride JL, Chan J, Emanuel K, Holland G, Landsea C, Held I, Kossin JP, Srivastava AK, Sugi M (2010) Tropical cyclones and climate change. Nat Geosci. doi:10/1038/NGEO779

    Google Scholar 

  46. Kunreuther HC, Michel-Kerjan EO (2009) At war with the weather: managing large-scale risks in a new era of catastrophes. MIT Press, Cambridge

    Google Scholar 

  47. Lee KN (1993) Compass and gyroscope. Integrating science and politics for the environment. Island Press, Washington DC

    Google Scholar 

  48. Le Roux P, Maphai V (1992) The Mont Fleur scenarios: what will South Africa be like in 2002. In: Deeper news, vol 7(1). Global Business Network, Emeryville

    Google Scholar 

  49. Lloyd’s of London (2008) Coastal communities and climate change: maintaining future insurability. 360° Risk Project, www.Lloyds.com

  50. Lynam T, Drewry J, Higham W, Mitchell C (2010) Adaptive modelling for adaptive water quality management in the Great Barrier Reef region, Australia. Environ Modell Softw 25(11):1291–1301. doi:10.1016/j.envsoft.2009.09.013

    Article  Google Scholar 

  51. Lynam T, Jong W, Sheil D, Kusumanto T, and Evans K (2007) A review of tools for incorporating community knowledge, preferences, and values into decision making in natural resources management, Ecology and Society 12(1):5. http://www.ecologyandsociety.org/vol12/iss1/art5/

  52. Macey G (2007) Reclaiming the land: rethinking Superfund institutions, methods, and practices, 1st edn. Springer, New York

    Google Scholar 

  53. McGranahan G, Balk D, Anderson B (2007) The rising tide: assessing the risks of climate change and human settlements in low elevation coastal zones. Environ Urbanization 19(1):17–37

    Article  Google Scholar 

  54. Meadowcroft J (2009) Climate change governance: background paper to the 2010 world development report. World Bank Policy Research Working Paper 4941, Development Economics World Development Report Team, The World Bank

    Google Scholar 

  55. Meehl GA, Stocker TF, Collins WD, Friedlingstein P, Gaye AT, Gregory JM, Kitoh A, Knutti R, Murphy JM, Noda A, Raper SCB, Watterson IG, Weaver AJ, Zhao Z-C (2007) Global climate projections. In: Solomon S, Qin D, Manning M, Chen Z, Marquis M, Averyt KB, Tignor M, Miller HL (eds) Climate change 2007: the physical science basis. Contribution of Working Group I to the fourth assessment report of the intergovernmental panel on climate change, Cambridge University Press, Cambridge/New York

    Google Scholar 

  56. Millennium Ecosystem Assessment (2005) Scenarios Assessment Report. (Online) http://www.millenniumassessment.org/en/Scenarios.aspx

  57. Muñoz-Carpena R, Zajac Z, Kuo Y-M (2007) Evaluation of water quality models through global sensitivity and uncertainty analyses techniques: application to the vegetative filter strip model VFSMOD-W. Trans ASABE 50(5):1719–1732

    Google Scholar 

  58. Nicholls RJ (2007) Adaptation options for coastal areas and infrastructure: an analysis for 2030. A report for the UNFCCC Secretariat Financial and Technical Support Division, [online http://unfccc.int/cooperation_and_support/financial_mechanisms/financial_mechanism_gef/items/4054.php]

  59. Nicholls RJ, Hanson S, Herweijer C, Patmore N, Hallegatte S, Corfee-Morlot J, Chateau J, Muir-Wood R (2007a) Ranking port cities with high exposure and vulnerability to climate extremes – Exposure estimates. Environment Working Papers No. 1, OECD

    Google Scholar 

  60. Nicholls RJ, Wong PP, Burkett VR, Codignotto JO, Hay JE, McLean RF, Ragoonaden S, Woodroffe CD (2007b) Coastal systems and low-lying areas. In: Parry ML, Canziani OF, Palutikof JP, van der Linden PJ, Hanson CE (eds) Climate change 2007: impacts, adaptation and vulnerability. Contribution of Working Group II to the fourth assessment report of the intergovernmental panel on climate change, Cambridge University Press, Cambridge, pp 315–356

    Google Scholar 

  61. NOAA-Coastal Services Center. Moser (2009) Good morning America! The explosive U.S. awakening to the need for adaptation. NOAA Coastal Services Center. Online: http://www.csc.noaa.gov/publications/need-for-adaptation.pdf. Last accessed 14 May 2010]

