Food Security Prospects in the Maghreb

Abstract

Food security in the Maghreb countries appears to have been improving in the past thirty years, at least in terms of availability. Although there is little consistent data available for certain countries, calorie availability in Morocco has increased from just over 1700 Kcals in 1964/1966 to almost 3000 Kcal in 1996/1998. However, food distribution is not even, and economic access among the poorer groups does not ensure consumption of an adequate, varied diet, especially by the vulnerable groups. This paper will examine the current trends and discuss key factors, which determine food security in the Maghreb countries and the limitations of the information currently available that would permit a comprehensive projection of food security to 2050.In spite of the large state investment in the agricultural sector, and the importance of the latter in the GDP (Algeria: 10%; Morocco: 12.6%; Tunisia: 12.2%), staple foods are still largely imported. In the three countries, agricultural production fluctuates greatly each year, as most of it is rainfed. According to FAOSTAT, for the period 1997/99, imports covered large portions of the total supply of cereals (Algeria: 68%; Morocco: 42%; Tunisia: 59%). The figures are even higher for sugar (Morocco: 54%; Algeria and Tunisia: 100%) and vegetable oils (Algeria: 80%; Morocco: 64%; Tunisia: 79%). The situation is not better for non-staple foods. Domestic production of milk hardly covers the effective demand and is far from meeting the nutritionally recommended level of intake in all three countries. In Morocco, the Ministry of Agriculture has set a strategy for production through 2020. It aims to increase the level of self-sufficiency for most agricultural products: soft wheat (70%), durum wheat (80%), barley (90%), corn (30%), sugar (76–100%), vegetable oils (50–60%) and legumes (70%). The strategy also sets objectives for agricultural exports (vegetables, fruits and olive oil), as this sector contributes to the agricultural balance of trade. This strategy of self-sufficiency appears ambitious in the face of the natural and economic constraints on the horizon. Moreover, the concept of food self-sufficiency has long been superceded by that of food security, which requires, in addition to availability, stability and access to food. In this framework, a country’s food security is not assessed solely in terms of supply and demand (national level), but also in terms of household access (income, regions) and individual access within the household (male/female, adult/child). Using this analysis, the indicators for Morocco are troublesome. In terms of household food security and population nutritional status, if the situation is better than in most other African countries, it is still far from adequate. While stunted growth is still prevalent among children (Algeria: 18%; Morocco: 23%; Tunisia: 8%), all three countries are now going through an important nutrition transition. Indeed, increasing proportions of the population (more than one third in Morocco and Tunisia) are overweight or obese. These nutrition conditions are likely to put even more strain on public sector resources.