Scientific Inference – An Example

Abstract

In her book “Out of the Cave”, Edna Ullman-Margalit deals with archaeological reasoning. In general terms, the analysis is reasoning about reasoning, and, from the theoretical point of view, takes place on the meta level. In the following, I will use Ullman-Margalit’s analysis as a model of theoretical reasoning without taking any stand on the archaeological studies, or on the substantial theories about the findings of the Dead Sea Scrolls (Ullman-Margalit 2006, 6). My thesis is as follows: Edna Ullman-Margalit’s reconstruction of the hypothesis formation and the theoretical disputes related to the findings is relevant for the methodology of human sciences in general, including DSL. For this reason, I will first briefly describe the findings of Qumran and the competing theories explaining those findings (Ullman-Margalit, 23). After that, a summary of Ullman-Margalit’s theoretical analysis will be introduced. Finally, an attempt will be made to apply Ullman-Margalit’s model to DSL.