  62. NRC (National Research Council) (2004) Adaptive management for water resources planning. Panel on Adaptive Management for Resource Stewardship, Committee to Assess the U.S. Army Corps of Engineers Methods of Analysis and Peer Review for Water Resources Project Planning, Water Science and Technology Board, Ocean Studies Board, Division on Earth and Life Studies. National Academies Press, Washington

    Google Scholar 

  63. NRC (National Research Council (U.S.)) (2009) Informing decisions in a changing climate. National Academies Press, Washington DC

    Google Scholar 

  64. Olsson P, Folke C (2004) Adaptive comanagement for building resilience in social-ecological systems. Environ Manage 34(1):75–90

    Article  Google Scholar 

  65. Pahl-Wostl C (2002) Towards sustainability in the water sector: the importance of human actors and processes of social learning. Aquat Sci 64:394–411

    Article  Google Scholar 

  66. Pahl-Wostl, Claudia, and International Conference on Adaptive and Integrated Water Management (2008) Adaptive and integrated water management: coping with complexity and uncertainty. Springer, Berlin/New York

    Google Scholar 

  67. Parry M, Arnell N, Berry P, Dodman D, Fankhauser S, Hope C, Kovats S, Nicholls R, Satterthwaite D, Tiffin R, Wheeler T (2009) Assessing the costs of adaptation to climate change: a review of the UNFCCC and other recent estimates. International Institute for Environment and Development and the Grantham Institute for Climate Change, Imperial College, London

    Google Scholar 

  68. Peterson GD, Cumming GS, Carpenter SR (2003) Scenario planning: a tool for conservation in an uncertain world. Conserv Biol 17(2):358–366

    Article  Google Scholar 

  69. Rahmstorf S, Cazenave A, Church JA, Hansen JE, Keeling RF, Parker DE, Somerville RCJ (2007) Recent climate observations compared to projections. Science 316:709

    Article  CAS  Google Scholar 

  70. Rahmstorf S (2007) A semi-empirical approach to projecting future sea level rise. Science 315:368–370

    Article  CAS  Google Scholar 

  71. Ranger N, Millner A, Dietz S, Fankhauser S, Lopez A, Ruta G (2010) Adaptation in the UK: a decision making process, Grantham/CCCEP Policy Brief. Available at: http://www2.lse.ac.uk/GranthamInstitute/publications/Policy/docs/PB-Ranger-adaptation-UK.pdf

  72. Raskin P, Gallopin G, Gutman A, Hammond A, Swart R (1998) Bending the curve: toward global sustainability. Stockholm Environment Institute, Stockholm

    Google Scholar 

  73. Ringland G (1998) Scenarios planning: managing for the future. Wiley, New York

    Google Scholar 

  74. Ringland G (2002) Scenarios in public policy. Wiley, Chichester

    Google Scholar 

  75. Ruitenbeek J and Cartier C (2001). The invisible wand: adaptive co-management as an emergent strategy in complex bio-economic systems. Occasional Paper No. 34, Center for International Forestry Research, Bogor

    Google Scholar 

  76. Scearce D and Fulton K (2004) What If? The Art of Scenario Thinking for Nonprofits. Global Business Network (www.gbn.com/whatif)

  77. Scheffer M (2009) Critical transitions in nature and society. Princeton University Press, Princeton

    Google Scholar 

  78. Scheffer M, Bascompte J, Brock WA, Brovkin V, Carpenter SR, Dakos V, Held H, van Nes EH, Rietkerk M, Sugihara G (2009) Early-warning signals for critical transitions. Nature 461(7260):53–59. doi:10.1038/nature08227

    Article  CAS  Google Scholar 

  79. Scott EM (1996) Uncertainty and sensitivity studies of models of environmental systems. In: Charnes JM, Morrice DJ, Brunner DT, Swain JJ Proceedings of the 28th conference on Winter simulation, Coronado, pp 255–259

    Google Scholar 

  80. Schoemaker PJH (1991) When and how to use scenario planning: a heuristic approach with illustration. J Forecasting 10:549–564

    Article  Google Scholar 

  81. Schoemaker PJH (1995) Scenario planning: a tool for strategic thinking. Sloan Manage Rev 36:25–40

    Google Scholar 

  82. Shirmohammadi A, Chaubey I, Harmel RD, Bosch DD, Muñoz-Carpena R, Dharmasri C, Sexton A, Arabi M, Wolfe ML, Frankenberger J, Graff C, Sohrabi TM (2006) Uncertainty in TMDL models. Trans ASABE 49(4):1033–1049

