Abstract
Intuitively we would expect climate change associated with increased emissions of greenhouse gases (so-called global wanning) to be linked to substantial impacts in the Mediterranean. This region is vulnerable to present- day fluctuations in the weather, especially with respect to water supply for competing activities such as agriculture and tourism. The climate models used in the Third Assessment Report of IPCC Working Group I indicate substantial drying in the Mediterranean associated with future climate change, which can only exacerbate the current situation.
This work was supported by the European Union under Contracts ENV4-CT95-0121 (MEDALUS), EVK2- CT-2001-00118 (MICE) and EVK2-CT2001-00132 (PRUDENCE). The Hadley Centre climate model data were supplied by the Climate Impacts LINK project (funded by the UK Department of the Environment, Food and Rural Affairs).
This is a preview of subscription content, log in via an institution to check access.
Access this chapter
Tax calculation will be finalised at checkout
Purchases are for personal use only
Preview
Unable to display preview. Download preview PDF.
References
European Environment Agency (2001) Indicator Fact Sheet Signals 2001-Chapter Tourism Y1R01TO08 Tourism Arrivals.
Frich, P., Alexander, L.V., Della-Marta, P., Gleason, B., Haylock, M, Tank, A.M.G.K., and Peterson, T. (2002) Observed coherent changes in climatic extremes during the second half of the twentieth century. Climate Research 19, 193–212.
Giorgi, F., Hewitson, B. and others (2001) Regional climate information-evaluation and projections. Chapter 10 in Climate Change 2001: The Scientific Basis. Contribution of Working Group I to the Third Assessment Report of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (eds. J.T. Houghton and others), Cambridge University Press, Cambridge, 583–638.
Gumbel, E.J. (1958) Statistics of Extremes. Columbia University Press, New York.
Houghton, J.T., Meira Filho, L.G., Callander, B.A.,. Harris, N., Kattenberg, A. and Maskell, K., eds. (1996) Climate Change 1995: The Science of Climate Change. Contribution of Working Group I to the Second Assessment Report of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change, Cambridge University Press, Cambridge.
Houghton, J.T., Ding, Y., Griggs, DJ., Noguer, M., van der Linden, P.J., Dai, X., Maskell, K., and Johnson, CA., eds. (2001) Climate Change 2001: The Scientific Basis. Contribution of Working Group I to the Third Assessment Report of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change, Cambridge University Press, Cambridge
IPCC (2001) Summary for policymakers. A report of Working Group I of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change. In Climate Change 2001: The Scientific Basis. Contribution of Working Group I to the Third Assessment Report of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (eds. J.T. Houghton and others), Cambridge University Press, Cambridge, 1–20. (Can be downloaded from http://www.ipcc.ch/pub/spm22-01.pdf).
Johns, T.C., Carnell, R.E., Crossley, J.F., Gregory, J.M., Mitchell, J.F.B., Senior, CA., Tett., S.F.B., and Wood, R.A. (1997) The second Hadley Centre coupled ocean-atmosphere GCM: model description, spinup and validation. Climate Dynamics 13, 103–134.
Jones, P.D. and Moberg, A. (2003) Hemispheric and large-scale surface air temperature variations: an extensive revision and an update to 2001. Journal of Climate 16, 206–223.
Kalnay, E., Kanamitsu, M., Kistler, R., Collins, W., Deaven, D., Gandin, L., Iredell, M., Saha, S., White, G., Woollen, J., Zhu, Y., Chelliah, M, Ebisuzaki, W., Higgins, W., Janowiak, J., Mo, K.C, Ropelewski, C, Wang, J., Leetmaa, A., Reynolds, R., Jenne, R. and Joseph, D. (1996) The NCEP/NCAR 40-year reanalysis project. Bulletin of the American Meteorological Society 77, 437–471.
Koppen, W. (1936) Das geographische System der Klimate, in Köppen, W. and Geiger, R. (eds) Handbuch der Climatologie 3, Gebrüder Borntraeger, Berlin.
Nakicenovic, N. and Swart, R., eds. (2000) Emission Scenarios. IPCC Special Report on Emission Scenarios. Cambridge University Press, Cambridge. (Can be downloaded from http://www.grida.no/climate/ipcc/emission/index.htm).
Palutikof, J.P. (2003) Analysis of Mediterranean climate data: measured and modeled, in Bolle, H.-J. (ed) Mediterranean Climate: Variability and Trends Springer, Berlin, 125–132.
Palutikof, J.P., Goodess, CM., Watkins, S.J., and Holt, T. (2002) Generating rainfall and temperature scenarios at multiple sites: examples from the Mediterranean. Journal of Climate 15, 3529–3548.
Palutikof, J.P., Brabson, B.B., Lister, D.H. and Adcock, S.T. (1998) A review of methods to calculate extreme wind speeds. Meteorological Applications 6, 119–132.
Richardson, C.W. (1981) Stochastic simulation of daily precipitation, temperature and solar radiation. Water Resoures Research 17, 182–190.
Tank, A.M.G.K., Wijngaard, J.B., Können, G.P., Böhm, R., Demaree, G., Gocheva, A., Mileta, M., Pashiardis, S., Hejkrlik, L., Kern-Hansen, C, Heino, R., Bessemoulin, P., Muller-Westermeier, G., Tzanakou, M., Szalai, S., Palsdottir, T., Fitzgerald, D., Rubin, S., Capaldo, M., Maugeri, M., Leitass, A., Bukantis, A., Aberfeld, R., Van Engelen, A.F.V., Forland, E., Mietus, M., Coelho, F., Mares, C, Razuvaev, V., Nieplova, E., Cegnar, T., Lopez, J.A., Dahlstrom, B., Moberg, A., Kirchhofer, W., Ceylan, A., Pachaliuk, O., Alexander, L.V. and Petrovic, P.(2002) Daily dataset of 20th-century surface air temperature and precipitation series for the European Climate Assessment. International Journal of Climatology 22, 1441–1453.
Trigo, R.M. and Palutikof, J.P. (1999) Simulation of daily maximum and minimum temperature over Portugal: a neural network approach. Climate Research 13, 45–59.
Trigo, R.M., Osborn, T.J., and Corte-Real, J.M. (2002) The North Atlantic Oscillation influence on Europe: climate impacts and associated physical mechanisms. Climate Research 20, 9–17.
Wilby, R.L., Wigley, T.M.L., Conway, D., Jones, P.D., Hewitson, B.C., Main, J., and Wilks, D.S. (1998) Statistical downscaling of general circulation model output: a comparison of methods. Water Resources Research 34, 2995–3008.
Wilks, D.S., and Wilby, R.L. (1999) The weather generation game: a review of stochastic weather models. Progress in Physical Geography 23, 329–357
Author information
Authors and Affiliations
Editor information
Editors and Affiliations
Rights and permissions
Copyright information
© 2004 Springer Science+Business Media Dordrecht
About this paper
Cite this paper
Palutikof, J.P., Holt, T. (2004). Climate change and the occurrence of extremes: some implications for the Mediterranean Basin. In: Marquina, A. (eds) Environmental Challenges in the Mediterranean 2000–2050. NATO Science Series, vol 37. Springer, Dordrecht. https://doi.org/10.1007/978-94-007-0973-7_4
Download citation
DOI: https://doi.org/10.1007/978-94-007-0973-7_4
Publisher Name: Springer, Dordrecht
Print ISBN: 978-1-4020-1949-4
Online ISBN: 978-94-007-0973-7
eBook Packages: Springer Book Archive