    Google Scholar 

  83. Smit B, Wandel J (2006) Adaptation, adaptive capacity and vulnerability. Glob Environ Change 16(3):282–292

    Article  Google Scholar 

  84. Sneddon C (2002) Water conflicts and river basins: the contradictions of co-management and scale in Northeast Thailand. Soc Nat Resour 15:725–741

    Article  Google Scholar 

  85. Tompkins EL, Adger WN (2005) Defining a response capacity for climate change. Environ Sci Policy 8(6):562–571

    Article  Google Scholar 

  86. Tol RSJ (2002) Estimates of the damage costs of climate change, Part: Benchmark estimates. Environ Resour Econ 21(1):47–73

    Article  Google Scholar 

  87. Turner BL II, Kasperson RE, Matson PA, McCarthy JJ, Corell RW, Christiansen L, Eckley N, Kasperson JX, Luers A, Martello ML, Polsky C, Pulsipher A, Schiller A (2003) A framework for vulnerability analysis in sustainability science. Proc Natl Acad Sci 100(14):8074–8079

    Article  CAS  Google Scholar 

  88. United Nations development Program (UNDP) (2010) Adaptation definitions and levels. Online: http://www.undp.org/climatechange/adapt/definitions.html

  89. Van der Heijden K (1996) The art of strategic conversation. Wiley, New York

    Google Scholar 

  90. Walters CJ (2007) Is adaptive management helping to solve fisheries problems? Ambio 36(4):304–307

    Article  Google Scholar 

  91. Walters CJ, Holling CS (1990) Large-scale management experiments and learning by doing. Ecology 71(6):2060–2068

    Article  Google Scholar 

  92. Wilkinson A, Elahi S, Eidinow E (2003) Riskworld scenarios. J Risk Res 6(4–6):297–334

    Google Scholar 

  93. Wollenberg E, Edmunds D, Buck L (2000) Using scenarios to made decisions about the future: anticipatory learning for the adaptive co-management of community forests. Landscape Urban Plann 47:65–77

    Article  Google Scholar 

  94. Hallegatte S, Ranger N, Mestre O, Dumas P, Corfee-Morlot J, Herweijer C, Muir Wood R (2011) Assessing climate change impacts, sea level rise and storm surge risk in Port Cities: a case study on Copenhagen. Clim Change 104:113–137. doi:10.1007/s10584-010-9978-3

    Article  Google Scholar 

  95. Beven KJ, Freer J (2001) Equifinality, data assimilation, and uncertainty estimation in mechanistic modelling of complex environmental systems. J Hydrol 249:11–29

    Article  Google Scholar 

Download references

Author information

Authors and Affiliations

  1. University of Florida, 110570, Gainesville, FL, 32611-0570, USA

    G. A. Kiker & R. Muñoz-Carpena

  2. Grantham Research Institute on Climate Change and the Environment, London School of Economics and Political Science, Houghton Street, London, WC2A 2AE, UK

    N. Ranger

  3. Zama Environmental, 2014 SE 30th, Gainesville, FL, 32641, USA

    M. Kiker

  4. US Army Engineer Research and Development Center, USACE, 696 Virginia Rd, Concord, MA, 01742, USA

    I. Linkov

Authors
  1. G. A. Kiker
    View author publications

    You can also search for this author in PubMed Google Scholar

  2. R. Muñoz-Carpena
    View author publications

    You can also search for this author in PubMed Google Scholar

  3. N. Ranger
    View author publications

    You can also search for this author in PubMed Google Scholar

  4. M. Kiker
    View author publications

    You can also search for this author in PubMed Google Scholar

  5. I. Linkov
    View author publications

    You can also search for this author in PubMed Google Scholar

Corresponding author

Correspondence to G. A. Kiker .

Editor information

Editors and Affiliations

  1. US Army Corps of Engineers, Virginia Rd. 696, Concord, 01742, USA

    Igor Linkov

  2. US Army Engin. Research & Developm. Ctr., Halls Ferry Road 3909, Vicksburg, 39180-6199, USA

    Todd S. Bridges

Rights and permissions

Reprints and permissions

Copyright information

© 2011 Springer Science+Business Media B.V.

About this paper

Cite this paper

Kiker, G.A., Muñoz-Carpena, R., Ranger, N., Kiker, M., Linkov, I. (2011). Adaptation in Coastal Systems. In: Linkov, I., Bridges, T. (eds) Climate. NATO Science for Peace and Security Series C: Environmental Security. Springer, Dordrecht. https://doi.org/10.1007/978-94-007-1770-1_20

Download citation

Publish with us

Policies and ethics

Search

Navigation